Freeport-McMoRan and Albemarle Undervalued Amid Commodity Price Volatility
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 21 2026
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Copper Price Sensitivity: Freeport-McMoRan's earnings presentations indicate that with copper priced at $4 per pound, EBITDA could reach $11 billion by 2027, while the current price of $5.66 suggests an estimated EBITDA of $17.6 billion, resulting in an attractive EV/EBITDA multiple of just 5.5 times based on its enterprise value of $96.9 billion.
- Production Expansion in Indonesia: Despite a tragic accident last year, Freeport is set to ramp up production in Indonesia over the coming years, which is expected to significantly enhance its copper sales volumes, thereby boosting investor confidence in the company's growth prospects.
- Albemarle's Business Restructuring: Following a sharp decline in lithium prices that led to losses in 2022 and 2023, Albemarle has divested non-core businesses and cut costs, positioning itself to benefit from a recent price recovery, with projected EBITDA of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion in 2026, resulting in an EV/EBITDA ratio of 9.4, indicating strong investment value.
- Growing EV Investment: The increasing global investment in electric vehicles is driving up lithium demand, and while Albemarle was not included in the Motley Fool Stock Advisor's top picks, its market outlook remains positive with significant growth potential anticipated by 2026.
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Analyst Views on ALB
Wall Street analysts forecast ALB stock price to fall
20 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
10 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 178.470
Low
85.00
Averages
149.79
High
210.00
Current: 178.470
Low
85.00
Averages
149.79
High
210.00
About ALB
Albemarle Corporation is engaged in transforming essential resources into critical ingredients for mobility, energy, connectivity, and health. The Company’s segments include Energy Storage, Specialties, and Ketjen. The Company's Energy Storage segment develops and manufactures a range of basic lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium chloride. Its Specialties segment optimizes its portfolio of bromine and highly specialized lithium solutions. Its Specialties segment serves a variety of industries, including energy, mobility, connectivity, and health. Specialty products are essential in both internal combustion and electric vehicles, from high-voltage cables and powertrains to airbags and tires. Its lithium specialties business also provides technical services, including the handling and use of reactive lithium products. Its Ketjen segment includes performance catalyst solutions and a 49% ownership interest in a refining solutions joint venture.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
ALB Options Contract Analysis and Investment Opportunities
- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $175.00 put option is $13.25, and if an investor sells this contract, their effective purchase price for the stock would be $161.75, representing about a 2% discount to the current price of $179.41, making it attractive for those interested in ALB shares.
- Yield Potential Analysis: Should the put option expire worthless, it would yield a 7.57% return on the cash commitment, equating to an annualized return of 55.27%, highlighting the potential attractiveness of this strategy.
- Call Option Returns: The $185.00 call option has a current bid of $15.65, and if an investor buys ALB shares at $179.41 and sells this contract, they could achieve an 11.84% total return if the stock is called away at expiration, showcasing the profit potential of this strategy.
- Risk Assessment: Current analytics indicate a 61% chance that the put option will expire worthless and a 47% chance for the call option, suggesting that investors should weigh these risk factors to optimize their investment decisions.
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Tesla Reports 14% Drop in Q1 Deliveries Amidst Increased Competition
- Declining Deliveries: Tesla reported Q1 vehicle deliveries of 358,023, a 14% decrease from the previous quarter, although this reflects a 6% year-over-year increase, indicating the need for improved sales strategies amidst fierce competition to maintain market share.
- Production Challenges: The production volume for Q1 was 408,386 vehicles, falling short of analysts' expectations of 370,000, highlighting a gap between production capacity and market demand that could impact future financial performance.
- New Product Strategy: Tesla has ceased production of its flagship Model S and X vehicles, reallocating production lines to develop the Optimus robot, although this shift has yet to yield significant sales, reflecting uncertainty in the company's new business direction.
- Energy Business Performance: The deployment of battery energy storage systems in Q1 was 8.8 GWh, down from 10.4 GWh a year earlier, indicating increased competition in the energy market that may affect Tesla's long-term growth potential in renewable energy.
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Leapmotor Delivers Over 110,000 Vehicles in Q1
- Delivery Growth: Leapmotor delivered 110,155 new energy vehicles in Q1 2025, marking a nearly 26% year-over-year increase and exceeding 100,000 units for the fourth consecutive quarter, demonstrating strong performance in a competitive market.
- Market Competition: While BYD remains the market leader with 688,993 cars sold in Q1, its sales dropped 30% year-over-year, reflecting the sluggishness of the Chinese automotive market and intensifying competition.
- Export Target Setting: Leapmotor aims to sell 1 million cars in China this year, with an export target of 100,000 to 150,000 units, and although it does not disclose overseas sales figures, its domestic performance has outpaced most rivals.
- Global Expansion Strategy: Leapmotor's partnership with Stellantis is enhancing its global market presence, with over 800 sales and service outlets in Europe by the end of 2025 and the establishment of its first overseas innovation center in Munich, Germany, showcasing its commitment and capability for internationalization.
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Middle East Crisis Fuels Electric Vehicle Demand Surge
- Surge in EV Interest: Since the onset of the Iran war, inquiries for new electric vehicles in the U.S. have surged by 28%, while used EV inquiries rose by 15%, indicating a significant consumer shift towards EVs, even as traditional automakers pivot back to internal combustion engines.
- Fuel Prices Impact Buying Behavior: Elevated gas prices have made electric vehicles more appealing for long-distance drivers; however, Cox Automotive anticipates that consumer buying habits will require over six months of sustained high gas prices to change significantly, highlighting the slow pace of market transition.
- Decline in EV Sales: Despite increased inquiries, Cox forecasts a 28% drop in U.S. EV sales for the first quarter, down to 212,600 units, reflecting limited market acceptance of electric vehicles amidst shifting consumer preferences.
- Global Market Transformation: The energy shock from the Iran war is expected to accelerate EV adoption in Europe and Asia, particularly in countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, where consumers are increasingly inclined to choose affordable models from Chinese manufacturers.
See More
Chile's Lithium Production Expected to Continue Growing
- Production Growth Outlook: Chile's lithium production is expected to increase by 10.1% to 64,100 tonnes in 2025, primarily driven by SQM's capacity expansion in the Salar de Atacama, indicating operationally driven growth potential in the near term.
- Policy Background Shift: Following President Kast's assumption of office in March 2026, the Chilean government merged the Ministries of Mining and Economy, signaling a closer alignment of mining policy with economic objectives, which could influence the medium- to long-term direction of the lithium sector.
- Market-Oriented Adjustments: The new administration favors lower regulatory and tax burdens and improved legal certainty to attract a broader pool of domestic and international investment, although the operational framework for lithium remains largely unchanged in the short term.
- Long-Term Growth Prospects: Chile's lithium production is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.9% to 87,200 tonnes by 2035, with future developments relying on regulatory clarity and project financing capabilities.
See More
ALB Options Contract Analysis and Investment Opportunities
- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $180.00 put option is $13.90, and if an investor sells this contract, they commit to buying the stock at $180.00, effectively lowering their cost basis to $166.10, which is approximately a 1% discount from the current price of $181.00, making it attractive for those interested in ALB shares.
- Yield Potential Analysis: Should the put option expire worthless, it would yield a 7.72% return on the cash commitment, equating to an annualized return of 65.55%, highlighting the strategy's appeal amid a current implied volatility of 67%.
- Covered Call Opportunity: The $182.50 covered call option has a current bid of $14.15, and if an investor buys ALB shares at $181.00 and sells this call, they could achieve an 8.65% total return if the stock is called away at expiration, showcasing the potential profitability of this strategy.
- Risk-Reward Tradeoff: The probability of the call option expiring worthless is 47%, allowing investors to retain both their shares and the premium collected, with an annualized yield boost of 66.36%, necessitating careful market assessment while pursuing returns.
See More
ALB Options Contract Analysis and Investment Opportunities
- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $175.00 put option is $13.25, and if an investor sells this contract, their effective purchase price for the stock would be $161.75, representing about a 2% discount to the current price of $179.41, making it attractive for those interested in ALB shares.
- Yield Potential Analysis: Should the put option expire worthless, it would yield a 7.57% return on the cash commitment, equating to an annualized return of 55.27%, highlighting the potential attractiveness of this strategy.
- Call Option Returns: The $185.00 call option has a current bid of $15.65, and if an investor buys ALB shares at $179.41 and sells this contract, they could achieve an 11.84% total return if the stock is called away at expiration, showcasing the profit potential of this strategy.
- Risk Assessment: Current analytics indicate a 61% chance that the put option will expire worthless and a 47% chance for the call option, suggesting that investors should weigh these risk factors to optimize their investment decisions.
See More
Tesla Reports 14% Drop in Q1 Deliveries Amidst Increased Competition
- Declining Deliveries: Tesla reported Q1 vehicle deliveries of 358,023, a 14% decrease from the previous quarter, although this reflects a 6% year-over-year increase, indicating the need for improved sales strategies amidst fierce competition to maintain market share.
- Production Challenges: The production volume for Q1 was 408,386 vehicles, falling short of analysts' expectations of 370,000, highlighting a gap between production capacity and market demand that could impact future financial performance.
- New Product Strategy: Tesla has ceased production of its flagship Model S and X vehicles, reallocating production lines to develop the Optimus robot, although this shift has yet to yield significant sales, reflecting uncertainty in the company's new business direction.
- Energy Business Performance: The deployment of battery energy storage systems in Q1 was 8.8 GWh, down from 10.4 GWh a year earlier, indicating increased competition in the energy market that may affect Tesla's long-term growth potential in renewable energy.
See More
Leapmotor Delivers Over 110,000 Vehicles in Q1
- Delivery Growth: Leapmotor delivered 110,155 new energy vehicles in Q1 2025, marking a nearly 26% year-over-year increase and exceeding 100,000 units for the fourth consecutive quarter, demonstrating strong performance in a competitive market.
- Market Competition: While BYD remains the market leader with 688,993 cars sold in Q1, its sales dropped 30% year-over-year, reflecting the sluggishness of the Chinese automotive market and intensifying competition.
- Export Target Setting: Leapmotor aims to sell 1 million cars in China this year, with an export target of 100,000 to 150,000 units, and although it does not disclose overseas sales figures, its domestic performance has outpaced most rivals.
- Global Expansion Strategy: Leapmotor's partnership with Stellantis is enhancing its global market presence, with over 800 sales and service outlets in Europe by the end of 2025 and the establishment of its first overseas innovation center in Munich, Germany, showcasing its commitment and capability for internationalization.
See More
Middle East Crisis Fuels Electric Vehicle Demand Surge
- Surge in EV Interest: Since the onset of the Iran war, inquiries for new electric vehicles in the U.S. have surged by 28%, while used EV inquiries rose by 15%, indicating a significant consumer shift towards EVs, even as traditional automakers pivot back to internal combustion engines.
- Fuel Prices Impact Buying Behavior: Elevated gas prices have made electric vehicles more appealing for long-distance drivers; however, Cox Automotive anticipates that consumer buying habits will require over six months of sustained high gas prices to change significantly, highlighting the slow pace of market transition.
- Decline in EV Sales: Despite increased inquiries, Cox forecasts a 28% drop in U.S. EV sales for the first quarter, down to 212,600 units, reflecting limited market acceptance of electric vehicles amidst shifting consumer preferences.
- Global Market Transformation: The energy shock from the Iran war is expected to accelerate EV adoption in Europe and Asia, particularly in countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, where consumers are increasingly inclined to choose affordable models from Chinese manufacturers.
See More
Chile's Lithium Production Expected to Continue Growing
- Production Growth Outlook: Chile's lithium production is expected to increase by 10.1% to 64,100 tonnes in 2025, primarily driven by SQM's capacity expansion in the Salar de Atacama, indicating operationally driven growth potential in the near term.
- Policy Background Shift: Following President Kast's assumption of office in March 2026, the Chilean government merged the Ministries of Mining and Economy, signaling a closer alignment of mining policy with economic objectives, which could influence the medium- to long-term direction of the lithium sector.
- Market-Oriented Adjustments: The new administration favors lower regulatory and tax burdens and improved legal certainty to attract a broader pool of domestic and international investment, although the operational framework for lithium remains largely unchanged in the short term.
- Long-Term Growth Prospects: Chile's lithium production is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.9% to 87,200 tonnes by 2035, with future developments relying on regulatory clarity and project financing capabilities.
See More
ALB Options Contract Analysis and Investment Opportunities
- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $180.00 put option is $13.90, and if an investor sells this contract, they commit to buying the stock at $180.00, effectively lowering their cost basis to $166.10, which is approximately a 1% discount from the current price of $181.00, making it attractive for those interested in ALB shares.
- Yield Potential Analysis: Should the put option expire worthless, it would yield a 7.72% return on the cash commitment, equating to an annualized return of 65.55%, highlighting the strategy's appeal amid a current implied volatility of 67%.
- Covered Call Opportunity: The $182.50 covered call option has a current bid of $14.15, and if an investor buys ALB shares at $181.00 and sells this call, they could achieve an 8.65% total return if the stock is called away at expiration, showcasing the potential profitability of this strategy.
- Risk-Reward Tradeoff: The probability of the call option expiring worthless is 47%, allowing investors to retain both their shares and the premium collected, with an annualized yield boost of 66.36%, necessitating careful market assessment while pursuing returns.
See More
