EU Illicit Cigarette Consumption Leads to €16.7 Billion Tax Revenue Loss
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 03 2026
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Current Illicit Consumption: A recent KPMG study reveals that illicit cigarette consumption in the EU is projected to reach 10.3% of total consumption by 2025, resulting in an estimated €16.7 billion tax revenue loss, highlighting significant challenges in combating illicit trade in the region.
- Market Impact Analysis: Across 38 European countries, illicit consumption amounts to 55.3 billion cigarettes, leading to approximately €22.4 billion in state budget revenue losses, indicating the severe impact of illicit trade on the entire tobacco and nicotine value chain.
- Surge in Counterfeits: The consumption of counterfeit cigarettes is expected to hit 18.3 billion in 2025, accounting for 44% of illicit consumption and reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 20%, which not only exacerbates market chaos but also poses a direct threat to legitimate businesses.
- Characteristics of the French Market: France has emerged as the largest illicit cigarette market in Europe, with an illicit share of 41.4%, equating to 20.5 billion cigarettes, of which counterfeits account for nearly 9.7 billion, illustrating the negative effects of excessive taxation and product bans on market dynamics.
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Analyst Views on PM
Wall Street analysts forecast PM stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 179.440
Low
175.00
Averages
191.95
High
210.00
Current: 179.440
Low
175.00
Averages
191.95
High
210.00
About PM
Philip Morris International Inc. is an international tobacco company. The Company’s product portfolio primarily consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products. Its smoke-free business (SFB) also includes wellness and healthcare products, as well as consumer accessories, such as lighters and matches. The Company’s segments include Europe Region; South and Southeast Asia, Commonwealth of Independent States, Middle East and Africa Region (SSEA, CIS & MEA); East Asia, Australia & PMI Global Travel Retail (EA, AU & PMI GTR), and Americas Region. The Company's brands include Marlboro, HEETS, IQOS, IQOS ILUMA, TEREA, VEEV and ZYN. Its IQOS smoke-free product brand portfolio includes heated tobacco and nicotine-containing vapor products. Its international cigarette brands are Chesterfield, L&M, and Philip Morris. It also owns a number of local cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe and Sampoerna A in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strategic Restructuring: These appointments align with the new organizational model implemented in early 2026, aimed at enhancing overall business performance through strengthened regional leadership, ensuring that the regional presidents report directly to Frederic de Wilde, CEO of the International Business Unit.
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- IPO Performance: SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 per share, opened at $150, and is currently trading at $180, achieving a market cap of $2.1 trillion, which reflects strong market expectations for its future growth.
- Valuation Risks: Despite its massive valuation, SpaceX trades at 113 times its projected 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, indicating concerns about its profitability, especially as losses in its space and AI divisions offset Starlink's profits.
- Profitability Challenges: Currently unprofitable, SpaceX's losses in its space and newly integrated AI divisions completely erase Starlink's profits, leading analysts to advise against investing in its stock until the hype subsides to avoid risks associated with high valuations.
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See More
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- Consumer Sentiment Improvement: The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 48.9 in June from a record low of 44.8 in May, indicating cautious optimism among consumers despite being the second-lowest level since the 1970s, reflecting lingering economic concerns.
- Energy Price Impact: A significant drop in oil prices, with U.S. crude down 3.4% to $84.76 per barrel, driven by optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran deal, served as a primary catalyst for the sentiment increase, particularly benefiting middle and lower-income households who are more sensitive to fuel costs.
- Strong Retail Spending: The rise in consumer morale aligns with data showing U.S. retail sales increased in May, driven by e-commerce growth, suggesting that household demand remains robust despite high borrowing costs and uneven inflation, as reported by the National Retail Federation.
- Divergent Stock Performance: Consumer staples stocks like Tyson Foods and Philip Morris saw slight gains, while consumer discretionary stocks faced pressure, with the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) rising about 0.1% and the consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) slipping 0.7%, indicating varying market confidence across sectors.
See More
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- Quarterly Dividend Declaration: Philip Morris International's Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $1.47 per common share, payable on July 20, 2026, reflecting the company's stable cash flow and commitment to shareholders.
- Dividend Payment Dates: The record date for the dividend is June 25, 2026, with the ex-dividend date also set for June 25, which will influence investors' holding decisions and may attract more long-term investors.
- Smoke-Free Product Market: As of December 31, 2025, Philip Morris's smoke-free products are sold in over 105 markets, with 43 million legal-age consumers using them, indicating significant progress in the company's transformation efforts.
- R&D Investment: Since 2008, Philip Morris has invested over $16 billion in developing smoke-free products, demonstrating the company's commitment to reducing cigarette sales and promoting the commercialization of healthier alternatives.
See More
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- Dividend Payment Schedule: The dividend is payable on July 20, with a record date of June 25 and an ex-dividend date also on June 25, ensuring shareholders receive timely returns and bolstering investor confidence.
- Consistent Dividend Performance: The company has announced a dividend of $1.47 for four consecutive quarters, indicating its ability to uphold a stable dividend policy amid market challenges, reflecting management's confidence in future cash flows.
- Market Impact Analysis: Despite facing pressures from a $500 million impairment in Canada and ruble depreciation, the stable dividend policy may alleviate investor concerns regarding the company's long-term profitability, enhancing its appeal in the consumer staples sector.
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