Nvidia Corp Faces Stock Volatility Concerns Amid AI Bubble Fears
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 23 2026
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: Benzinga
- Stock Performance Concerns: Nvidia (NVDA) has seen little price movement since August, raising investor concerns about its future profitability amid fears of an AI bubble, which could lead to further stock declines.
- Options Market Dynamics: The implied volatility data for options indicates that put options are priced higher than call options for the February 20 expiration, suggesting that investors are prioritizing downside protection, reflecting fears of a price drop.
- Future Price Expectations: Using the Black-Scholes model, NVDA's stock is projected to fluctuate between $173.44 and $201.70 by February 20, indicating high uncertainty in market price expectations that could influence investor decisions.
- Bullish Trading Strategy: Investors might consider a 197.50/200 bull call spread expiring on February 20, with a maximum profit potential of $174, representing a nearly 229% return, indicating that there are still opportunities for profit in the current market environment.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 190.050
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 190.050
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Earnings Expectations: UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated his Buy rating and raised the price target from $235 to $245, anticipating Nvidia's revenue to reach approximately $76 billion, surpassing the market's expectations of $74 billion to $75 billion for the next quarter.
- Gross Margin Outlook: Despite investor skepticism regarding the 75% gross margin guidance, Arcuri stated that there are no near-term factors likely to impact this figure, indicating Nvidia's stability amid competitive threats from Google and Broadcom.
- Market Signals: As the GTC conference approaches, Nvidia's management appears frustrated with prevailing market doubts, yet bullish supply chain signals support the company's prospects for growth and margin sustainability.
See More
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- Market Bubble Phenomenon: Predictions of an AI bubble bursting have not materialized, yet froth remains in the market as unprofitable companies are bid up based on expectations of heavy AI infrastructure spending, prompting investors to reassess risks.
- Microsoft's Stock Volatility: Microsoft (MSFT) shares soared over the past year due to investments in OpenAI and AI infrastructure, but dropped over 16% in 2026, with analysts predicting that its AI spending will pressure profitability; Stifel downgraded the stock and cut its price target by nearly 30%.
- Diversification Strategy: While Microsoft still holds long-term value, its price fluctuations highlight the importance of a diversified AI investment portfolio, suggesting that investors anchor their holdings with a clear leader to navigate future growth in AI-related companies.
- Nvidia's Growth Potential: Nvidia (NVDA) expects $3 trillion to $4 trillion to be spent on AI infrastructure by 2030, as reiterated by CFO Colette Kress, indicating that the company will benefit from growth in the AI sector, with a reasonable forward P/E ratio of about 25, making it suitable for long-term investment.
See More
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- Significant Revenue Growth: Fastly's Q4 revenue increased by 23% year-over-year to $172.6 million, driven by a 19% rise in network services sales to $130.8 million and a 32% surge in security revenue to $35.4 million, showcasing the company's robust performance in the cloud computing market.
- Improved Profitability: The company reported an adjusted net income of $20.1 million, compared to a loss of $2.4 million in the same quarter last year, with adjusted earnings per share reaching $0.12, significantly exceeding Wall Street expectations and indicating a marked improvement in profitability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Fastly anticipates revenue growth of approximately 14% to $710 million by 2026, with operating income projected at $55 million and adjusted earnings per share at $0.26, reflecting strong confidence in future growth, particularly driven by AI technology.
- Positive Market Reaction: Fastly's stock price soared 72% by the end of trading, indicating strong investor recognition of the company's performance and future prospects, further solidifying its position in the rapidly evolving cloud computing and AI markets.
See More
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- Google Search Engine Advantage: Alphabet (GOOGL) holds a dominant position as the primary search engine globally, leveraging AI to drive search growth, with its cloud computing revenue surging 48% last quarter, indicating strong market demand and profitability.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Alphabet plans to invest between $175 billion and $185 billion in capital expenditures in 2023, particularly on its proprietary TPU chips, which provide a cost advantage in the AI sector, thereby enhancing its return on investment.
- Amazon E-commerce Growth: Amazon (AMZN) drives a 24% increase in operating income in its North American e-commerce business, with a 10% rise in sales, showcasing its dominant market position and operational efficiency through a robust logistics network.
- Cloud Computing Market Leadership: Amazon Web Services (AWS) sees a 24% revenue growth last quarter, marking an acceleration in its cloud computing sector, while committing to $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2023 to meet the rising demand for infrastructure and AI services.
See More
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- Spending Plans Overview: Alphabet plans to increase its AI spending from $91 billion in 2025 to $180 billion by 2026, while Microsoft reported $37.5 billion in Q2 2023, up from $34.9 billion in Q1, and Amazon aims to raise its spending to $200 billion in 2026, indicating a strong commitment to AI investments.
- TSMC's Market Outlook: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) expects its capital expenditures to rise from $41 billion in 2025 to $54 billion, with management highlighting increased capacity to meet demand during the Q4 earnings call, leading to positive market sentiment regarding its potential benefits from the AI spending surge.
- Nvidia's Growth Potential: As a leading GPU provider, Nvidia's cloud products are sold out, and it anticipates AI spending could reach $3 to $4 trillion over the next decade, with management asserting that the company is still in the early stages of AI development and will continue to launch more powerful products to maintain its competitive edge.
- Applied Digital's Successful Pivot: Applied Digital has shifted from crypto-mining to AI infrastructure, securing a $5 billion long-term contract over 15 years, and despite currently being unprofitable, it reported a 250% year-over-year sales increase in Q2 2026, indicating strong market demand and positioning for future growth.
See More
AI Drives Exponential Growth in Capital Expenditure
- Surge in Capital Expenditure: Top hyperscalers are expected to increase capital expenditures by 70% this year, with Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft planning a combined spending of over $600 billion, indicating a strong commitment to AI infrastructure investment.
- Mixed Market Reactions: Despite the significant increase in capital spending, Amazon and Microsoft's shares have dropped 12% and 16% respectively, while Alphabet's stock is down less than 1% and Meta's has risen by 1%, reflecting investor concerns about the timing of returns on these investments.
- Infrastructure Investment Opportunities: With spending accelerating, investors are drawn to
See More
