Energy Stocks, Including Occidental, Have Underperformed Amid Rising Oil Prices—Here's Why They're Now Closing the Gap.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 12 2026
0mins
Source: Barron's
- Energy Prices Surge: Energy prices have significantly increased since the onset of the war in Iran.
- Stock Market Disconnect: Despite rising energy prices, there is a noticeable disconnect in the stock movements of oil and gas companies.
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Analyst Views on LNG
Wall Street analysts forecast LNG stock price to fall
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 275.840
Low
258.00
Averages
274.09
High
290.00
Current: 275.840
Low
258.00
Averages
274.09
High
290.00
About LNG
Cheniere Energy, Inc. is the producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the United States. The Company provides clean and secure LNG to integrated energy companies, utilities, and energy trading companies worldwide. It operates two natural gas liquefaction and export facilities at Sabine Pass, Louisiana (Sabine Pass LNG Terminal) and near Corpus Christi, Texas (Corpus Christi LNG Terminal). Sabine Pass LNG Terminal, which has natural gas liquefaction facilities consisting of six operational trains, for a total production capacity of approximately 30 million tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG (the SPL Project). Corpus Christi LNG Terminal near Corpus Christi, Texas, consists of three trains for a total production capacity of approximately 15 mtpa of LNG, three LNG storage tanks and two marine berths. It also owns and operates a 94-mile natural gas supply pipeline that interconnects the Sabine Pass LNG Terminal with several large interstate and intrastate pipelines.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Oil Price Surge Impact: Following President Trump's address on the Iran war, which raised escalation concerns, U.S. crude benchmark WTI surged 9% to $109 a barrel, putting downward pressure on the stock market and negatively affecting investor sentiment.
- Bank of America Upgrades Vale: Bank of America upgraded Vale from hold to buy, suggesting that now is an attractive entry point for investors in the iron ore producer, despite Vale's stock dropping nearly 7% since the Iran conflict began, while iron ore prices have risen about 8%.
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- Refining Sector Benefits: With the 3-2-1 crack spread soaring from $20 at the start of the year to $54, refining companies like Valero Energy and PBF Energy are set to benefit from this trend, provided that demand for transportation products does not suffer due to high prices.
- LNG Supply Gap: The International Energy Agency notes that 34% of global crude oil trade and 20% of LNG trade pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with companies like Woodside Energy and Cheniere Energy positioned to fill the supply gap created by the blockade, particularly for Asian markets.
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See More
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- Supply Chain Impact: Ongoing conflicts in the Persian Gulf are likely to benefit oil, LNG, refining, shipping, and fertilizer companies, particularly U.S. producers and exporters, who are expected to outperform due to supply chain shifts.
- Widening Crack Spread: The 3-2-1 crack spread has surged from under $20 at the start of the year to over $54, which is advantageous for refiners like Valero Energy and PBF Energy, who are likely to continue outperforming the market in a high-price environment.
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- Fertilizer Producers Benefit: Approximately one-third of global seaborne fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S.-focused CF Industries will benefit from its manufacturing facilities in the West and access to domestic gas supplies, enhancing its market competitiveness.
See More
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- Tesla Delivery Decline: Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries of 358,000 vehicles, a 14% drop from the previous quarter and below the expected 370,000, leading to a 4% decline in stock price, indicating market concerns over its growth outlook.
- Nike's Bleak Sales Outlook: Nike anticipates a 20% decline in sales in China for the current quarter, resulting in a more than 2% drop in stock price, highlighting increasing challenges the company faces in the global market that could impact future profitability.
- Globalstar Stock Surge: Globalstar shares rose 9% following reports that Amazon is in talks to acquire the company, although Amazon declined to comment, the optimism surrounding the potential acquisition boosted the stock price significantly.
- Penguin Solutions Earnings Beat: Penguin Solutions reported adjusted earnings of 52 cents per share, exceeding the analyst consensus of 42 cents, with revenue of $343 million surpassing expectations, reflecting strong performance in the computing and memory markets, resulting in a 13% stock price increase.
See More
Market Watch: Oil Price Surge and Stock Market Turmoil
- Oil Price Surge Impact: Following President Trump's address on the Iran war, which raised escalation concerns, U.S. crude benchmark WTI surged 9% to $109 a barrel, putting downward pressure on the stock market and negatively affecting investor sentiment.
- Bank of America Upgrades Vale: Bank of America upgraded Vale from hold to buy, suggesting that now is an attractive entry point for investors in the iron ore producer, despite Vale's stock dropping nearly 7% since the Iran conflict began, while iron ore prices have risen about 8%.
- Wix's Outlook Downgraded: UBS downgraded Wix from buy to hold, with analysts believing its 2026 outlook indicates a slowdown in core business growth from 12% last year to 8% this year, and despite efforts to integrate AI capabilities, the company remains vulnerable to disruption by AI.
- Cheniere Energy Price Target Increased: Citigroup raised Cheniere Energy's price target from $280 to $330 while reiterating its buy rating, as supply disruptions in the Middle East could benefit U.S. LNG exports long-term, with shares up about 17% since the war began.
See More
Iran Establishes Toll Corridor in Strait of Hormuz Amid Shipping Crisis
- Shipping Corridor Control: Iran has established a de facto safe shipping corridor near Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a 90% drop in traffic since February 28, which has caused one of the most severe energy supply shocks globally.
- Toll System Implementation: The Iranian parliament passed a bill to impose fees on vessels transiting the strait, a move that, despite international legal disputes, would institutionalize Tehran's financial control over this critical waterway.
- Selective Passage: All 57 transits recorded since March 13 have taken the Larak detour, indicating strict vetting by the IRGC, which prioritizes vessels from countries with friendly relations, thereby increasing uncertainty in international shipping.
- International Response: While Iran claims the right to charge transit fees, legal experts argue that such unilateral measures may face strong diplomatic and legal challenges under the framework of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
See More
High Net Worth Investors Navigate Market Volatility Amid Geopolitical Tensions
- Cash is King: R360's ultra-high net worth investors are currently holding up to 30% in cash and short-duration debt, reflecting a strategy to maintain liquidity amidst market volatility, emphasizing a long-term investment philosophy.
- Treasury Market Opportunities: With the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.3%, high net worth investors are showing strong interest in intermediate fixed income products, indicating an increasing demand for stable returns in the current interest rate environment.
- Tech Stock Buying Opportunities: Sameer Samana from Wells Fargo notes that the sharp pullback in equities has created opportunities for high net worth investors to buy tech stocks at more reasonable valuations, particularly in the software and hardware sectors, reflecting confidence in future growth potential.
- Energy and Commodity Investments: Charlie Garcia from R360 states that investors have shifted 40% of their new money into energy and commodities, particularly Canadian Natural Resources and major oil companies, signaling a long-term bullish outlook on the energy market despite potential short-term oil price fluctuations.
See More
Investment Protection Strategies Amid Persian Gulf Conflict
- Oil and Gas Stock Opportunities: Amid the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf, companies like Devon Energy and Diamondback Energy, focused on U.S. oil production, present attractive investment options due to rising oil prices, especially considering pre-conflict price levels, making them ideal for risk management.
- Refining Sector Benefits: With the 3-2-1 crack spread soaring from $20 at the start of the year to $54, refining companies like Valero Energy and PBF Energy are set to benefit from this trend, provided that demand for transportation products does not suffer due to high prices.
- LNG Supply Gap: The International Energy Agency notes that 34% of global crude oil trade and 20% of LNG trade pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with companies like Woodside Energy and Cheniere Energy positioned to fill the supply gap created by the blockade, particularly for Asian markets.
- Shipping and Fertilizer Sector Outlook: Flex LNG is poised to benefit from increased LNG shipping demand, while CF Industries, as a U.S.-focused fertilizer producer, will leverage its manufacturing facilities in the West and U.S. gas supply to fill the global fertilizer flow gap.
See More
Oil and Gas Sector Benefits from Supply Chain Disruptions
- Supply Chain Impact: Ongoing conflicts in the Persian Gulf are likely to benefit oil, LNG, refining, shipping, and fertilizer companies, particularly U.S. producers and exporters, who are expected to outperform due to supply chain shifts.
- Widening Crack Spread: The 3-2-1 crack spread has surged from under $20 at the start of the year to over $54, which is advantageous for refiners like Valero Energy and PBF Energy, who are likely to continue outperforming the market in a high-price environment.
- LNG Supply Gap Filling: Companies like Woodside Energy, Cheniere Energy, and Equinor are positioned to fill the LNG supply gap created by the Strait blockade, with Cheniere expanding its export capacity expected to ramp up production imminently.
- Fertilizer Producers Benefit: Approximately one-third of global seaborne fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S.-focused CF Industries will benefit from its manufacturing facilities in the West and access to domestic gas supplies, enhancing its market competitiveness.
See More
