Eli Lilly Poised to Dominate GLP-1 Market, Says JPMorgan
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 25 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Market Leadership: According to JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott, Eli Lilly is expected to outperform expectations in the rapidly growing weight loss drug market due to its 'best-in-class' status, particularly supported by its direct-to-consumer business.
- Competitive Advantage: Data from competitor Novo Nordisk revealed that its next-generation obesity drug failed to match the weight loss results of Lilly's Zepbound, highlighting Lilly's clear advantage in the market and solidifying its leadership position.
- Patient Growth Potential: Schott anticipates that by 2030, approximately 8 million patients will use cash payments to purchase GLP-1 drugs, with Eli Lilly's direct-to-consumer platform LillyDirect poised to benefit, especially among obese patients with inadequate insurance coverage.
- Medicare Coverage Impact: With Medicare coverage for GLP-1 drugs beginning in April, Schott expects around 4.5 million Medicare beneficiaries to use the drug by 2030, further driving Eli Lilly's market share and revenue growth.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy NVO?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on NVO
Wall Street analysts forecast NVO stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 36.480
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
Current: 36.480
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
About NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S is a global healthcare company engaged in diabetes care. The Company is also engaged in the discovery, development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical products. The Company operates through two business segments: diabetes and obesity care, and biopharmaceuticals. The Company's diabetes and obesity care segment covers insulin, GLP-1, other protein-related products, such as glucagon, protein-related delivery systems and needles, and oral anti-diabetic drugs. The Company's biopharmaceuticals segment covers the therapy areas of hemophilia care, growth hormone therapy and hormone replacement therapy. The Company also offers Saxenda product to treat obesity. It offers a range of products, including NovoLog/NovoRapid; NovoLog Mix/NovoMix; Prandin/NovoNorm; NovoSeven; Norditropin, and Vagifem. As of December 31, 2016, it marketed its products in over 180 countries. Its regional structure consists of two commercial units: North America and International Operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Novo Nordisk's Wegovy Recommended for UK Patients
- Expanded Patient Base: The UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) has recommended Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drug Wegovy (semaglutide) for over 1 million patients to prevent strokes and heart attacks, particularly targeting overweight individuals with elevated risks or circulation issues in the legs.
- Clinical Data Support: NICE noted that clinical trial data indicated Wegovy is associated with a reduced risk of heart attack, stroke, or cardiovascular death, with benefits observed even before significant weight loss, highlighting the drug's early efficacy.
- New Indication Coverage: The new recommendations apply to adults who have previously suffered a heart attack or stroke, or have peripheral arterial disease or a body mass index of at least 27, with an estimated 1.2 million people eligible to use semaglutide to mitigate the risk of further heart attacks or strokes.
- Additional Layer of Protection: NICE stated that today's decision provides an extra layer of protection for those who have already experienced heart attacks or strokes, helping to alleviate their fears of recurrence while complementing their existing medications.
See More
Middle East Conflict Disrupts Tourism Industry
- Flight Cancellations Surge: Over 46,000 flights to and from the Middle East have been canceled since the U.S.-Israel conflict began, posing significant operational challenges for airlines and destabilizing the global aviation market.
- High Airfare Affects Travel Plans: Vietnamese traveler Michelle Bui canceled her trip to the Middle East due to soaring ticket prices ranging from $1,500 to $2,000, highlighting the direct impact of the conflict on travel demand.
- Corporate Travel Strategy Adjustments: Voluntary flight cancellations on Europe-Asia routes more than doubled in the first week of March due to safety concerns, indicating that companies are reassessing employee travel safety, which affects the frequency of business trips.
- Regional Travel Gains Popularity: Ferry travel from Singapore to Batam, Indonesia, remains popular despite a $4.66 fuel surcharge, reflecting the appeal of regional travel options as Asian travelers prefer short getaways over long-haul flights.
See More
Novo Nordisk Launches Wegovy Subscription Plan to Regain Market Share
- Market Share Challenge: Novo Nordisk has lost its leading position in the anti-obesity market to Eli Lilly, and despite launching new drugs and label expansions, the market penetration remains insufficient, indicating increasing competitive pressure.
- Obesity Patient Status: Approximately 40.3% of adults in the U.S. are classified as obese, but some studies suggest this figure could be as high as 70%, highlighting a significant potential market; however, only 12% of patients are currently using GLP-1 drugs, revealing a substantial opportunity.
- New Subscription Plan: Novo Nordisk has introduced a subscription plan for Wegovy lasting three, six, or twelve months, allowing patients to access discounts through telehealth platforms, aiming to enhance drug accessibility and expand market reach.
- Future Outlook: While Novo Nordisk's subscription plan may not fully reclaim market share, its pipeline progress and relatively low valuation (11x forward earnings) could present an attractive opportunity for investors, especially as growth is expected to rebound in the coming years.
See More
Novo Nordisk Launches New Subscription Model to Expand Market Reach
- Market Potential: Research indicates that approximately 70% of adults in the U.S. may be obese, yet only 12% are currently using GLP-1 drugs, highlighting significant growth opportunities in the weight loss drug market that Novo Nordisk needs to capitalize on.
- New Subscription Model: Novo Nordisk has introduced a subscription model for Wegovy prescriptions lasting three, six, or twelve months, allowing patients to access lower prescription costs through telehealth platforms, which is expected to significantly enhance drug accessibility and attract more users.
- Competitive Pressure: While Novo Nordisk's subscription model may help expand its market share, the potential for Eli Lilly to adjust its pricing poses uncertainty regarding Novo Nordisk's ability to regain its market leadership position.
- Attractive Valuation: Currently, Novo Nordisk trades at an 11x forward earnings multiple, which is below the healthcare sector average of 17.3x, suggesting that investors purchasing its shares at this level may achieve favorable returns.
See More
Impact of Trump's Tariffs One Year Later
- Widespread Tariff Impact: Trump's tariff policies have placed significant economic pressure on U.S. businesses over the past year, with approximately 80% to 85% of costs absorbed by companies, leading to reduced profits and increased consumer prices, thereby exacerbating overall economic uncertainty.
- Retail Sector Adaptation: While large retailers like Walmart have emerged relatively unscathed, smaller businesses have been severely impacted, with Home Depot aiming to limit purchases from any single country to 10% to reduce dependency and enhance supply chain flexibility.
- Automotive Industry Cost Surge: Automakers such as General Motors and Toyota are facing tariff impacts estimated at up to $9.5 billion, and although the Trump administration has taken steps to alleviate overlapping tariffs, overall costs remain significant, forcing companies to reassess their supply chain strategies.
- Pharmaceutical Sector Stability: Pharmaceutical companies have secured three-year tariff exemptions through pricing agreements with Trump, although new tariffs impose 100% on companies that do not reach agreements, the overall industry is still striving to increase investments in U.S. manufacturing.
See More
Biotech Landscape Update: Regulatory Approvals and Acquisitions
- ARS Pharma Expands Neffy Label: ARS Pharmaceuticals received FDA approval to update the Neffy 1mg label, removing age restrictions for individuals weighing over 33 lbs, which is expected to significantly boost market demand and enhance the company's competitive edge in allergy treatment.
- Novo Nordisk Wins Approval for Awiqli: Novo Nordisk's Awiqli (insulin icodec-abae) received FDA approval as the first once-weekly basal insulin, with a U.S. launch planned for 2H 2026, strengthening the company's leadership in diabetes care.
- Biogen Acquires Apellis: Biogen has agreed to acquire Apellis for $41 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $5.6 billion, which is expected to enhance its market share in immunology and rare diseases while driving future revenue growth.
- Takeda's Zasocitinib Clinical Trial Success: Takeda's Zasocitinib showed that about 70% of patients achieved significant skin clearance in Phase 3 trials, with plans to submit a New Drug Application in 2026, further solidifying its position in the dermatology market.
See More
Novo Nordisk's Wegovy Recommended for UK Patients
- Expanded Patient Base: The UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) has recommended Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drug Wegovy (semaglutide) for over 1 million patients to prevent strokes and heart attacks, particularly targeting overweight individuals with elevated risks or circulation issues in the legs.
- Clinical Data Support: NICE noted that clinical trial data indicated Wegovy is associated with a reduced risk of heart attack, stroke, or cardiovascular death, with benefits observed even before significant weight loss, highlighting the drug's early efficacy.
- New Indication Coverage: The new recommendations apply to adults who have previously suffered a heart attack or stroke, or have peripheral arterial disease or a body mass index of at least 27, with an estimated 1.2 million people eligible to use semaglutide to mitigate the risk of further heart attacks or strokes.
- Additional Layer of Protection: NICE stated that today's decision provides an extra layer of protection for those who have already experienced heart attacks or strokes, helping to alleviate their fears of recurrence while complementing their existing medications.
See More
Middle East Conflict Disrupts Tourism Industry
- Flight Cancellations Surge: Over 46,000 flights to and from the Middle East have been canceled since the U.S.-Israel conflict began, posing significant operational challenges for airlines and destabilizing the global aviation market.
- High Airfare Affects Travel Plans: Vietnamese traveler Michelle Bui canceled her trip to the Middle East due to soaring ticket prices ranging from $1,500 to $2,000, highlighting the direct impact of the conflict on travel demand.
- Corporate Travel Strategy Adjustments: Voluntary flight cancellations on Europe-Asia routes more than doubled in the first week of March due to safety concerns, indicating that companies are reassessing employee travel safety, which affects the frequency of business trips.
- Regional Travel Gains Popularity: Ferry travel from Singapore to Batam, Indonesia, remains popular despite a $4.66 fuel surcharge, reflecting the appeal of regional travel options as Asian travelers prefer short getaways over long-haul flights.
See More
Novo Nordisk Launches Wegovy Subscription Plan to Regain Market Share
- Market Share Challenge: Novo Nordisk has lost its leading position in the anti-obesity market to Eli Lilly, and despite launching new drugs and label expansions, the market penetration remains insufficient, indicating increasing competitive pressure.
- Obesity Patient Status: Approximately 40.3% of adults in the U.S. are classified as obese, but some studies suggest this figure could be as high as 70%, highlighting a significant potential market; however, only 12% of patients are currently using GLP-1 drugs, revealing a substantial opportunity.
- New Subscription Plan: Novo Nordisk has introduced a subscription plan for Wegovy lasting three, six, or twelve months, allowing patients to access discounts through telehealth platforms, aiming to enhance drug accessibility and expand market reach.
- Future Outlook: While Novo Nordisk's subscription plan may not fully reclaim market share, its pipeline progress and relatively low valuation (11x forward earnings) could present an attractive opportunity for investors, especially as growth is expected to rebound in the coming years.
See More
Novo Nordisk Launches New Subscription Model to Expand Market Reach
- Market Potential: Research indicates that approximately 70% of adults in the U.S. may be obese, yet only 12% are currently using GLP-1 drugs, highlighting significant growth opportunities in the weight loss drug market that Novo Nordisk needs to capitalize on.
- New Subscription Model: Novo Nordisk has introduced a subscription model for Wegovy prescriptions lasting three, six, or twelve months, allowing patients to access lower prescription costs through telehealth platforms, which is expected to significantly enhance drug accessibility and attract more users.
- Competitive Pressure: While Novo Nordisk's subscription model may help expand its market share, the potential for Eli Lilly to adjust its pricing poses uncertainty regarding Novo Nordisk's ability to regain its market leadership position.
- Attractive Valuation: Currently, Novo Nordisk trades at an 11x forward earnings multiple, which is below the healthcare sector average of 17.3x, suggesting that investors purchasing its shares at this level may achieve favorable returns.
See More
Impact of Trump's Tariffs One Year Later
- Widespread Tariff Impact: Trump's tariff policies have placed significant economic pressure on U.S. businesses over the past year, with approximately 80% to 85% of costs absorbed by companies, leading to reduced profits and increased consumer prices, thereby exacerbating overall economic uncertainty.
- Retail Sector Adaptation: While large retailers like Walmart have emerged relatively unscathed, smaller businesses have been severely impacted, with Home Depot aiming to limit purchases from any single country to 10% to reduce dependency and enhance supply chain flexibility.
- Automotive Industry Cost Surge: Automakers such as General Motors and Toyota are facing tariff impacts estimated at up to $9.5 billion, and although the Trump administration has taken steps to alleviate overlapping tariffs, overall costs remain significant, forcing companies to reassess their supply chain strategies.
- Pharmaceutical Sector Stability: Pharmaceutical companies have secured three-year tariff exemptions through pricing agreements with Trump, although new tariffs impose 100% on companies that do not reach agreements, the overall industry is still striving to increase investments in U.S. manufacturing.
See More
Biotech Landscape Update: Regulatory Approvals and Acquisitions
- ARS Pharma Expands Neffy Label: ARS Pharmaceuticals received FDA approval to update the Neffy 1mg label, removing age restrictions for individuals weighing over 33 lbs, which is expected to significantly boost market demand and enhance the company's competitive edge in allergy treatment.
- Novo Nordisk Wins Approval for Awiqli: Novo Nordisk's Awiqli (insulin icodec-abae) received FDA approval as the first once-weekly basal insulin, with a U.S. launch planned for 2H 2026, strengthening the company's leadership in diabetes care.
- Biogen Acquires Apellis: Biogen has agreed to acquire Apellis for $41 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $5.6 billion, which is expected to enhance its market share in immunology and rare diseases while driving future revenue growth.
- Takeda's Zasocitinib Clinical Trial Success: Takeda's Zasocitinib showed that about 70% of patients achieved significant skin clearance in Phase 3 trials, with plans to submit a New Drug Application in 2026, further solidifying its position in the dermatology market.
See More
