Daniel Loeb's Third Point Invests in Chipotle and Spotify Amid Market Struggles
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy CMG?
Source: CNBC
- Chipotle Investment: Daniel Loeb's Third Point acquired a position worth over $174 million in Chipotle during Q4 2025, despite the stock's decline of over 5% in the last quarter, with analysts maintaining buy ratings and an estimated 18% upside potential.
- Spotify Position: Loeb invested $58 million in Spotify in the same quarter, which saw a drop of more than 16%, yet finished the year nearly 30% higher, indicating market confidence in its growth, with analysts suggesting a potential increase of over 42%.
- Union Pacific Stake Increase: Loeb also more than doubled his position in Union Pacific, raising its value to over $418 million, making it the fund's fifth-largest holding, reflecting a positive outlook on the railroad sector despite challenging market conditions.
- New and Reduced Positions: In addition to increasing stakes, Loeb established new positions in Constellation Energy and Alibaba while selling off shares in Flutter, Meta, and Talen Energy, demonstrating a strategic adjustment of his portfolio amid market volatility.
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Analyst Views on CMG
Wall Street analysts forecast CMG stock price to rise
25 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 36.300
Low
35.00
Averages
45.95
High
56.00
Current: 36.300
Low
35.00
Averages
45.95
High
56.00
About CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a restaurant company. The Company develops and operates restaurants that serve a menu of burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, made using fresh ingredients. The Company operates approximately 3839 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Kuwait, and United Arab Emirates. It owns and operates all its restaurants in North America and Europe. The Company is focused in serving sourced, classically cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. Its menu includes Burrito, Burrito Bowl, Lifestyle Bowl, Quesadilla, Salad, Tacos, Kid’s Meal, Chips and Sides, and Build your Own (digital only). It also includes Raymonte’s Chicken Bowl, The Mr. Fantasy Burrito, Carne Asada, Build-Your-Own Chipotle, catering and group order. Its subsidiaries include Chipotle Mexican Grill Canada Corp., Chipotle Mexican Grill France SAS, among others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Chipotle Faces Consumer Weakness Challenges
- Consumer Confidence Decline: In 2025, U.S. consumer confidence hit a 12-year low, leading to a decline in Chipotle's traffic for four consecutive quarters, indicating that lower-income households are struggling and impacting the company's performance.
- Sales Decline: Chipotle's same-store sales fell by 1.7% in 2025, with expectations to remain flat in 2026, contributing to a 39% drop in stock price last year and a 46% decline from its June 2024 all-time high, raising concerns about future growth.
- Menu Innovation Strategy: To tackle market challenges, Chipotle plans to introduce four limited-time menu items in 2026, aiming to attract customers through innovation, although the effectiveness of this strategy remains to be seen, reflecting the company's proactive approach to improving performance.
- Expansion Plans Unchanged: Despite facing difficulties, Chipotle intends to open 350 to 370 new locations in 2026, with the CEO confident in reaching 7,000 stores in North America in the long run, demonstrating the company's commitment to long-term growth and strategic execution.
See More
Ackman's Major Investment in Meta Platforms
- Significant Investment: Ackman's Pershing Square has invested 10% of its capital in Meta Platforms, reflecting his strong confidence in Meta's growth potential in artificial intelligence, despite the stock trading at over 21 times forward earnings, which he believes undervalues its long-term prospects.
- Capital Expenditure Strategy: Meta is projected to increase its capital expenditures to $135 billion by 2026, primarily for superintelligence development, and Ackman is unconcerned, asserting that Meta's financial health can support these investments while its core advertising business remains a cash cow.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following Ackman's investment announcement, Meta's stock jumped 11% in 2025, and despite volatility in 2026, the company still expects solid year-over-year operating income growth, indicating increasing market confidence in its AI investments.
- Analyst Support: A survey by S&P Global found that 62 out of 67 Wall Street analysts rated Meta as a
See More
Daniel Loeb's Third Point Invests in Chipotle and Spotify Amid Market Struggles
- Chipotle Investment: Daniel Loeb's Third Point acquired a position worth over $174 million in Chipotle during Q4 2025, despite the stock's decline of over 5% in the last quarter, with analysts maintaining buy ratings and an estimated 18% upside potential.
- Spotify Position: Loeb invested $58 million in Spotify in the same quarter, which saw a drop of more than 16%, yet finished the year nearly 30% higher, indicating market confidence in its growth, with analysts suggesting a potential increase of over 42%.
- Union Pacific Stake Increase: Loeb also more than doubled his position in Union Pacific, raising its value to over $418 million, making it the fund's fifth-largest holding, reflecting a positive outlook on the railroad sector despite challenging market conditions.
- New and Reduced Positions: In addition to increasing stakes, Loeb established new positions in Constellation Energy and Alibaba while selling off shares in Flutter, Meta, and Talen Energy, demonstrating a strategic adjustment of his portfolio amid market volatility.
See More
Dan Loeb's Third Point Investment Moves in Q4
- New Portfolio Investments: Third Point acquired 4.73 million shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, 825,000 shares of Alibaba, and 100,000 shares of Spotify in Q4, indicating a strong interest in the food and tech sectors, which may enhance the diversity and potential returns of its investment portfolio.
- Increased Stake in Rocket Companies: The hedge fund raised its stake in Rocket Companies from 4 million to 9.52 million shares, reflecting increased confidence in the real estate services market, which is expected to boost its market share and profitability in this sector.
- Reduction Strategy: Third Point reduced its stake in PG&E from 50.1 million shares to 34.3 million shares, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's prospects, which may impact its future earnings performance.
- Other Investment Moves: The fund also increased its holdings in Union Pacific and Nvidia, from 880,000 to 1.81 million shares and from 2.85 million to 2.95 million shares respectively, demonstrating ongoing optimism in the transportation and tech sectors, which could lead to long-term capital appreciation.
See More
Pershing Square Increases Stake in Meta Platforms
- New Investment Dynamics: In Q4, Pershing Square Capital established a new position of 2,673,569 shares in Meta Platforms, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential, particularly in AI applications.
- Position Changes: The fund also increased its stake in Amazon by 65% while reducing exposure to Alphabet, indicating a strategic reassessment of tech stocks and a shift in investment focus.
- Positive Market Outlook: Pershing Square's investment presentation highlighted that Meta's stock is undervalued, emphasizing its leadership in digital advertising and AI integration as key drivers for long-term growth, attracting more investor interest.
- Growing User Base: With 3.5 billion daily active users, Meta's strong user base and experienced leadership team provide robust support for its future market performance, further boosting investor confidence.
See More
Ackman Boosts Amazon Stake by $865 Million
- Amazon Stake Increase: Ackman's Pershing Square expanded its Amazon stake by over $865 million in Q4 2025, a 65% increase, bringing the total value above $2.2 billion, reflecting confidence in Amazon's growth potential.
- Stock Price Volatility: Despite a 5% rise in Amazon's stock in Q4 2025, it has since fallen over 12% in Q1 2026, indicating market concerns about its future performance, resulting in a market cap loss exceeding $450 billion.
- Analyst Ratings Optimistic: The majority of analysts polled by LSEG maintain buy ratings on Amazon, with an average price target suggesting a potential rebound of over 38% in the next year, providing investors with a promising outlook.
- Portfolio Adjustments: In addition to increasing his Amazon stake, Ackman announced a stake in Meta valued at over $1.7 billion, while cutting his Alphabet holding by more than 38% and completely exiting his investment in Chipotle, demonstrating flexibility in his investment strategy.
See More
Chipotle Faces Consumer Weakness Challenges
- Consumer Confidence Decline: In 2025, U.S. consumer confidence hit a 12-year low, leading to a decline in Chipotle's traffic for four consecutive quarters, indicating that lower-income households are struggling and impacting the company's performance.
- Sales Decline: Chipotle's same-store sales fell by 1.7% in 2025, with expectations to remain flat in 2026, contributing to a 39% drop in stock price last year and a 46% decline from its June 2024 all-time high, raising concerns about future growth.
- Menu Innovation Strategy: To tackle market challenges, Chipotle plans to introduce four limited-time menu items in 2026, aiming to attract customers through innovation, although the effectiveness of this strategy remains to be seen, reflecting the company's proactive approach to improving performance.
- Expansion Plans Unchanged: Despite facing difficulties, Chipotle intends to open 350 to 370 new locations in 2026, with the CEO confident in reaching 7,000 stores in North America in the long run, demonstrating the company's commitment to long-term growth and strategic execution.
See More
Ackman's Major Investment in Meta Platforms
- Significant Investment: Ackman's Pershing Square has invested 10% of its capital in Meta Platforms, reflecting his strong confidence in Meta's growth potential in artificial intelligence, despite the stock trading at over 21 times forward earnings, which he believes undervalues its long-term prospects.
- Capital Expenditure Strategy: Meta is projected to increase its capital expenditures to $135 billion by 2026, primarily for superintelligence development, and Ackman is unconcerned, asserting that Meta's financial health can support these investments while its core advertising business remains a cash cow.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following Ackman's investment announcement, Meta's stock jumped 11% in 2025, and despite volatility in 2026, the company still expects solid year-over-year operating income growth, indicating increasing market confidence in its AI investments.
- Analyst Support: A survey by S&P Global found that 62 out of 67 Wall Street analysts rated Meta as a
See More
Daniel Loeb's Third Point Invests in Chipotle and Spotify Amid Market Struggles
- Chipotle Investment: Daniel Loeb's Third Point acquired a position worth over $174 million in Chipotle during Q4 2025, despite the stock's decline of over 5% in the last quarter, with analysts maintaining buy ratings and an estimated 18% upside potential.
- Spotify Position: Loeb invested $58 million in Spotify in the same quarter, which saw a drop of more than 16%, yet finished the year nearly 30% higher, indicating market confidence in its growth, with analysts suggesting a potential increase of over 42%.
- Union Pacific Stake Increase: Loeb also more than doubled his position in Union Pacific, raising its value to over $418 million, making it the fund's fifth-largest holding, reflecting a positive outlook on the railroad sector despite challenging market conditions.
- New and Reduced Positions: In addition to increasing stakes, Loeb established new positions in Constellation Energy and Alibaba while selling off shares in Flutter, Meta, and Talen Energy, demonstrating a strategic adjustment of his portfolio amid market volatility.
See More
Dan Loeb's Third Point Investment Moves in Q4
- New Portfolio Investments: Third Point acquired 4.73 million shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, 825,000 shares of Alibaba, and 100,000 shares of Spotify in Q4, indicating a strong interest in the food and tech sectors, which may enhance the diversity and potential returns of its investment portfolio.
- Increased Stake in Rocket Companies: The hedge fund raised its stake in Rocket Companies from 4 million to 9.52 million shares, reflecting increased confidence in the real estate services market, which is expected to boost its market share and profitability in this sector.
- Reduction Strategy: Third Point reduced its stake in PG&E from 50.1 million shares to 34.3 million shares, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's prospects, which may impact its future earnings performance.
- Other Investment Moves: The fund also increased its holdings in Union Pacific and Nvidia, from 880,000 to 1.81 million shares and from 2.85 million to 2.95 million shares respectively, demonstrating ongoing optimism in the transportation and tech sectors, which could lead to long-term capital appreciation.
See More
Pershing Square Increases Stake in Meta Platforms
- New Investment Dynamics: In Q4, Pershing Square Capital established a new position of 2,673,569 shares in Meta Platforms, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential, particularly in AI applications.
- Position Changes: The fund also increased its stake in Amazon by 65% while reducing exposure to Alphabet, indicating a strategic reassessment of tech stocks and a shift in investment focus.
- Positive Market Outlook: Pershing Square's investment presentation highlighted that Meta's stock is undervalued, emphasizing its leadership in digital advertising and AI integration as key drivers for long-term growth, attracting more investor interest.
- Growing User Base: With 3.5 billion daily active users, Meta's strong user base and experienced leadership team provide robust support for its future market performance, further boosting investor confidence.
See More
Ackman Boosts Amazon Stake by $865 Million
- Amazon Stake Increase: Ackman's Pershing Square expanded its Amazon stake by over $865 million in Q4 2025, a 65% increase, bringing the total value above $2.2 billion, reflecting confidence in Amazon's growth potential.
- Stock Price Volatility: Despite a 5% rise in Amazon's stock in Q4 2025, it has since fallen over 12% in Q1 2026, indicating market concerns about its future performance, resulting in a market cap loss exceeding $450 billion.
- Analyst Ratings Optimistic: The majority of analysts polled by LSEG maintain buy ratings on Amazon, with an average price target suggesting a potential rebound of over 38% in the next year, providing investors with a promising outlook.
- Portfolio Adjustments: In addition to increasing his Amazon stake, Ackman announced a stake in Meta valued at over $1.7 billion, while cutting his Alphabet holding by more than 38% and completely exiting his investment in Chipotle, demonstrating flexibility in his investment strategy.
See More
