Critical Minerals Supply Chain Realignment Accelerates
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 17 2026
0mins
Should l Buy APD?
Source: Globenewswire
- Policy-Driven Mineral Shortage: The IEA projects a 30% copper supply shortfall by 2035, with non-China rare earth supplies covering less than 40% of demand, prompting Western governments to implement price floors and structured offtake frameworks to attract investment, indicating strong support for non-China production.
- EagleOne Acquisition Project: EagleOne Metals announced the acquisition of the Poison Springs uranium/rare earth project in Utah for $50,000, covering 206.6 acres, with historical drilling indicating mineralization potential for uranium, copper, and silver, further solidifying its position in the policy-driven mineral market.
- Aclara Technological Advancement: Aclara Resources has completed key technological developments for its rare earth metals and alloys project through its joint venture with CAP S.A., with a demonstration plant expected to begin operations in the second half of 2026, advancing its vertical integration strategy in the rare earth supply chain.
- enCore Energy Performance: enCore Energy reported year-end uranium extraction of 699,807 pounds in 2025, a 242% increase year-over-year, delivering at $65.89 per pound, showcasing significant operational efficiency improvements that are expected to enhance its market competitiveness.
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Analyst Views on APD
Wall Street analysts forecast APD stock price to fall
15 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
9 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 295.410
Low
255.00
Averages
290.13
High
345.00
Current: 295.410
Low
255.00
Averages
290.13
High
345.00
About APD
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. is an industrial gases company. The Company is focused on serving energy, environmental, and emerging markets. Its base business provides essential industrial gases, related equipment and applications expertise to customers in dozens of industries, including refining, chemicals, metals, electronics, manufacturing, and food. The Company also develops, engineers, builds, owns and operates clean hydrogen projects supporting the transition to low- and zero-carbon energy in the heavy-duty transportation and industrial sectors. In addition, the Company provides turbomachinery, membrane systems and cryogenic containers globally. The Company has operations in approximately 50 countries. Its industries include aerospace, analytical labs & research/science, automotive, beverages, bioenergy, biotechnology, cement and lime, chemicals, electronics, food, glass and frit, hydrogen energy, medical, metals and materials processing, metals production, medical and others.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Helium Supply Crisis: Iranian drone strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City have disrupted global helium supply, with QatarEnergy declaring force majeure within days, affecting about one-third of the world's helium production and causing spot prices to double within weeks, significantly pressuring the semiconductor industry.
- Chip Manufacturing Impact: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which consumes approximately 500,000 cubic feet of helium annually, has begun monitoring its inventory, while Samsung and SK Hynix have entered a six-month inventory window expected to close in June or July, highlighting the direct impact of helium shortages on advanced chip manufacturing.
- Market Reaction: U.S. industrial gas distributor Airgas declared force majeure on helium shipments in April, indicating supply chain vulnerabilities, and Moody's Ratings warned that even if tensions ease, Qatar's helium production infrastructure has sustained physical damage, complicating recovery efforts.
- Industry Consolidation: Air Products and Chemicals and Linde PLC control a significant share of global helium supply, granting them pricing power during shortages that semiconductor customers cannot easily negotiate away, underscoring the underestimated importance of the helium supply chain in the AI supercycle.
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- Market Opportunity: Linde's space business is rapidly growing, with expectations that SpaceX's IPO could double its commercial aerospace business to over $1 billion, highlighting its significance in emerging markets.
- Investment Expansion: Linde is investing $100 million in a new plant in Texas to enhance its gas supply capabilities for SpaceX, ensuring timely deliveries and strengthening its competitive position in the space industry.
- Historical Legacy: Founded in 1879, Linde has over 60 years of experience in the space sector, contributing to key missions from the Apollo program to Artemis II, showcasing its deep-rooted involvement in aerospace.
- Future Outlook: With SpaceX planning to significantly increase launch frequencies in the coming years, Linde anticipates benefiting from this trend, further solidifying its market position as an indispensable gas supplier in the space industry.
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- Market Volatility: The war in Iran has led to soaring oil prices, causing short-term volatility in global markets; while major indexes have recently hit all-time highs, economists warn that the market may be underestimating the impact of this oil price shock.
- Helium Price Surge: Spot helium prices have doubled since the onset of the war, and even if it ends this week, it could take years for supplies to normalize, posing potential risks to semiconductor manufacturing, particularly in AI chip production.
- Qatar Supply Constraints: Qatar, which accounts for about a third of global helium supply, has halted production at its Ras Laffan plant due to attacks, leading to an expected 14% drop in annual helium exports, exacerbating the helium shortage issue.
- Semiconductor Manufacturers' Strategies: Major Asian semiconductor manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix have secured contracts with U.S. helium firms to ensure raw material supply; although helium constitutes a small percentage of total chip production costs, rising prices could still impact their production capabilities.
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- Rating Upgrade: BMO Capital has upgraded Air Products (APD) from Market Perform to Outperform, raising the price target from $325 to $360, indicating strong execution in a challenging environment through cost reductions and new business wins.
- Improved Market Conditions: The analyst highlighted several tailwinds for APD, including new pricing in core products, improved helium pricing, and better sales volumes, all of which are expected to enhance the company's profitability and competitive position.
- Investment Return Potential: BMO's analyst emphasized a more rigorous investment approach in the Darrow project, suggesting that if pursued, the new capital is likely to yield solid returns, while a partnership with Yara for green ammonia mitigates risks associated with independent operations.
- Earnings Growth Opportunities: With the current tight helium market and inflationary pressures, APD is poised to improve its earnings through better pricing and higher refinery run rates, further solidifying its market position.
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- Exhibition Showcase: Air Products will present its industrial gas solutions for all phases of iron and steel production at AISTech2026 from May 4-7 in Pittsburgh, inviting industry professionals to engage and enhancing brand visibility.
- Donation Initiative: The Air Products Foundation has pledged to donate $100 for each registered attendee visiting its booth, up to a total of $15,000, aimed at supporting the AIST Foundation in promoting the steel industry as a viable career choice for young engineers, thereby enhancing corporate social responsibility.
- Technical Presentation: Dr. Anup Sane, Air Products' Commercial Technology Manager, will deliver a presentation titled “Enhancing the Value-in-Use of Direct Reduced Iron in Electric Steelmaking” at 3 p.m. on May 4, introducing two combustion-based solutions for sustainable steelmaking, showcasing the company's technological leadership in the industry.
- Diverse Product Offering: Air Products provides a wide range of gases including argon, carbon dioxide, helium, hydrogen, nitrogen, and oxygen, tailored to meet various operational needs, and is committed to helping customers reduce costs and improve productivity while minimizing environmental impact through innovative gas technologies.
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- Significant Revenue Growth: Linde's Q1 revenue increased over 8% year-over-year to $8.78 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $8.58 billion, demonstrating the company's robust performance in the industrial gas market and reinforcing its market leadership.
- Improved Profitability: Adjusted earnings per share rose more than 9% year-over-year to $4.33, exceeding the expected $4.26, reflecting strong sales growth across all markets and boosting investor confidence.
- Diversified Market Advantage: Linde's extensive presence in various industries, including healthcare and electronics, led to sales growth in all sectors, with a notable 10% increase in the electronics sector, highlighting strong demand in the rapidly evolving tech field.
- Optimistic Guidance Outlook: Linde raised its fiscal 2026 EPS guidance to between $17.60 and $17.90, representing a 7% to 9% annual growth rate, although below market expectations, the management's conservative approach is viewed positively in the current economic climate.
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