Copper Prices Surge Over 33% Year-to-Date, Achieving Largest Increase in 16 Years; Analysts Forecast Structural Shortage Beginning Next Year | Intellectia.AI
Copper Prices Surge Over 33% Year-to-Date, Achieving Largest Increase in 16 Years; Analysts Forecast Structural Shortage Beginning Next Year
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Commodity Prices Overview: Commodity prices, particularly copper, have surged, with copper reaching record highs due to US tariffs, supply disruptions, and global shortages, gaining over 33% YTD, the highest increase since 2009.
Silver Price Movement: Silver prices hit a record high before declining slightly, reflecting the overall strength in commodity markets.
Stock Performance: Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) saw a significant rise, touching a record high of HK$41.98, while other mining stocks like MMG and CHINFMINING also experienced gains, despite some stocks like ZIJIN MINING and CMOC facing declines.
Analyst Upgrades: Macquarie has raised the target price for ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK) due to improved earnings forecasts linked to rising gold prices.
Wall Street analysts forecast 00358 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00358 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 00358 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00358 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 46.980
Low
Averages
High
Current: 46.980
Low
Averages
High
Citi
Buy
maintain
Al Analysis
2025-12-16
Reason
Citi
Price Target
Al Analysis
2025-12-16
maintain
Buy
Reason
The analyst rating for JIANGXI COPPER is maintained as a "Buy" due to the expectation of overall gross profit growth driven by increased prices for copper, gold, and sulfuric acid, despite anticipated declines in gross profit from its copper smelting business and long-term operational pressures. Additionally, Citi has raised its target price, indicating a positive outlook on the stock's valuation.
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Overweight
maintain
2025-12-04
Reason
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Price Target
2025-12-04
maintain
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan's bullish outlook on copper prices and related stocks is driven by several factors: strong demand, severe supply disruptions, and reduced smelting capacity in China. The firm maintains an Overweight rating on ZIJIN MINING and CMOC due to their expected earnings growth and diversified assets in copper, gold, and cobalt. ZIJIN MINING is highlighted as a top pick because of its reasonable valuation. Conversely, an Underweight rating is assigned to JIANGXI COPPER due to persistently weak treatment and refining charges, along with slowed profit growth.
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Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
initiated
2025-11-26
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
2025-11-26
initiated
Reason
The analyst rating from Morgan Stanley is based on the expectation that the strict limitations on new copper smelting capacity and the planned shutdown of approximately 2 million tons of illegally constructed copper smelting capacity in China will positively impact copper prices. This, in turn, is anticipated to benefit major copper producers, leading to an expected rise in the share prices of JIANGXI COPPER and CMOC within the next 15 days, with a probability of 70-80% for this scenario. Consequently, Morgan Stanley rated both stocks as Overweight, with target prices set at $37.3 for JIANGXI COPPER and $18.6 for CMOC.
UBS
UBS
upgrade
$50
2025-10-15
Reason
UBS
UBS
Price Target
$50
2025-10-15
upgrade
Reason
The analyst rating from UBS is based on the adjustment of copper price forecasts due to tightening industry fundamentals. This tightening is attributed to several factors: reduced production guidance from Indonesia's Grasberg mine, accidents at the Kamoa Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile's El Teniente mine, and protests in Peru. These issues are expected to exacerbate short-term supply risks for copper mines, leading to an increase in earnings estimates for companies like ZIJIN MINING, CMOC, and JIANGXI COPPER, all of which were rated as "Buy."
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
