Copper Futures Drop to $13,033, Goldman Sachs Predicts $11,000 by Year-End 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 15 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Price Decline: Copper futures fell to $13,033 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, down 2% from all-time highs, reflecting market concerns over future demand.
- Future Forecast: Goldman Sachs analysts predict copper prices will drop to $11,000 per ton by year-end 2026, primarily due to rising global inventories and underperforming demand, indicating a deterioration in market fundamentals.
- Weak Demand: China's copper demand growth fell short of expectations in Q4 2025, with weakening electric vehicle sales posing further downside risks, prompting manufacturers to consider switching from copper to aluminum.
- Policy Impact: The Trump administration's decision to delay tariffs on critical mineral imports may lead to lower premiums for U.S. copper, although prices are expected to remain around $13,000 in Q1 due to uncertainty surrounding refined copper tariffs.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy BHP?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on BHP
Wall Street analysts forecast BHP stock price to fall
3 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 65.290
Low
49.50
Averages
56.50
High
68.00
Current: 65.290
Low
49.50
Averages
56.50
High
68.00
About BHP
BHP Group Limited is an Australia-based resources company. The Company is a producer of commodities, including iron ore, copper, nickel, potash and metallurgical (steelmaking) coal. It is focused on offering a range of resources, which provides copper for renewable energy; nickel for electric vehicles; potash for sustainable farming, and iron ore and metallurgical coal for the steel needed for global infrastructure and the energy transition. Its segments include Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal. Its Copper segment is engaged in mining of copper, silver, zinc, molybdenum, uranium, and gold. Its Iron Ore segment is engaged in mining of iron ore. Its Coal segment is engaged in mining of metallurgical coal and energy coal. The Company is also focused on operating Olympic Dam, Prominent Hill, and Carrapateena underground copper-gold mines in South Australia. Its operations are situated in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid High Inflation, Mining Stocks Struggle
- Rate Policy Impact: The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the benchmark interest rate steady on March 18, signaling potential rate cuts delayed until 2027, has created a double whammy for metals and mining stocks amid persistent inflation and surging oil prices.
- Metal Price Decline: Traditionally, war boosts demand for precious metals like gold and silver; however, due to the U.S. dollar and bonds being favored as safe-haven assets, metal prices are declining, putting significant pressure on major mining stocks.
- Major Mining Companies Struggle: Shares of Newmont, the world's largest gold miner, fell 13.5% this week and over 25% since the Iran war began; Barrick and Hecla also faced steep declines, with Hecla's stock plunging over 50% from its late-January high.
- Industry Outlook Analysis: The metals and mining sector is grappling with high interest rates, soaring energy costs, and fears of an economic slowdown, creating substantial challenges, although companies like Newmont and Barrick show strong cash flow and asset management capabilities amidst the overall market gloom.
See More
Federal Reserve May Delay Rate Cuts Amid Rising Oil Prices and Inflation
- Metal Stocks Plummet: Amid surging oil prices due to the Iran war, metal prices have significantly dropped, with Newmont's shares falling 13.5% this week and over 25% since the conflict began, reflecting market concerns over metal demand.
- Rising Operational Costs: Brent crude oil prices have surged more than 50% since the Iran war, leading to skyrocketing operational costs for mining companies, resulting in significant stock declines for major players like Barrick and Hecla, with Hecla's stock down over 50% from its January peak.
- Market Environment Challenges: The metals and mining sector is under immense pressure from high interest rates, rising energy costs, and a stronger dollar, prompting companies like Newmont and Barrick to focus on debt reduction and asset restructuring to maintain financial stability.
- Investor Confidence Tested: Despite increased market volatility, companies like BHP demonstrate resilience with strong cash flows and high margins, suggesting that investors should maintain confidence in fundamental demand to navigate short-term market fluctuations.
See More
Oil Stocks Rise, Accenture Surpasses Earnings Expectations
- Oil Stocks Surge: Brent crude futures briefly topped $119 per barrel, leading APA shares to rise by 5%, while SLB and Baker Hughes advanced over 4%, indicating market optimism about rising oil prices potentially boosting profitability for these companies.
- Accenture's Strong Performance: The IT company reported second-quarter earnings of $2.93 per share on revenue of $18.04 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations, which highlights robust demand in digital transformation services and is likely to enhance its market share further.
- Rivian Secures Investment: Uber plans to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian to launch up to 50,000 robotaxis, resulting in a more than 3% increase in Rivian's stock price, and this strategic partnership is expected to accelerate penetration into the electric vehicle market and drive technological innovation.
- Signet Jewelers' Strong Rebound: The jewelry retailer reported adjusted earnings of $6.25 per share for the fourth quarter, surpassing market expectations, with revenue at $2.35 billion, reflecting sustained consumer demand for luxury jewelry, which is expected to further drive the company's stock price upward.
See More
BHP Appoints New CEO Brandon Craig Effective July 1
- New CEO Appointment: BHP announced the appointment of Brandon Craig, currently head of Americas operations, as the new CEO effective July 1, succeeding Mike Henry, who has served for over six years, indicating a strategic leadership shift within the company.
- Rich Leadership Experience: Craig has led BHP's Western Australia iron ore business since 2020 and became President of BHP Americas in March 2022, bringing over 20 years of experience with the company, which is expected to drive continued growth in key business areas.
- Henry's Achievements and Challenges: During Henry's tenure, he reshaped the company by scaling back coal and exiting oil and gas, while acquiring OZ Minerals and Filo Corp. to enhance the copper business; however, he also faced several failed attempts to acquire Anglo American, highlighting the complexities of market competition.
- Market Reaction and Future Outlook: The new CEO's appointment may influence investor confidence, particularly against the backdrop of strategic adjustments made during Henry's tenure, with the market closely watching how Craig addresses future challenges and opportunities.
See More
BHP Submits Escondida New Concentrator Project for Environmental Approval
- Investment Plan: BHP's submission of the Escondida new concentrator project represents an investment of $4.4 billion to $5.9 billion, aimed at replacing the aging Los Colorados plant, thereby ensuring long-term mine operations and investment returns.
- Capacity Enhancement: The new facility is designed to produce 220,000 to 260,000 metric tons of copper annually, which will maintain Escondida's overall processing capacity of 460,000 tons of ore per day, ensuring the company's competitiveness in the global copper market.
- Environmental Approval: The project requires approval from Chile's Environmental Assessment System, and if granted, will initiate a multi-year construction program with first production targeted for 2031-32, reflecting the company's confidence in future copper demand.
- Strategic Implications: By replacing outdated facilities, BHP not only enhances production efficiency but also strengthens its image and market position in sustainability amidst increasingly stringent environmental regulations.
See More
Rio Tinto and BHP Finalize Land Exchange for Copper Mine Development
- Land Exchange Completed: Rio Tinto and BHP's joint venture has finalized a land exchange with the U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management, transferring over 5,400 acres of environmentally and culturally sensitive land, thereby paving the way for the full development of the Resolution Copper project.
- Copper Resource Potential: The exchange grants Resolution over 2,400 acres adjacent to the historic Magma Copper mine, which is estimated to contain approximately 40 billion pounds of copper, significantly enhancing the project's resource base and future profitability.
- Legal Battle Concluded: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled in favor of Resolution Copper and the federal government, denying plaintiffs' requests to halt the land exchange, marking the end of a long-running legal dispute with the San Carlos Apache people.
- Drilling Campaign Initiated: Resolution Copper plans to launch a ~$500 million drilling campaign over the next two years to support enabling works, including surface drilling to gather additional resource information, which is expected to further advance the project and its commercialization.
See More
Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid High Inflation, Mining Stocks Struggle
- Rate Policy Impact: The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the benchmark interest rate steady on March 18, signaling potential rate cuts delayed until 2027, has created a double whammy for metals and mining stocks amid persistent inflation and surging oil prices.
- Metal Price Decline: Traditionally, war boosts demand for precious metals like gold and silver; however, due to the U.S. dollar and bonds being favored as safe-haven assets, metal prices are declining, putting significant pressure on major mining stocks.
- Major Mining Companies Struggle: Shares of Newmont, the world's largest gold miner, fell 13.5% this week and over 25% since the Iran war began; Barrick and Hecla also faced steep declines, with Hecla's stock plunging over 50% from its late-January high.
- Industry Outlook Analysis: The metals and mining sector is grappling with high interest rates, soaring energy costs, and fears of an economic slowdown, creating substantial challenges, although companies like Newmont and Barrick show strong cash flow and asset management capabilities amidst the overall market gloom.
See More
Federal Reserve May Delay Rate Cuts Amid Rising Oil Prices and Inflation
- Metal Stocks Plummet: Amid surging oil prices due to the Iran war, metal prices have significantly dropped, with Newmont's shares falling 13.5% this week and over 25% since the conflict began, reflecting market concerns over metal demand.
- Rising Operational Costs: Brent crude oil prices have surged more than 50% since the Iran war, leading to skyrocketing operational costs for mining companies, resulting in significant stock declines for major players like Barrick and Hecla, with Hecla's stock down over 50% from its January peak.
- Market Environment Challenges: The metals and mining sector is under immense pressure from high interest rates, rising energy costs, and a stronger dollar, prompting companies like Newmont and Barrick to focus on debt reduction and asset restructuring to maintain financial stability.
- Investor Confidence Tested: Despite increased market volatility, companies like BHP demonstrate resilience with strong cash flows and high margins, suggesting that investors should maintain confidence in fundamental demand to navigate short-term market fluctuations.
See More
Oil Stocks Rise, Accenture Surpasses Earnings Expectations
- Oil Stocks Surge: Brent crude futures briefly topped $119 per barrel, leading APA shares to rise by 5%, while SLB and Baker Hughes advanced over 4%, indicating market optimism about rising oil prices potentially boosting profitability for these companies.
- Accenture's Strong Performance: The IT company reported second-quarter earnings of $2.93 per share on revenue of $18.04 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations, which highlights robust demand in digital transformation services and is likely to enhance its market share further.
- Rivian Secures Investment: Uber plans to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian to launch up to 50,000 robotaxis, resulting in a more than 3% increase in Rivian's stock price, and this strategic partnership is expected to accelerate penetration into the electric vehicle market and drive technological innovation.
- Signet Jewelers' Strong Rebound: The jewelry retailer reported adjusted earnings of $6.25 per share for the fourth quarter, surpassing market expectations, with revenue at $2.35 billion, reflecting sustained consumer demand for luxury jewelry, which is expected to further drive the company's stock price upward.
See More
BHP Appoints New CEO Brandon Craig Effective July 1
- New CEO Appointment: BHP announced the appointment of Brandon Craig, currently head of Americas operations, as the new CEO effective July 1, succeeding Mike Henry, who has served for over six years, indicating a strategic leadership shift within the company.
- Rich Leadership Experience: Craig has led BHP's Western Australia iron ore business since 2020 and became President of BHP Americas in March 2022, bringing over 20 years of experience with the company, which is expected to drive continued growth in key business areas.
- Henry's Achievements and Challenges: During Henry's tenure, he reshaped the company by scaling back coal and exiting oil and gas, while acquiring OZ Minerals and Filo Corp. to enhance the copper business; however, he also faced several failed attempts to acquire Anglo American, highlighting the complexities of market competition.
- Market Reaction and Future Outlook: The new CEO's appointment may influence investor confidence, particularly against the backdrop of strategic adjustments made during Henry's tenure, with the market closely watching how Craig addresses future challenges and opportunities.
See More
BHP Submits Escondida New Concentrator Project for Environmental Approval
- Investment Plan: BHP's submission of the Escondida new concentrator project represents an investment of $4.4 billion to $5.9 billion, aimed at replacing the aging Los Colorados plant, thereby ensuring long-term mine operations and investment returns.
- Capacity Enhancement: The new facility is designed to produce 220,000 to 260,000 metric tons of copper annually, which will maintain Escondida's overall processing capacity of 460,000 tons of ore per day, ensuring the company's competitiveness in the global copper market.
- Environmental Approval: The project requires approval from Chile's Environmental Assessment System, and if granted, will initiate a multi-year construction program with first production targeted for 2031-32, reflecting the company's confidence in future copper demand.
- Strategic Implications: By replacing outdated facilities, BHP not only enhances production efficiency but also strengthens its image and market position in sustainability amidst increasingly stringent environmental regulations.
See More
Rio Tinto and BHP Finalize Land Exchange for Copper Mine Development
- Land Exchange Completed: Rio Tinto and BHP's joint venture has finalized a land exchange with the U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management, transferring over 5,400 acres of environmentally and culturally sensitive land, thereby paving the way for the full development of the Resolution Copper project.
- Copper Resource Potential: The exchange grants Resolution over 2,400 acres adjacent to the historic Magma Copper mine, which is estimated to contain approximately 40 billion pounds of copper, significantly enhancing the project's resource base and future profitability.
- Legal Battle Concluded: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled in favor of Resolution Copper and the federal government, denying plaintiffs' requests to halt the land exchange, marking the end of a long-running legal dispute with the San Carlos Apache people.
- Drilling Campaign Initiated: Resolution Copper plans to launch a ~$500 million drilling campaign over the next two years to support enabling works, including surface drilling to gather additional resource information, which is expected to further advance the project and its commercialization.
See More
