Copper Futures Drop to $13,033, Goldman Sachs Predicts $11,000 by Year-End 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 15 2026
0mins
Should l Buy BHP?
Source: seekingalpha
- Price Decline: Copper futures fell to $13,033 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, down 2% from all-time highs, reflecting market concerns over future demand.
- Future Forecast: Goldman Sachs analysts predict copper prices will drop to $11,000 per ton by year-end 2026, primarily due to rising global inventories and underperforming demand, indicating a deterioration in market fundamentals.
- Weak Demand: China's copper demand growth fell short of expectations in Q4 2025, with weakening electric vehicle sales posing further downside risks, prompting manufacturers to consider switching from copper to aluminum.
- Policy Impact: The Trump administration's decision to delay tariffs on critical mineral imports may lead to lower premiums for U.S. copper, although prices are expected to remain around $13,000 in Q1 due to uncertainty surrounding refined copper tariffs.
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Analyst Views on BHP
Wall Street analysts forecast BHP stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BHP is 54.88 USD with a low forecast of 48.00 USD and a high forecast of 68.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 72.220
Low
48.00
Averages
54.88
High
68.00
Current: 72.220
Low
48.00
Averages
54.88
High
68.00
About BHP
BHP Group Limited is an Australia-based resources company. The Company is a producer of commodities, including iron ore, copper, nickel, potash and metallurgical (steelmaking) coal. It is focused on offering a range of resources, which provides copper for renewable energy; nickel for electric vehicles; potash for sustainable farming, and iron ore and metallurgical coal for the steel needed for global infrastructure and the energy transition. Its segments include Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal. Its Copper segment is engaged in mining of copper, silver, zinc, molybdenum, uranium, and gold. Its Iron Ore segment is engaged in mining of iron ore. Its Coal segment is engaged in mining of metallurgical coal and energy coal. The Company is also focused on operating Olympic Dam, Prominent Hill, and Carrapateena underground copper-gold mines in South Australia. Its operations are situated in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Program Expansion: BHP has selected 10 early-stage exploration and technology companies for the 2026 Xplor program, marking the largest cohort since its inception, reflecting the company's commitment to innovative exploration methods aimed at enhancing mineral discovery efficiency.
- Interdisciplinary Collaboration: The selected companies include junior exploration firms, geoscience organizations, and technology teams, emphasizing the intersection of geological insights, data, and emerging technologies, which enhances the understanding of mineral systems and increases exploration success rates.
- Innovative Technology Application: Companies like RadiXplore and Mineural are utilizing artificial intelligence and modern data analytics to improve the efficiency of mineral target identification, indicating BHP's proactive adoption of new technologies to address complex geological environments during exploration.
- Global Perspective: Participants in this Xplor program hail from various countries, including Canada, Australia, and South Africa, showcasing BHP's strategic pursuit of collaboration and innovation on a global scale, aiming to drive sustainable mineral resource development through diverse technologies and expertise.
See More
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- Annual Contract Negotiations: The company is currently negotiating annual contract terms with China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), which could lead to approximately $1 billion in annual losses from incremental discounts on its major iron ore fines products at spot prices.
- Lump Product Discounts: The 80% drop in premiums for Newman lump products adds another $1 billion in revenue pressure, reflecting intensified market competition and the challenges in maintaining pricing power.
- Market Strategy Adjustments: BHP stated it is optimizing product placement distribution channels and taking actions to preserve operational flexibility, which has impacted realized prices; however, the company remains committed to expanding sales in other markets, demonstrating resilience in facing challenges.
See More
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