Should You Buy BHP Group Ltd (BHP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
70.490
1 Day change
4.01%
52 Week Range
70.540
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/23
BHP Group Ltd is not a strong buy for a beginner investor with a long-term focus at this moment. While the stock has shown some positive technical indicators and recent upgrades by analysts, the cautious sentiment from Congress trading, hedge fund selling, and mixed news catalysts suggest a wait-and-see approach is more prudent.
Technical Analysis
The technical indicators show a bullish trend with moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and a positive MACD histogram. RSI is neutral at 57.068, and the stock is trading above its pivot level of 64.158, with resistance at 66.209 and support at 62.107. However, the pre-market price increase of 1.43% is modest, and no strong momentum signals are present.
Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
The high Option Volume Put-Call Ratio of 3.38 suggests bearish sentiment in the options market, with significantly more put volume than call volume.
Moving Average Consensus
Sell
5
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
2026/01/23 04:20:04
Record iron ore production of 263 Mt in FY2025, marking a 1% year-over-year increase.
Raised FY2026 copper production guidance to 1.9-2.0 million tons despite a 4% year-over-year decline in Q2 copper production.
Recent analyst upgrades, including Argus upgrading to Buy with a $68 price target.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
2026/01/23 04:20:04
Hedge funds are selling, with a significant increase in selling activity (36947.37% over the last quarter).
Congress trading data shows more selling transactions than purchases, indicating cautious sentiment.
Increased cost estimates for the Jansen Phase 1 copper project to $8.4 billion due to construction overruns.
Denial of a permit by a high court, which could impact future projects.
Financial Performance
No detailed financial data available for analysis. However, the company reported record-high iron ore production and increased investment in its Jansen project, indicating a focus on growth despite rising costs.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Analyst sentiment is mixed. Recent upgrades include Argus upgrading to Buy with a $68 price target, citing firming commodity prices and a reversal of bearish technical patterns. However, JPMorgan maintains a Neutral rating, and Berenberg has a Sell rating with a lower price target.
Wall Street analysts forecast BHP stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BHP is 54.88 USD with a low forecast of 48 USD and a high forecast of 68 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BHP stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BHP is 54.88 USD with a low forecast of 48 USD and a high forecast of 68 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 67.770
Low
48
Averages
54.88
High
68
Current: 67.770
Low
48
Averages
54.88
High
68
JPMorgan
Dominic O'Kane
Neutral
maintain
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
Reason
JPMorgan
Dominic O'Kane
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
maintain
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Dominic O'Kane raised the firm's price target on BHP Group to 2,400 GBp from 2,300 GBp and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
Argus
Hold
to
Buy
upgrade
$68
2025-12-30
Reason
Argus
Price Target
$68
2025-12-30
upgrade
Hold
to
Buy
Reason
Argus upgraded BHP Group to Buy from Hold with a $68 price target.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for BHP
