Comparative Analysis of Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 05 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ASTS?
Source: Fool
- Market Valuation Discrepancy: Rocket Lab has a market capitalization of approximately $40 billion with trailing revenue of nearly $601.8 million, while AST SpaceMobile trades at $24 billion with only $18.5 million in revenue, indicating Rocket Lab's valuation is relatively high and AST's extremely expensive.
- Business Maturity Comparison: Rocket Lab boasts a proven rocket system and a backlog exceeding $1.8 billion, recently securing an $816 million defense contract, showcasing its solid market position; in contrast, AST SpaceMobile is in an earlier stage, planning to launch more satellites by year-end but facing significant uncertainty.
- Revenue Potential Analysis: Should AST successfully build its satellite constellation and activate commercial services with partners like AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone, the recurring revenue potential could reach billions, although forecasts remain highly uncertain; conversely, Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket is expected to debut in late 2026, significantly increasing per-launch revenue.
- Investment Risk Assessment: While Rocket Lab presents a more reliable historical performance and clearer opportunities, both companies' high valuations and potential execution risks warrant careful consideration from investors to avoid possible financial losses.
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Analyst Views on ASTS
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTS stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 86.830
Low
43.00
Averages
91.68
High
137.00
Current: 86.830
Low
43.00
Averages
91.68
High
137.00
About ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is engaged in building a global cellular broadband network in space to operate directly with standard, unmodified mobile devices based on its intellectual property (IP) and patent portfolio and designed for both commercial and government applications. The Company is engaged in designing and developing the constellation of BlueBird (BB) satellites and has planned a space-based Cellular Broadband network distributed through a constellation of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Its SpaceMobile Service is being designed to provide high-speed cellular broadband services to end-users who are out of terrestrial cellular coverage using existing mobile devices. The Company intends to continue testing capabilities of the BW3 test satellite, including further testing with cellular service providers and the government. The Company has operations in India, Scotland, Spain, and Israel.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
ASTS Secures Approval for Satellite Network in Brazil
- Regulatory Breakthrough: Brazil's telecom authority ANATEL approved ASTS's application to operate a 248-satellite non-geostationary network, with a license valid until September 2039, marking a significant advancement in the Latin American market that is expected to drive future revenue growth.
- Short Interest Pressure: As of May 18, short interest in ASTS rose to 16.6% of the float, up sharply from 13.6% at the beginning of the year, indicating market concerns about the company's future performance, which could impact stock price volatility.
- FCC Expansion Approval: The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) approved ASTS to launch 223 low-Earth orbit satellites last month, aimed at expanding its space-based cellular broadband network and enhancing direct-to-device connectivity, further solidifying its market position.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Despite the increase in short interest, retail sentiment for ASTS on Stocktwits shifted from 'extremely bullish' to 'bullish', reflecting investor optimism about the potential of the Brazilian market, with expectations for the stock to surpass $90.
See More
AST SpaceMobile Reaffirms Satellite Deployment Goal
- Satellite Deployment Progress: CEO Abel Avellan reiterated AST SpaceMobile's goal to deploy 45 satellites this year despite launch delays, with expectations of monthly launches, which will significantly enhance the company's competitiveness in the satellite broadband market.
- BlueBird Convoy Launch: AST announced that the 'BlueBird convoy' is officially underway, with the first two satellites en route to the launch pad in Florida, showcasing the company's efficiency in satellite assembly and transportation, which is expected to accelerate the construction of its satellite network.
- Broadband Technology Advantage: Avellan emphasized that AST is the only system capable of delivering hundreds of megabits per second directly to devices, with recent tests showing speeds close to 100 Mbps, enhancing the company's competitive edge against rivals like Starlink.
- Partnership Expansion: AST supports a proposed satellite connectivity joint venture with AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon to expand wireless coverage across the U.S., a strategy that will help accelerate the mainstream integration of satellite technology and further strengthen AST's market position.
See More
Rocket Lab vs AST SpaceMobile Q1 Earnings Comparison
- Rocket Lab's Strong Performance: Rocket Lab reported a 63.5% year-over-year revenue increase to $200 million in Q1, achieving a gross margin of 38.2%, although operating costs rose 40.4%, resulting in a loss of $0.07 per share, which is an improvement from last year's $0.12 loss, indicating competitive strength in the rapidly growing space market.
- Optimistic Future Guidance: Rocket Lab expects Q2 revenue to grow by 20% sequentially, with gross margins projected to decline to 33%-35%; analysts predict continued losses in the upcoming quarters, but a narrowing to $0.27 per share by 2026, reflecting a gradual path toward profitability.
- AST SpaceMobile's Disappointing Results: AST SpaceMobile reported a Q1 loss of $0.66 per share, significantly worse than the expected $0.21 loss, with revenue at only $14.7 million, missing the $37.5 million target, despite a 20-fold year-over-year growth, as operating costs surged 158%, increasing cash flow pressures.
- Cash Burn Concerns: AST SpaceMobile's cash burn reached $327.4 million in Q1, with an annual forecast of $1.8 billion; if this rate continues, it risks depleting much of its $3.5 billion cash reserves by year-end, posing significant financial challenges ahead.
See More
Trump Announces China to Buy U.S. Crude Oil
- U.S.-China Trade Agreement: Trump announced that China agreed to purchase U.S. crude oil, which not only helps ease trade tensions but also potentially boosts U.S. energy exports, enhancing domestic economic growth prospects.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following the trade deal announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reclaimed the 50,000 mark for the first time, indicating a restoration of market confidence and likely encouraging further investments in U.S. equities.
- Strong Stock Market Performance: Despite early declines in stock futures on Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track for their seventh consecutive week of gains, demonstrating market resilience and investor optimism.
- Industry Dynamics: Cerebras had a stellar debut on Nasdaq, attracting significant investor attention, reflecting strong interest in the semiconductor sector, particularly against the backdrop of surging AI infrastructure investments.
See More
Trump Increases Holdings in ASTS and RKLB Stocks
- Trump's Trading Activity: Trump purchased between $1,001 and $15,000 worth of ASTS shares on March 17 and $15,001 to $50,000 in RKLB stock on January 21, indicating confidence in both space firms and potentially attracting more investor interest.
- ASTS Performance Pressure: AST SpaceMobile reported a quarterly loss wider than Wall Street estimates in its latest earnings report, and while maintaining its full-year revenue outlook, concerns over manufacturing and launch execution risks may hinder its goal of deploying 45 satellites by year-end.
- RKLB Market Performance: Rocket Lab has emerged as one of Wall Street's biggest
See More
Major U.S. Telecoms Form Joint Venture, Boost AST SpaceMobile Stock
- Stock Surge: AST SpaceMobile's stock rose over 10% following the announcement of a joint venture by AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, reflecting strong market confidence in the company's growth potential.
- Strategic Importance of Joint Venture: The newly formed entity aims to expand coverage into 'dead zones' using satellite technology that AST SpaceMobile specializes in, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's market competitiveness and service range.
- Technological Edge: AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird satellites are equipped with the largest commercial antenna arrays ever deployed, achieving peak mobile data speeds of nearly 100 megabits per second, further solidifying its leadership in satellite communications.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Although specific details of the joint venture remain undisclosed, this development is undoubtedly poised to positively impact AST SpaceMobile's business, significantly increasing the attractiveness of its stock in the market.
See More
ASTS Secures Approval for Satellite Network in Brazil
- Regulatory Breakthrough: Brazil's telecom authority ANATEL approved ASTS's application to operate a 248-satellite non-geostationary network, with a license valid until September 2039, marking a significant advancement in the Latin American market that is expected to drive future revenue growth.
- Short Interest Pressure: As of May 18, short interest in ASTS rose to 16.6% of the float, up sharply from 13.6% at the beginning of the year, indicating market concerns about the company's future performance, which could impact stock price volatility.
- FCC Expansion Approval: The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) approved ASTS to launch 223 low-Earth orbit satellites last month, aimed at expanding its space-based cellular broadband network and enhancing direct-to-device connectivity, further solidifying its market position.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Despite the increase in short interest, retail sentiment for ASTS on Stocktwits shifted from 'extremely bullish' to 'bullish', reflecting investor optimism about the potential of the Brazilian market, with expectations for the stock to surpass $90.
See More
AST SpaceMobile Reaffirms Satellite Deployment Goal
- Satellite Deployment Progress: CEO Abel Avellan reiterated AST SpaceMobile's goal to deploy 45 satellites this year despite launch delays, with expectations of monthly launches, which will significantly enhance the company's competitiveness in the satellite broadband market.
- BlueBird Convoy Launch: AST announced that the 'BlueBird convoy' is officially underway, with the first two satellites en route to the launch pad in Florida, showcasing the company's efficiency in satellite assembly and transportation, which is expected to accelerate the construction of its satellite network.
- Broadband Technology Advantage: Avellan emphasized that AST is the only system capable of delivering hundreds of megabits per second directly to devices, with recent tests showing speeds close to 100 Mbps, enhancing the company's competitive edge against rivals like Starlink.
- Partnership Expansion: AST supports a proposed satellite connectivity joint venture with AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon to expand wireless coverage across the U.S., a strategy that will help accelerate the mainstream integration of satellite technology and further strengthen AST's market position.
See More
Rocket Lab vs AST SpaceMobile Q1 Earnings Comparison
- Rocket Lab's Strong Performance: Rocket Lab reported a 63.5% year-over-year revenue increase to $200 million in Q1, achieving a gross margin of 38.2%, although operating costs rose 40.4%, resulting in a loss of $0.07 per share, which is an improvement from last year's $0.12 loss, indicating competitive strength in the rapidly growing space market.
- Optimistic Future Guidance: Rocket Lab expects Q2 revenue to grow by 20% sequentially, with gross margins projected to decline to 33%-35%; analysts predict continued losses in the upcoming quarters, but a narrowing to $0.27 per share by 2026, reflecting a gradual path toward profitability.
- AST SpaceMobile's Disappointing Results: AST SpaceMobile reported a Q1 loss of $0.66 per share, significantly worse than the expected $0.21 loss, with revenue at only $14.7 million, missing the $37.5 million target, despite a 20-fold year-over-year growth, as operating costs surged 158%, increasing cash flow pressures.
- Cash Burn Concerns: AST SpaceMobile's cash burn reached $327.4 million in Q1, with an annual forecast of $1.8 billion; if this rate continues, it risks depleting much of its $3.5 billion cash reserves by year-end, posing significant financial challenges ahead.
See More
Trump Announces China to Buy U.S. Crude Oil
- U.S.-China Trade Agreement: Trump announced that China agreed to purchase U.S. crude oil, which not only helps ease trade tensions but also potentially boosts U.S. energy exports, enhancing domestic economic growth prospects.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following the trade deal announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reclaimed the 50,000 mark for the first time, indicating a restoration of market confidence and likely encouraging further investments in U.S. equities.
- Strong Stock Market Performance: Despite early declines in stock futures on Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track for their seventh consecutive week of gains, demonstrating market resilience and investor optimism.
- Industry Dynamics: Cerebras had a stellar debut on Nasdaq, attracting significant investor attention, reflecting strong interest in the semiconductor sector, particularly against the backdrop of surging AI infrastructure investments.
See More
Trump Increases Holdings in ASTS and RKLB Stocks
- Trump's Trading Activity: Trump purchased between $1,001 and $15,000 worth of ASTS shares on March 17 and $15,001 to $50,000 in RKLB stock on January 21, indicating confidence in both space firms and potentially attracting more investor interest.
- ASTS Performance Pressure: AST SpaceMobile reported a quarterly loss wider than Wall Street estimates in its latest earnings report, and while maintaining its full-year revenue outlook, concerns over manufacturing and launch execution risks may hinder its goal of deploying 45 satellites by year-end.
- RKLB Market Performance: Rocket Lab has emerged as one of Wall Street's biggest
See More
Major U.S. Telecoms Form Joint Venture, Boost AST SpaceMobile Stock
- Stock Surge: AST SpaceMobile's stock rose over 10% following the announcement of a joint venture by AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, reflecting strong market confidence in the company's growth potential.
- Strategic Importance of Joint Venture: The newly formed entity aims to expand coverage into 'dead zones' using satellite technology that AST SpaceMobile specializes in, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's market competitiveness and service range.
- Technological Edge: AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird satellites are equipped with the largest commercial antenna arrays ever deployed, achieving peak mobile data speeds of nearly 100 megabits per second, further solidifying its leadership in satellite communications.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Although specific details of the joint venture remain undisclosed, this development is undoubtedly poised to positively impact AST SpaceMobile's business, significantly increasing the attractiveness of its stock in the market.
See More
