Company Updates 2026 Adjusted Operating Expenses Outlook to $2.7B-$2.825B
"We are not providing a 2026 outlook for total operating expenses and have not reconciled our 2026 outlook for adjusted operating expenses and SBC to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, total operating expenses, because we are unable to predict with reasonable certainty the impact of certain items without unreasonable effort. These items include, but are not limited to, provision for credit losses and significant regulatory expenses which may be material and could have a significant impact on total operating expenses for 2026. Our prior outlook for 2026 adjusted operating expenses and SBC provided at Q4 2025 earnings was $2.6B-$2.725B. We now anticipate investing an additional $100M to build and support the user interface for Trump Accounts, which was not included in our prior outlook. Our work for Trump Accounts is contracted on a cost plus basis with a small margin, so we expect revenues to exceed costs. As a result, our updated outlook for 2026 adjusted operating expenses and SBC is $2.7B-$2.825B. This expense outlook does not include provision for credit losses, costs related to our pending acquisitions, costs related to the Rothera joint venture, costs from modifications of executive awards in connection with our CFO transition, potential significant regulatory matters, or other significant expenses that may arise or accruals we may determine in the future are required, as we are unable to accurately predict the size or timing of such matters, expenses or accruals at this time."
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- Revenue Growth: Robinhood's Q1 revenue increased by 15% year-over-year to $1.07 billion, although it fell short of expectations, indicating growth potential across the business while raising concerns about future profitability.
- User Expansion: Over 5.5 million American children are already registered with Robinhood, and 60 million are eligible, establishing a substantial user base that lays the groundwork for future market expansion.
- New Product Launch: Robinhood plans to launch its joint venture Rothera with Susquehanna in Q2, focusing on prediction markets, which will further enhance its competitive edge and attract more users.
- Cost Management: Despite adjusted operating expenses and stock-based compensation totaling $607 million, the company is actively managing costs and expects to raise full-year expenses by $100 million, demonstrating a commitment to financial health.
- UAE Exits OPEC: The UAE's announcement to exit OPEC next month represents a significant blow to the organization at a critical juncture for the energy sector, potentially impacting global oil prices and supply chain stability.
- US Market Volatility: The three major US indexes closed lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 down 0.49% and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.90%, reflecting market concerns following OpenAI's missed revenue and new user targets.
- Fed Rate Decision: Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, expected to maintain current rates, while keenly anticipating comments on inflation and economic indicators that could signal future monetary policy directions.
- Tech Earnings Anticipation: Four major tech companies—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—are set to report earnings on Wednesday, with the market looking for insights into AI demand that could influence overall market sentiment and investor confidence.
- Durable Goods Expectations: Economists forecast a 0.2% increase in durable goods orders, which could influence market sentiment and lead investors to reassess the pace of economic recovery, potentially affecting stock market volatility.
- Earnings Highlights: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Qualcomm are set to report earnings on Wednesday, with Alphabet up 4.1% and Amazon nearly 7% over the past three months, indicating strong performance in tech stocks may continue to drive market dynamics.
- Stock Volatility Insights: Qualcomm's implied volatility stands at 8%, while Alphabet and Amazon are at 5% and 7% respectively, suggesting that investors are cautious ahead of earnings reports, which may impact short-term stock price fluctuations.
- Consumer Health Analysis: CEOs from SoFi and Brinker International will discuss consumer health on
- Earnings Miss: Robinhood's Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.38 fell short of expectations by $0.01, indicating pressure on profitability that could undermine investor confidence moving forward.
- Revenue Shortfall: The company reported revenue of $1.07 billion, missing the $1.14 billion forecast by $70 million, reflecting a decline in user engagement and trading volume, which may hinder future growth prospects.
- Negative Market Reaction: The stock slumped following the disappointing earnings and revenue results, raising concerns among investors about the company's future profitability and competitive position in the market, potentially impacting its stock performance.
- Innovation and Growth Potential: Despite the current underperformance, Robinhood is still viewed as a leader in innovation, and if it can effectively navigate market challenges and continue asset growth, it may achieve multiple expansions in the future, attracting renewed investor interest.











