Company Sees FY26 Average Closing Price at $580,000-$590,000
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 11 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TMHC?
Sees FY26 average closing price $580,000-$590,000. Sees FY26 effective tax rate 25%. The company said, "We pride ourselves on developing thoughtfully-designed communities in prime locations, often with amenities, and offering a balanced mix of spec and to-be-built home offerings that meet the needs and aspirations of our customers. As we head into 2026, I expect these competitive strengths-our diversification, attractive product offerings and consumer-centric philosophy-to be even more critical to our success as we move forward. With competitive pricing pressures unlikely to meaningfully abate in the foreseeable future and housing fundamentals continuing to evolve, we are taking proactive steps to ensure our portfolio remains well positioned to perform regardless of the market backdrop. These steps include limiting future investments in non-core submarkets while refocusing on our core first-and-second move-up segment, leaning further into the opportunity to expand our differentiated Esplanade resort lifestyle brand and doubling down on innovation across our organization."
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Analyst Views on TMHC
Wall Street analysts forecast TMHC stock price to rise
5 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 60.240
Low
62.00
Averages
74.80
High
95.00
Current: 60.240
Low
62.00
Averages
74.80
High
95.00
About TMHC
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation is a homebuilder and developer. The Company's principal business is residential homebuilding and the development of lifestyle communities with operations across 12 states. The Company provides an assortment of homes across a range of price points to appeal to an array of consumer groups. It designs, builds and sells single and multi-family detached and attached homes in traditionally high growth markets for entry level, move-up, and resort lifestyle buyers. It operates under various brand names, including Taylor Morrison, Darling Homes Collection by Taylor Morrison, and Esplanade. It also has a Build-to-Rent homebuilding business which operates under the Yardly brand name. It owns and operates commercial space, retail, and multi-family properties under the Urban Form brand name. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides financial services and title services. The Company, through its insurance agency, provides homeowner’s insurance policies.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Market Comparison: TMHC's RSI of 28.5 contrasts with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at 36.7, suggesting that the recent heavy selling is waning, potentially setting the stage for a rebound.
- Historical Performance: TMHC's 52-week low is $51.895 and high is $72.50, with the current trading price at $59.10, indicating potential upside within its trading range.
- Investor Sentiment: The emergence of oversold signals may shift market sentiment towards optimism, attracting more investor interest in TMHC, especially as the stock approaches its 52-week low.
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- Margin Performance: Achieving a gross margin of 21.8% on home closings, Taylor Morrison faced a cautious margin outlook, prompting BofA Securities to lower its 2026 EPS forecast by 10%, yet the stock remains fairly valued.
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Taylor Morrison Paves the Way for Women in Construction
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- Career Development Stories: Kaila Perrault, a Build-to-Rent Superintendent from Charlotte, joined as an intern in 2025 with a project management degree and quickly advanced to a full-time role, emphasizing the importance of hard work and embracing the learning process, reflecting the company's support for women's career growth.
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Taylor Morrison Advances Women in Construction Industry
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- Leadership Gender Balance: The company boasts a 50% female representation in senior leadership roles, which is over four times the U.S. construction industry average, showcasing significant achievements in promoting gender equality and female leadership, thereby enhancing its competitive edge in the industry.
- Career Development Stories: Female employees like Kaila Perrault and Rose Rodriguez share their career growth experiences, emphasizing the importance of embracing challenges and continuous learning in the construction industry, which not only inspires more women to join but also strengthens the company's team.
- Industry Influence: CEO Sheryl Palmer has been the only woman to lead a publicly traded homebuilder since 2007, and the company's initiatives not only elevate women's status in the construction sector but also lay a foundation for the industry's future development, driving broader social change.
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Kohl's and Oracle Earnings Preview
- Kohl's Earnings Preview: Kohl's is set to report earnings before the bell, with its stock down approximately 37% over the past three months and 41% from December highs, indicating ongoing pressure in the retail sector that may affect investor confidence.
- Oracle Earnings Outlook: Oracle will release its earnings report after the bell, having seen its stock decline over 31% in the last three months and 56% from September highs, reflecting market concerns about its data center and AI transformation that could impact future growth expectations.
- Existing Home Sales Data: Existing home sales figures will be released at 10 a.m. ET, and despite declines in companies like PulteGroup and Toll Brothers over the past month, they have shown positive year-to-date performance, with Pulte and Toll both up around 8%, indicating resilience in the housing market.
- Boeing Orders and Deliveries: Boeing will announce orders and deliveries data at 11 a.m., and while its stock has fallen 8% in the last month, it has gained over 45% in the past 12 months, showcasing long-term growth potential that investors should monitor amid short-term volatility.
See More
Taylor Morrison Stock Shows Oversold Signal
- Oversold Indicator: Taylor Morrison (TMHC) shares fell to $58.56 on Monday, resulting in an RSI of 28.5, indicating an oversold condition that may prompt investors to seek buying opportunities.
- Market Comparison: TMHC's RSI of 28.5 contrasts with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at 36.7, suggesting that the recent heavy selling is waning, potentially setting the stage for a rebound.
- Historical Performance: TMHC's 52-week low is $51.895 and high is $72.50, with the current trading price at $59.10, indicating potential upside within its trading range.
- Investor Sentiment: The emergence of oversold signals may shift market sentiment towards optimism, attracting more investor interest in TMHC, especially as the stock approaches its 52-week low.
See More
Taylor Morrison Home Price Target Raised Amid Strong Earnings
- Earnings Beat: Taylor Morrison Home reported an adjusted EPS of $1.91 for Q4 2025, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.73, indicating strong profitability amid market challenges.
- Revenue Growth: The company generated $1.96 billion in revenue, slightly above the expected $1.95 billion, despite an 8% year-over-year decline in home closings, with a 2% increase in average selling price reflecting sustained market demand.
- Margin Performance: Achieving a gross margin of 21.8% on home closings, Taylor Morrison faced a cautious margin outlook, prompting BofA Securities to lower its 2026 EPS forecast by 10%, yet the stock remains fairly valued.
- Future Outlook: The company anticipates 2,200 home closings and a 20% gross margin in Q1 2026, with a full-year target of 11,000 home closings, demonstrating confidence in its market position and operational strategy.
See More
Taylor Morrison Paves the Way for Women in Construction
- Women in Construction: During Women in Construction Week from March 1-7, 2026, Taylor Morrison highlights the significance of women in construction roles, showcasing their experiences and advice to attract diverse talent into the industry.
- Career Development Stories: Kaila Perrault, a Build-to-Rent Superintendent from Charlotte, joined as an intern in 2025 with a project management degree and quickly advanced to a full-time role, emphasizing the importance of hard work and embracing the learning process, reflecting the company's support for women's career growth.
- Role Challenges and Growth: Tess Hughes, a Permit Coordinator based in Sarasota, has worked at Taylor Morrison for four years, where her role involves collaborating with counties and vendors while assisting superintendents, highlighting her learning about the building process and efficiency improvements, showcasing the company's commitment to women's professional development.
- Industry Advice: Rose Rodriguez, a Senior Division Cadence Manager with 22 years of experience, encourages women to confidently explore new opportunities, emphasizing the industry's broad scope and the space available for various skill sets, further promoting women's participation in construction.
See More
Taylor Morrison Advances Women in Construction Industry
- Women in Workforce: As of March 2026, Taylor Morrison employs 71 women in construction-specific roles, with 38% being Gen Z and Millennials, reflecting the company's proactive efforts to attract young women into the construction industry and cultivate a diverse talent pipeline for the future.
- Leadership Gender Balance: The company boasts a 50% female representation in senior leadership roles, which is over four times the U.S. construction industry average, showcasing significant achievements in promoting gender equality and female leadership, thereby enhancing its competitive edge in the industry.
- Career Development Stories: Female employees like Kaila Perrault and Rose Rodriguez share their career growth experiences, emphasizing the importance of embracing challenges and continuous learning in the construction industry, which not only inspires more women to join but also strengthens the company's team.
- Industry Influence: CEO Sheryl Palmer has been the only woman to lead a publicly traded homebuilder since 2007, and the company's initiatives not only elevate women's status in the construction sector but also lay a foundation for the industry's future development, driving broader social change.
See More
Truist Predicts Decline in Home Builder Revenue This Year, Yet Recommends These 4 Stocks for Purchase.
Home-builder revenue forecast: Home-builder revenue is expected to decline significantly in 2026 due to ongoing pressures in the housing market.
Investor opportunities: Despite the revenue drop, the situation presents a favorable opportunity for investors looking to target specific builders.
See More
