Company Raises FY26 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook to $453.8M-$461.8M
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy CXW?
Consensus $1.61. Raises FY26 adjusted EBITDA view to $453.8M-$461.8M from $437M-$445M. The company said, "Our guidance has been updated to include the acquisition of CSP and activation of the Midwest Regional Reception Center, which successfully obtained an SUP and began receiving detainee populations in March 2026. Our guidance has also been updated to reflect a recent decrease in nationwide ICE populations compared with our prior guidance, due to enforcement redeployments and overall strategy adjustments within DHS, which we believe is temporary."
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Analyst Views on CXW
Wall Street analysts forecast CXW stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 20.330
Low
28.00
Averages
30.00
High
32.00
Current: 20.330
Low
28.00
Averages
30.00
High
32.00
About CXW
CoreCivic, Inc. is a diversified, government-solutions company. The Company provides a range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. Its CoreCivic Safety segment consists of correctional and detention facilities that are owned or controlled via a long-term lease and managed by the Company, as well as those correctional and detention facilities owned by third parties but managed by the Company. The segment also provides transportation services. CoreCivic Community segment consists of residential reentry centers that are owned or controlled via a long-term lease and managed by the Company. The segment also includes electronic monitoring and case management services. CoreCivic Properties segment consists of correctional real estate properties owned by the Company.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
CoreCivic Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Significant Revenue Growth: CoreCivic's revenue from federal partners surged by 48% year-over-year in Q1 2026, accounting for 58% of total revenue, indicating strong performance in the federal market and expected to further enhance overall financial health.
- Earnings Guidance Raised: The company anticipates adjusted diluted EPS of $1.53 to $1.63 for 2026, up from previous guidance of $1.49 to $1.59, reflecting management's confidence in future performance despite potential short-term pressures from declining ICE populations.
- Acquisition of New Business: CoreCivic acquired Clinical Solutions Pharmacy in April 2026, expected to generate $215 million to $230 million in revenue for 2026, diversifying revenue streams and addressing the growing complex medical needs of correctional populations, enhancing long-term growth potential.
- Share Repurchase Program: In Q1, the company repurchased 2.3 million shares at a cost of $44.7 million, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's future, while still having $255.8 million available under the board's authorization as of March 31.
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- CoreCivic's Growth Challenges: CoreCivic has reported a mere 3% annual revenue growth over the last five years, with a 7.3 percentage point drop in free cash flow margin, indicating increased capital intensity amid rising competition, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of only 5.9% reflects management's struggles in finding attractive investment opportunities.
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- Core Constitutional Dispute: The case centers on the Citizenship Clause of the 14th Amendment, which states that 'all persons born or naturalized in the United States are citizens,' while the Trump administration seeks to adopt a narrower 'jurisdictional' theory that would exclude children of those without legal status.
- Market and Policy Implications: A ruling in favor of Trump's policy could create immediate administrative and economic ripple effects, impacting areas such as healthcare eligibility and future labor force projections, potentially leading to significant adjustments in social service systems.
- Political and Judicial Independence: The timing of the case is sensitive, as Trump has escalated his criticism of the judiciary, and legal analysts suggest this case could serve as a political tool for him, potentially resulting in a landmark victory for his immigration agenda or framing the conservative-led court as an obstacle to his domestic security goals.
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Key Wall Street Rating Updates from Tuesday
- Apple Services Strength: Evercore ISI reiterates Apple as outperform based on a survey of 3,500 smartphone users indicating continued strength in Apple Services like Apple TV, with both engagement and monetization trending higher, suggesting enhanced competitiveness in its services ecosystem.
- Ralph Lauren Brand Elevation: Citi upgrades Ralph Lauren from neutral to buy, citing management's brand elevation efforts that have driven strong performance, with a projected 6.5% sales CAGR and over 350bps EBIT margin expansion by FY26, indicating significant long-term growth potential.
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Company Overview: CoreCivic is a company that focuses on providing correctional and detention services.
Investment Rating: The company has received a "Buy" rating from analysts, indicating positive expectations for its stock performance.
Target Price: Analysts have set a target price of $28 for CoreCivic's stock, suggesting potential growth.
Market Position: The coverage of CoreCivic's stock reflects its significance in the market and investor interest.
See More
CoreCivic Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Significant Revenue Growth: CoreCivic's revenue from federal partners surged by 48% year-over-year in Q1 2026, accounting for 58% of total revenue, indicating strong performance in the federal market and expected to further enhance overall financial health.
- Earnings Guidance Raised: The company anticipates adjusted diluted EPS of $1.53 to $1.63 for 2026, up from previous guidance of $1.49 to $1.59, reflecting management's confidence in future performance despite potential short-term pressures from declining ICE populations.
- Acquisition of New Business: CoreCivic acquired Clinical Solutions Pharmacy in April 2026, expected to generate $215 million to $230 million in revenue for 2026, diversifying revenue streams and addressing the growing complex medical needs of correctional populations, enhancing long-term growth potential.
- Share Repurchase Program: In Q1, the company repurchased 2.3 million shares at a cost of $44.7 million, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's future, while still having $255.8 million available under the board's authorization as of March 31.
See More
Organon & Co Options Volume Surges Significantly
- Surge in Options Volume: Organon & Co's options trading volume reached 70,867 contracts today, representing approximately 7.1 million shares, which constitutes 93.4% of its average daily trading volume of 7.6 million shares over the past month, indicating strong market interest in its future performance.
- High Liquidity Options: Notably, the $11 strike call option expiring on May 15, 2026, saw a trading volume of 10,996 contracts today, equating to about 1.1 million shares, suggesting bullish sentiment among investors at this price level.
- CS Disco Inc Options Activity: In parallel, CS Disco Inc recorded an options trading volume of 1,695 contracts, representing approximately 169,500 shares, which is about 89% of its average daily trading volume of 190,370 shares over the past month, indicating market interest in this company as well.
- Market Trend Analysis: The high trading volumes of these options contracts reflect investor optimism regarding the future trajectories of Organon and CS Disco Inc, which could influence their stock price volatility and overall market sentiment.
See More
Business Services Sector Faces Challenges Amid AI Disruption
- Sector Performance Decline: The business services sector has collectively dropped 7.6% over the past six months, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 2.8% decline, indicating investor concerns over AI disruptors and tightening budgets.
- Getty Images Underperformance: Despite boasting over 562 million visual assets, Getty Images has only achieved a 3.5% annual growth rate over the past two years, which is below industry standards, while its free cash flow margin has shrunk by 14.8 percentage points over five years, suggesting declining competitiveness.
- CoreCivic's Growth Challenges: CoreCivic has reported a mere 3% annual revenue growth over the last five years, with a 7.3 percentage point drop in free cash flow margin, indicating increased capital intensity amid rising competition, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of only 5.9% reflects management's struggles in finding attractive investment opportunities.
- IonQ's Strong Performance: IonQ has demonstrated an impressive 143% annual revenue growth over the past two years, with expected revenue growth of 81.7% over the next 12 months, indicating significant market share gains, although its stock trades at $27.98 per share with a price-to-sales ratio of 45 times.
See More
Supreme Court to Hear Landmark Birthright Citizenship Case
- Legal Challenge Intensifies: The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on President Trump's executive order to end birthright citizenship this Wednesday, marking one of the most significant constitutional challenges of the 2026 term that could affect millions of children born in the U.S.
- Core Constitutional Dispute: The case centers on the Citizenship Clause of the 14th Amendment, which states that 'all persons born or naturalized in the United States are citizens,' while the Trump administration seeks to adopt a narrower 'jurisdictional' theory that would exclude children of those without legal status.
- Market and Policy Implications: A ruling in favor of Trump's policy could create immediate administrative and economic ripple effects, impacting areas such as healthcare eligibility and future labor force projections, potentially leading to significant adjustments in social service systems.
- Political and Judicial Independence: The timing of the case is sensitive, as Trump has escalated his criticism of the judiciary, and legal analysts suggest this case could serve as a political tool for him, potentially resulting in a landmark victory for his immigration agenda or framing the conservative-led court as an obstacle to his domestic security goals.
See More
Key Wall Street Rating Updates from Tuesday
- Apple Services Strength: Evercore ISI reiterates Apple as outperform based on a survey of 3,500 smartphone users indicating continued strength in Apple Services like Apple TV, with both engagement and monetization trending higher, suggesting enhanced competitiveness in its services ecosystem.
- Ralph Lauren Brand Elevation: Citi upgrades Ralph Lauren from neutral to buy, citing management's brand elevation efforts that have driven strong performance, with a projected 6.5% sales CAGR and over 350bps EBIT margin expansion by FY26, indicating significant long-term growth potential.
- Ecolab Investment Opportunity: JPMorgan upgrades Ecolab from neutral to overweight, noting that the stock has declined since February 27 amid rising Middle East tensions, while the broader market is down 4%, suggesting a buying opportunity for investors anticipating a rebound.
- AI Infrastructure Market Outlook: Bank of America initiates coverage of Nebius Group with a buy rating and a $150 price target, highlighting the company's differentiated offering in the rapidly growing AI Infrastructure-as-a-Service market, expected to benefit from sustained demand for AI computing.
See More
CORECIVIC INC: BENCHMARK STARTS COVERAGE WITH A BUY RATING AND A TARGET PRICE OF $28
Company Overview: CoreCivic is a company that focuses on providing correctional and detention services.
Investment Rating: The company has received a "Buy" rating from analysts, indicating positive expectations for its stock performance.
Target Price: Analysts have set a target price of $28 for CoreCivic's stock, suggesting potential growth.
Market Position: The coverage of CoreCivic's stock reflects its significance in the market and investor interest.
See More
