Company Expects Q4 2025 Net Revenues Between RMB 2.52 Billion and RMB 2.62 Billion
The company said, "For the fourth quarter of 2025, the Company expects total net revenues to be between RMB2.52 billion to RMB2.62 billion, representing a decrease of 4.4% to 0.6% year over year. This forecast reflects the Company's current and preliminary views on the market and operational conditions, which are subject to change"
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Global Market Trends: Investors are currently favoring narratives over financial fundamentals, leading to many companies trading below their book value despite strong balance sheets and financial health, particularly in the U.S., Europe, Japan, and China.
U.S. Market Insights: In the U.S., many asset-intensive businesses, especially in the financial sector, are undervalued despite solid capital positions and liquidity, reflecting a market mindset of crisis rather than current financial realities.
European Financial Strength: European banks and industrial companies are well-capitalized and generating profits, yet they are trading below tangible book value due to market perceptions of impending downturns, creating investment opportunities.
Japanese and Chinese Opportunities: Japan's companies often have strong balance sheets with net cash positions, while in China, a distinction exists between companies with solid financials and those facing real risks, presenting a selective investment landscape focused on financial strength.

- Revenue Decline: In Q3 2025, total net revenue was RMB 2.65 billion (USD 372.3 million), a 0.9% decrease from RMB 2.67 billion in Q3 2024, primarily due to weak consumer sentiment in the domestic market, indicating intensified competitive pressures.
- Overseas Growth: Despite the overall revenue decline, overseas revenue surged from RMB 316.4 million to RMB 534.8 million (USD 75.1 million) year-over-year, highlighting significant success in expanding social entertainment brands in the MENA region.
- Rising Operating Costs: Total costs and expenses reached RMB 2.31 billion (USD 324.4 million) in Q3, up 1.0% year-over-year, mainly driven by increased revenue sharing with overseas app partners, reflecting the company's heightened investment in international markets.
- Profit Decline: Q3 2025 net income was RMB 349.6 million (USD 49.1 million), down 22.1% from RMB 449.4 million in Q3 2024, indicating challenges in profitability that necessitate improved cost control and strategic market adjustments.
- Revenue Decline: Hello Group reported total net revenues of RMB 2.65 billion (approximately $372.3 million) in Q3 2025, a 0.9% year-over-year decrease primarily due to challenges in the domestic Chinese market, indicating significant operational hurdles.
- Overseas Market Growth: Despite the overall revenue decline, net revenues from overseas surged by 69.0% year-over-year to RMB 534.8 million (approximately $75.1 million), suggesting that Hello Group's international expansion strategy is beginning to yield positive results.
- Net Income Drop: The net income attributable to Hello Group was RMB 349.6 million (approximately $49.1 million) in Q3 2025, down 22.3% from RMB 449.4 million in the same period of 2024, reflecting pressure on the company's profitability.
- Decline in Paying Users: The number of paying users for the Momo app decreased from 6.9 million last year to 3.7 million, indicating a slowdown in user growth that could impact future revenue potential.
Earnings Reports Overview: Retail investors are gearing up for a week of earnings reports, with notable companies like Toll Brothers, GameStop, and Oracle set to release their financial results.
Toll Brothers Expectations: Analysts anticipate Toll Brothers will report Q4 earnings of approximately $4.89 per share, focusing on the impact of luxury demand amidst housing affordability challenges.
Oracle's Key Focus: Oracle's upcoming earnings report is highly anticipated, with expectations of $1.64 per share and $16.22 billion in revenue, as investors look for insights on its AI investments and cloud revenue growth.
Broadcom and Other Reports: Broadcom is expected to be a highlight on Thursday, with analysts predicting earnings of $1.86 per share, alongside other companies like Costco and Lululemon also reporting their results.
Global Market Overview: November 2025 saw a significant relief rally in global markets following the resolution of a historic U.S. government shutdown, with strong performances from various international stocks, particularly in Argentina and Hong Kong.
U.S. Economic Conditions: The prolonged government shutdown negatively impacted the U.S. economy, leading to increased job dismissals and deteriorating consumer sentiment, although the market rebounded as political resolution emerged.
Regional Market Performance: European markets showed cautious optimism with gains across major indices, while Asian markets, particularly in China and Hong Kong, displayed signs of stabilization and recovery, especially in the property sector.
Investment Strategy and Outlook: The Perfect Stock portfolio, adhering to value investing principles, focuses on companies trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value, with a diversified global approach that positions it well for future opportunities amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
Earnings Release Announcement: Hello Group Inc. will release its unaudited financial results for Q3 2025 on December 10, 2025, before U.S. markets open.
Conference Call Details: An earnings conference call is scheduled for December 10, 2025, at 7:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time, with preregistration required for participants.
Replay Information: A telephone replay of the conference call will be available until December 17, 2025, with specific dial-in details provided.
Company Overview: Hello Group Inc. is a major player in Asia's online social networking, operating platforms like Momo and Tantan to facilitate social interactions and dating.









