Commvault Reports Strong Earnings but Weak Outlook Causes Stock Plunge
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 9h ago
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Strong Earnings: Commvault reported record revenue of $314 million for Q3 FY2023, a 19% year-over-year increase, with subscription revenue rising 30% to $206 million, indicating robust performance in the data and cybersecurity sector.
- Stock Plunge: Despite exceeding earnings expectations, Commvault's stock fell 33% to $86.80 per share post-earnings, marking a 52-week low, reflecting market disappointment regarding future growth prospects.
- Weak Outlook: The company forecasts FY2026 revenue between $1.177 billion and $1.118 billion, representing only 21% to 22% growth, which is below analysts' expectations of $1.190 billion, signaling signs of slowing growth.
- Valuation Pressure: Following the significant stock drop, Commvault's price-to-earnings ratio has become more reasonable, although analysts still view it as a buying opportunity, with a median price target of $177 suggesting potential for a price doubling.
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Analyst Views on CVLT
Wall Street analysts forecast CVLT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVLT is 182.27 USD with a low forecast of 144.00 USD and a high forecast of 220.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 87.500
Low
144.00
Averages
182.27
High
220.00
Current: 87.500
Low
144.00
Averages
182.27
High
220.00
About CVLT
Commvault Systems, Inc. is a provider of cyber resilience and data protection solutions. The Company’s cyber resilience platform combines data security and rapid recovery at enterprise scale across any workload. The Company provides these products and services for their data across many types of environments, including on-premises, hybrid and multi-cloud. Its offerings are delivered via self-managed software, software-as-a-service (SaaS), integrated appliances, or managed by partners. Its Commvault Cloud offerings are organized into three packages, such as Operational Recovery, Autonomous Recovery and Cyber Recovery. Its Operational Recovery provides backup, verifiable recovery, and cost-optimized cloud workload mobility, helping to ensure data availability and granular recovery, even across multiple clouds. In addition, it also provides customers with a range of offerings, including Cleanroom Recovery, HyperScale X, Air Gap Protect, Cloud Rewind, Clumio Backtrack and Compliance.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Commvault Reports Strong Earnings but Weak Outlook Causes Stock Plunge
- Strong Earnings: Commvault reported record revenue of $314 million for Q3 FY2023, a 19% year-over-year increase, with subscription revenue rising 30% to $206 million, indicating robust performance in the data and cybersecurity sector.
- Stock Plunge: Despite exceeding earnings expectations, Commvault's stock fell 33% to $86.80 per share post-earnings, marking a 52-week low, reflecting market disappointment regarding future growth prospects.
- Weak Outlook: The company forecasts FY2026 revenue between $1.177 billion and $1.118 billion, representing only 21% to 22% growth, which is below analysts' expectations of $1.190 billion, signaling signs of slowing growth.
- Valuation Pressure: Following the significant stock drop, Commvault's price-to-earnings ratio has become more reasonable, although analysts still view it as a buying opportunity, with a median price target of $177 suggesting potential for a price doubling.
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Commvault Stock Plummets 33% After Earnings Report Despite Record Revenue
- Earnings Report Disappointment: Commvault's Q3 earnings revealed a 19% year-over-year revenue increase to $314 million, yet the stock plummeted 33% to $86.80 per share, marking a 52-week low, indicating investor concerns over high valuations despite solid performance.
- Strong Subscription Revenue: Approximately two-thirds of the company's revenue comes from software subscriptions, which rose 30% to $206 million, while annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased by 28% to $941 million, demonstrating sustained demand in the data and cybersecurity sectors.
- Outlook Slightly Weak: Although management forecasts revenue for fiscal 2026 to reach between $1.177 billion and $1.118 billion, reflecting a 21% to 22% growth, this is below analysts' consensus estimates, leading to a cautious market sentiment.
- Analysts Remain Bullish: Despite recent price target downgrades, Commvault's stock is still viewed as a strong buy by analysts, with a median price target of $177, suggesting potential for a doubling of the current price, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects.
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