Chinese EV market August overview: BYD’s dominance unmatched, Li Auto follows
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Sep 02 2024
0mins
Should l Buy NIO?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Chinese EV Market Growth: The Chinese electric vehicle market is experiencing significant growth, with BYD and Li Auto reporting year-over-year delivery increases of 36% and 37.8%, respectively, despite some month-over-month fluctuations.
Delivery Performance of Key Players: XPeng and NIO also showed positive trends, with XPeng achieving a 25.9% year-over-year increase and NIO maintaining deliveries above 20,000 units for the fourth consecutive month, although both faced slight declines from previous months.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy NIO?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on NIO
Wall Street analysts forecast NIO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NIO is 5.90 USD with a low forecast of 4.00 USD and a high forecast of 7.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 5.040
Low
4.00
Averages
5.90
High
7.00
Current: 5.040
Low
4.00
Averages
5.90
High
7.00
About NIO
NIO Inc is a holding company mainly engaged in the design, development, manufacturing and sales of smart electric vehicles. The Company offers premium smart electric vehicles under the NIO brand, family-oriented smart electric vehicles through the ONVO brand, and small smart high-end electric cars with the FIREFLY brand. The Company focuses on building in-house capabilities including battery swapping, assisted and intelligent driving, digital technologies, electric powertrain and battery, vehicle engineering and design, among others, to control the design and development of the vehicle software and hardware architecture and the critical components.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Nio's Stock Valuation Appears Undervalued
- Market Performance: Since going public at $6.26 per share in 2018, Nio's stock has consistently traded below $5, with a current market cap of 88.4 billion yuan ($12.7 billion), indicating a valuation of less than one times this year's sales, reflecting market caution regarding its future growth prospects.
- Battery Swap Network Expansion: Nio has expanded its battery swap stations from 777 at the end of 2021 to over 3,500 across China and Europe, demonstrating significant investment in infrastructure and market penetration capabilities in the electric vehicle sector.
- Delivery Volume Growth: Nio's vehicle deliveries are expected to grow from 91,429 in 2021 to 221,970 by 2024, with a projected 336,221 vehicles delivered in 2025, primarily driven by its higher-end models and the newly launched Onvo and Firefly series.
- Profit Expectations: Nio anticipates achieving its first quarterly profit in Q4 2025, with analysts forecasting a 29% CAGR in revenue from 2025 to 2027; if these expectations are met, the stock could potentially rise over 8 times in the next 12 months.
See More
Nio Inc Recalls 246,229 Vehicles Due to Software Issues
- Record Recall: Nio Inc is recalling 246,229 vehicles, including ES8, ES6, and EC6 models, due to a software issue, representing about 75% of its projected 2025 sales volume, which could negatively impact the company's short-term performance.
- Software Issue Impact: The recall affects vehicles manufactured between March 16, 2018, and January 16, 2023, with the software problem potentially causing brief blackouts of the instrument cluster and central control screen; Nio plans to address this through remote software updates and service center upgrades, demonstrating its commitment to customer safety.
- Positive Profit Outlook: Despite the recall, Nio expects an adjusted operational profit of approximately 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan (around $100 million to $172 million) for Q4 2025, contrasting sharply with a 5.54 billion yuan loss in Q4 2024, indicating potential recovery for the company.
- Significant Delivery Growth: In January, Nio reported a 96.1% year-over-year increase in deliveries, reaching 27,182 vehicles, with the third-generation ES8 SUV accounting for nearly two-thirds of total deliveries, highlighting the company's ongoing investment in smart EV technologies and its competitive market position.
See More
JPMorgan Lowers Nio Price Target to $7 Amid Profit Projections
- Price Target Adjustment: JPMorgan has lowered Nio's price target from $8 to $7, which still implies a 39% upside from the last closing price, indicating a cautious market sentiment regarding Nio's future profitability potential.
- First Profit Projection: Nio expects to achieve an adjusted operating profit of 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan in Q4 2025, a significant turnaround from a 5.54 billion yuan loss a year ago, reflecting positive progress in sales growth and cost management.
- Profitability in Power Business: CEO William Li stated that Nio aims to achieve profitability in its power business by 2026, planning to open 1,000 additional battery swap stations, which underscores its ongoing investment and strategic focus on electric vehicle charging infrastructure.
- Positive Market Sentiment: Despite the price target cut by JPMorgan, retail sentiment on Stocktwits remains 'bullish', with users expressing optimism about the company's first quarterly profit, reflecting investor confidence in Nio's future growth trajectory.
See More
Nio Sets Delivery Records, Boosting Investor Confidence
- Delivery Records Broken: Nio set a new monthly delivery record with 48,135 vehicles in December 2025, and fourth-quarter deliveries surged 71% year-over-year, indicating strong market demand and brand strength.
- Margin Improvement: Despite facing a brutal price war in China's automotive market, Nio's gross margin increased by 50.7% year-over-year in Q3, showcasing the company's success in cost control and product value.
- New Models Launching: Nio plans to launch three large SUVs this year, including the flagship ES9, expected to retail near $72,000, which will further enhance the company's margins.
- Future Growth Potential: Nio's management anticipates a compound annual growth rate of 40-50% in deliveries over the next two years, aiming for breakeven in 2026, reflecting strong confidence and strategic positioning for future growth.
See More
Nio Expects First-Ever Adjusted Operating Profit in Q4
- First Profit Expectation: Nio anticipates an adjusted operating profit between 700 million and 1.2 billion yuan for Q4, marking its first-ever quarterly profit, which demonstrates the sustainability of its business model and competitive position in the EV market.
- Significant Delivery Growth: The company delivered 124,807 electric vehicles in Q4 2024, representing a nearly 72% increase year-over-year, likely enabling it to cross the break-even point, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Stock Price Surge: Following the profit announcement, Nio's American depositary shares rose approximately 7.3%, reflecting market optimism about its future performance and potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Enhanced Financial Transparency: By excluding share-based compensation costs from its adjusted profit calculations, Nio provides investors with a clearer basis for comparing quarterly results, thereby improving the transparency and credibility of its financial reporting.
See More
Nio Expects Q4 2025 Profit for First Time
- Quarterly Profit Expectation: Nio anticipates an adjusted profit from operations in Q4 2025 ranging from approximately RMB 700 million to RMB 1.2 billion ($100.89 million), marking the first time the EV maker expects quarterly profitability, reflecting positive outcomes from sales volume growth, vehicle margin optimization, and cost reduction efforts.
- Record Deliveries: In Q4 2025, Nio delivered 124,807 vehicles, representing a 72% year-on-year increase and setting a new quarterly record, which not only boosts market confidence but also lays a foundation for future profitability.
- Analyst Ratings Optimistic: According to Koyfin, 16 out of 26 analysts covering Nio rate it as ‘buy’ or higher, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance, with an average price target of $6.64, suggesting over 30% upside potential from current trading levels.
- Investor Sentiment Soars: Following the profit alert, Nio's shares rallied 7% over two consecutive trading days, and on Stocktwits, retail sentiment shifted from ‘bullish’ to ‘extremely bullish’, highlighting strong market interest in Nio's profitability turning point.
See More
Nio's Stock Valuation Appears Undervalued
- Market Performance: Since going public at $6.26 per share in 2018, Nio's stock has consistently traded below $5, with a current market cap of 88.4 billion yuan ($12.7 billion), indicating a valuation of less than one times this year's sales, reflecting market caution regarding its future growth prospects.
- Battery Swap Network Expansion: Nio has expanded its battery swap stations from 777 at the end of 2021 to over 3,500 across China and Europe, demonstrating significant investment in infrastructure and market penetration capabilities in the electric vehicle sector.
- Delivery Volume Growth: Nio's vehicle deliveries are expected to grow from 91,429 in 2021 to 221,970 by 2024, with a projected 336,221 vehicles delivered in 2025, primarily driven by its higher-end models and the newly launched Onvo and Firefly series.
- Profit Expectations: Nio anticipates achieving its first quarterly profit in Q4 2025, with analysts forecasting a 29% CAGR in revenue from 2025 to 2027; if these expectations are met, the stock could potentially rise over 8 times in the next 12 months.
See More
Nio Inc Recalls 246,229 Vehicles Due to Software Issues
- Record Recall: Nio Inc is recalling 246,229 vehicles, including ES8, ES6, and EC6 models, due to a software issue, representing about 75% of its projected 2025 sales volume, which could negatively impact the company's short-term performance.
- Software Issue Impact: The recall affects vehicles manufactured between March 16, 2018, and January 16, 2023, with the software problem potentially causing brief blackouts of the instrument cluster and central control screen; Nio plans to address this through remote software updates and service center upgrades, demonstrating its commitment to customer safety.
- Positive Profit Outlook: Despite the recall, Nio expects an adjusted operational profit of approximately 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan (around $100 million to $172 million) for Q4 2025, contrasting sharply with a 5.54 billion yuan loss in Q4 2024, indicating potential recovery for the company.
- Significant Delivery Growth: In January, Nio reported a 96.1% year-over-year increase in deliveries, reaching 27,182 vehicles, with the third-generation ES8 SUV accounting for nearly two-thirds of total deliveries, highlighting the company's ongoing investment in smart EV technologies and its competitive market position.
See More
JPMorgan Lowers Nio Price Target to $7 Amid Profit Projections
- Price Target Adjustment: JPMorgan has lowered Nio's price target from $8 to $7, which still implies a 39% upside from the last closing price, indicating a cautious market sentiment regarding Nio's future profitability potential.
- First Profit Projection: Nio expects to achieve an adjusted operating profit of 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan in Q4 2025, a significant turnaround from a 5.54 billion yuan loss a year ago, reflecting positive progress in sales growth and cost management.
- Profitability in Power Business: CEO William Li stated that Nio aims to achieve profitability in its power business by 2026, planning to open 1,000 additional battery swap stations, which underscores its ongoing investment and strategic focus on electric vehicle charging infrastructure.
- Positive Market Sentiment: Despite the price target cut by JPMorgan, retail sentiment on Stocktwits remains 'bullish', with users expressing optimism about the company's first quarterly profit, reflecting investor confidence in Nio's future growth trajectory.
See More
Nio Sets Delivery Records, Boosting Investor Confidence
- Delivery Records Broken: Nio set a new monthly delivery record with 48,135 vehicles in December 2025, and fourth-quarter deliveries surged 71% year-over-year, indicating strong market demand and brand strength.
- Margin Improvement: Despite facing a brutal price war in China's automotive market, Nio's gross margin increased by 50.7% year-over-year in Q3, showcasing the company's success in cost control and product value.
- New Models Launching: Nio plans to launch three large SUVs this year, including the flagship ES9, expected to retail near $72,000, which will further enhance the company's margins.
- Future Growth Potential: Nio's management anticipates a compound annual growth rate of 40-50% in deliveries over the next two years, aiming for breakeven in 2026, reflecting strong confidence and strategic positioning for future growth.
See More
Nio Expects First-Ever Adjusted Operating Profit in Q4
- First Profit Expectation: Nio anticipates an adjusted operating profit between 700 million and 1.2 billion yuan for Q4, marking its first-ever quarterly profit, which demonstrates the sustainability of its business model and competitive position in the EV market.
- Significant Delivery Growth: The company delivered 124,807 electric vehicles in Q4 2024, representing a nearly 72% increase year-over-year, likely enabling it to cross the break-even point, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Stock Price Surge: Following the profit announcement, Nio's American depositary shares rose approximately 7.3%, reflecting market optimism about its future performance and potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Enhanced Financial Transparency: By excluding share-based compensation costs from its adjusted profit calculations, Nio provides investors with a clearer basis for comparing quarterly results, thereby improving the transparency and credibility of its financial reporting.
See More
Nio Expects Q4 2025 Profit for First Time
- Quarterly Profit Expectation: Nio anticipates an adjusted profit from operations in Q4 2025 ranging from approximately RMB 700 million to RMB 1.2 billion ($100.89 million), marking the first time the EV maker expects quarterly profitability, reflecting positive outcomes from sales volume growth, vehicle margin optimization, and cost reduction efforts.
- Record Deliveries: In Q4 2025, Nio delivered 124,807 vehicles, representing a 72% year-on-year increase and setting a new quarterly record, which not only boosts market confidence but also lays a foundation for future profitability.
- Analyst Ratings Optimistic: According to Koyfin, 16 out of 26 analysts covering Nio rate it as ‘buy’ or higher, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance, with an average price target of $6.64, suggesting over 30% upside potential from current trading levels.
- Investor Sentiment Soars: Following the profit alert, Nio's shares rallied 7% over two consecutive trading days, and on Stocktwits, retail sentiment shifted from ‘bullish’ to ‘extremely bullish’, highlighting strong market interest in Nio's profitability turning point.
See More
