Chewy Issues Upbeat Outlook After Q4 Earnings Report
- Earnings Highlights: Chewy reported a 0.5% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4, reaching $3.26 billion, which, while slightly below analyst expectations, reflects a stable customer base with active customers increasing by 4% to 21.3 million.
- Margin Expansion: The company's gross margin improved by 90 basis points to 29.4%, and adjusted EBITDA margins rose from 3.8% to 5%, leading to a 30.4% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $162.3 million, indicating enhanced operational efficiency.
- Future Guidance: Chewy anticipates full-year revenue between $13.6 billion and $13.75 billion, representing growth of 8% to 9%, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $900 million and over $930 million, reflecting a growth rate of 20% to 29%, showcasing confidence in future market conditions.
- Market Appeal: Despite a nearly 21% decline in stock price in 2026, Chewy's forward P/E ratio stands at just 17 times current-year estimates, indicating significant undervaluation for a high-growth company, suggesting substantial upside potential ahead.
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- Optimistic Financial Outlook: Chewy's guidance for fiscal 2026 projects full-year revenue between $13.6 billion and $13.75 billion, reflecting an 8% to 9% growth rate, which demonstrates the company's confidence in future growth despite the overall low growth in the pet industry.
- Steady Customer Growth: The number of active customers increased by 4% year-over-year to 21.3 million, while net sales per active customer rose by 2.2% to $591, indicating ongoing improvements in customer retention and sales efficiency, thereby enhancing market competitiveness.
- Margin Expansion: The company expects adjusted EBITDA margins to range between 6.6% and 6.8%, about 100 basis points higher than fiscal 2025, primarily driven by increased private brand penetration and the ramp-up of its new fulfillment center, further solidifying Chewy's profitability.
- Attractive Stock Valuation: Despite Chewy's stock being down nearly 21% in 2026, its forward P/E ratio stands at just 17 times current-year estimates, indicating a relatively undervalued investment opportunity, with potential for market recognition of its future growth prospects.
- Earnings Highlights: Chewy reported a 0.5% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4, reaching $3.26 billion, which, while slightly below analyst expectations, reflects a stable customer base with active customers increasing by 4% to 21.3 million.
- Margin Expansion: The company's gross margin improved by 90 basis points to 29.4%, and adjusted EBITDA margins rose from 3.8% to 5%, leading to a 30.4% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $162.3 million, indicating enhanced operational efficiency.
- Future Guidance: Chewy anticipates full-year revenue between $13.6 billion and $13.75 billion, representing growth of 8% to 9%, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $900 million and over $930 million, reflecting a growth rate of 20% to 29%, showcasing confidence in future market conditions.
- Market Appeal: Despite a nearly 21% decline in stock price in 2026, Chewy's forward P/E ratio stands at just 17 times current-year estimates, indicating significant undervaluation for a high-growth company, suggesting substantial upside potential ahead.

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Report Overview: Recent reports from investment and research firms provide insights into analysts' perspectives on various companies.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in these reports do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Barron’s.
Investment Services: Some report issuers may have existing or potential investment-banking relationships with the companies analyzed.
Purpose of Reports: The reports serve as a sampling of analyst thinking rather than definitive investment advice.
Chewy's Growth: Chewy's stock is experiencing significant growth, driven by its digital-first model and strong performance in the pet care industry, with a reported $3.26 billion in net revenue for the quarter, marking an 8.1% increase on an adjusted basis.
Market Position: The company consistently outperforms its peers, benefiting from increased customer engagement and sales, particularly in autoship sales, which represent a critical revenue stream tied to food and health care products.
Earnings and Margins: Chewy reported a 72% increase in net income and a 30.4% rise in adjusted EBITDA, although adjusted earnings per share fell slightly short of expectations, indicating mixed results in margin performance.
Future Outlook: Analysts maintain a moderate buy rating on Chewy's stock, forecasting a potential rebound with a long-term EPS growth rate of 10-20%, despite concerns about current valuation and market resistance levels.
- Price Target Upgrade: Barclays reiterated its overweight rating on Chewy, setting a price target of $48, indicating a nearly 80% upside from Thursday's close, which would bring Chewy back to trading levels not seen since June.
- Optimistic Sales Guidance: Although Chewy's fourth-quarter sales missed expectations, the strong full-year 2026 revenue guidance pleased investors, indicating the company's potential for recovery in the post-pandemic landscape.
- EBITDA Margin Expansion: Barclays analyst noted that Chewy delivered on expected EBITDA margin expansion in its full-year guidance, and despite diminished gross margin lift, there remains optimism for stronger incremental margins this year.
- AI Impact Assessment: Chewy quantified the impact of artificial intelligence on its business, with analysts noting flat year-over-year headcount, suggesting that the company is well-positioned to leverage new efficiencies while remaining resilient against AI disruption concerns.









