Casey's Anticipates 15%–17% EBITDA Growth for Fiscal 2026 Driven by Increased Inside Sales and Fuel Volumes
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 10 2025
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Source: SeekingAlpha
Financial Performance: Casey's General Stores reported a Q2 2026 diluted EPS of $5.53 and net income of $206 million, both reflecting a 14% increase from the previous year, with total revenue reaching $4.51 billion, a 14.2% rise driven by higher inside sales and fuel gallons sold.
Sales Growth: Inside same-store sales increased by 3.3% for the quarter, with prepared food and dispensed beverage sales up 4.8%, while the company expects fiscal 2026 EBITDA growth of 15% to 17% and same-store sales growth of 3% to 4%.
Operational Insights: Management highlighted strong execution in fuel strategy and effective merchandising, although they acknowledged a slight margin decline due to lower margins from CEFCO stores, which are expected to improve over time.
Market Outlook: Analysts expressed concerns about potential deceleration in EBITDA growth in the second half of the year, while management maintained confidence in their strategic execution and ongoing integration of acquisitions, despite consumer spending pressures.
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Analyst Views on CASY
Wall Street analysts forecast CASY stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CASY is 609.33 USD with a low forecast of 530.00 USD and a high forecast of 700.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 615.290
Low
530.00
Averages
609.33
High
700.00
Current: 615.290
Low
530.00
Averages
609.33
High
700.00
About CASY
Casey’s General Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries operate approximately 2,900 convenience stores in 19 states. It offers self-service fuel, a wide selection of grocery items and an array of freshly prepared food items. All convenience stores carry a selection of food items (which at most stores include freshly prepared foods, such as regular and breakfast pizza, donuts, hot breakfast items, and hot and cold sandwiches), beverages, tobacco and nicotine products, groceries, health and beauty aids, automotive products, and other non-food items. It offers a range of fuels, including E-10 gasoline, High Octane gasoline, Biodiesel, Winterized diesel, and Ethanol-free gasoline. It sells a range of tobacco products in-store, including e-cigarettes and vapor, chewing tobacco, nicotine pouches, and rolling papers and accessories. Its card services include Casey's Gift Cards, Casey's Visa Signature Card, and Casey's Business Mastercard & Casey's Business Advantage Card.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
BofA Initiates Coverage on Casey’s with $700 Price Target, Highlights Foodservice Growth
- Coverage Initiation: BofA Securities analyst Lisa K. Lewandowski initiated coverage on Casey’s General Stores with a Buy rating and a $700 price target, based on a 2027 EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 15.9 times, reflecting confidence in the company's future growth potential.
- Revenue Structure Optimization: The analyst expects Casey’s EBITDA to maintain an 8% to 10% growth rate in the medium term, primarily driven by its higher-margin foodservice mix and regional fuel sales performance, indicating a competitive edge in the convenience store market.
- Market Positioning Advantage: As the third-largest convenience store operator in the U.S., Casey’s rural footprint is seen as a competitive advantage in underserved food markets, with foodservice margins expected to expand following the conversion of CEFCO locations starting in 2026.
- Risks and Opportunities: While Murphy USA faces pressures from fuel and tobacco sales, the analyst notes its lean operations and value-focused pricing strategy provide a foundation for long-term support, while also cautioning about downside risks from oil price shocks and economic stress.
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