BTIG Initiates Coverage of Millrose Properties with Buy Rating and $35 Price Target
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 01 2025
0mins
In an industry initiation note on the homebuilding and real estate services sector, BTIG analyst Ryan Gilbert initiated coverage of Millrose Properties (MRP), which was recently spun off from Lennar (LEN), with a Buy rating and $35 price target. BTIG believes Millrose Properties can offer builders a "compelling rate both due to its cost of capital advantages and services via its technology platform," and feels the stock is "cheap relative to the opportunity."
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Analyst Views on LEN
Wall Street analysts forecast LEN stock price to fall
13 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
7 Hold
6 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 120.990
Low
80.00
Averages
101.18
High
122.00
Current: 120.990
Low
80.00
Averages
101.18
High
122.00
About LEN
Lennar Corporation is a homebuilder and an originator of residential and commercial mortgage loans. The Company is also a provider of title insurance and closing services, and a developer of multifamily rental properties. The Company's segments include Homebuilding East, Homebuilding Central, Homebuilding Texas, Homebuilding West, Financial Services, Multifamily, and Lennar others. Its Homebuilding segments primarily include the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes, as well as the purchase, development and sale of residential land directly and through its unconsolidated entities. The Company's Financial Services segment primarily provides mortgage financing, title and closing services primarily for buyers of its homes, as well as property and casualty insurance. The Company’s Multifamily segment is involved in the development, construction and property management of multifamily rental properties. its Lennar Other segment includes fund investments.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Valuation Analysis: Lennar's stock is trading at less than 17 times expected earnings for 2026, with projected earnings per share of $8.82, and although the market remains cautious about its outlook, the current price is considered relatively cheap for long-term investment.
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- Industry Impact: Should the investigation proceed, it could have far-reaching implications for the entire homebuilding sector, especially in the current market environment where companies may face stricter compliance requirements, thereby affecting profitability.
- Future Developments Monitoring: As the investigation could commence in the coming weeks, investors need to closely monitor related developments to assess the long-term impacts on the market and individual stocks, particularly in the context of the recovering real estate market.
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- Housing Shortage: The U.S. faces a dire shortage of 2 to 8 million homes, and despite the high prices of newly constructed and existing homes, the demand for homeownership remains strong, indicating unmet market needs.
- Lennar Stock Performance: Lennar (LEN) shares are currently trading 36% below their 2024 peak, and while a slight revenue dip is expected in 2025, forecasts predict over 5% revenue growth in 2027, reflecting market confidence in its future.
- Valuation Analysis: Lennar's stock is trading at less than 17 times expected earnings for 2026, with projected earnings per share of $8.82, and although the market remains cautious about its outlook, the current price is considered relatively cheap for long-term investment.
- Potential Policy Impact: Discussions around a government-backed rent-to-own program for first-time buyers are gaining traction, with Lennar suggested as a leading proponent, which could further drive market demand and enhance its stock value.
See More
U.S. Housing Shortage and Investment Opportunities
- Housing Shortage Reality: According to Goldman Sachs, the U.S. faces a shortage of 3 to 4 million homes, significantly exceeding the normal annual construction of 1.5 million, leading to fierce competition among buyers and rising prices, thus providing sustained market opportunities for major homebuilders.
- Growth Potential of LGI Homes: LGI Homes is projected to achieve an 11% sales growth this year and 6% next year, reaching $2 billion in sales by 2027, showcasing its ability to stand out in a competitive market, particularly among first-time homebuyers.
- Market Leadership of D.R. Horton: As the largest homebuilder in the U.S., D.R. Horton reported $34.3 billion in sales last year, with expectations to grow sales to nearly $40 billion in the coming years, and its reasonable 10x P/E ratio offers a compelling value proposition for investors.
- Income Model of Invitation Homes: Invitation Homes owns and manages over 100,000 homes, with projected sales growth of only 3%, but its 4.34% dividend yield significantly surpasses the market average, attracting more income-focused investors.
See More
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- Retail Sales Weakness: US December retail sales were unchanged month-over-month, falling short of the +0.4% expectation, indicating weakness in consumer spending that could lead to a downward revision in Q4 GDP, thereby impacting market confidence and economic growth outlook.
- Employment Cost Index Decline: The US Q4 employment cost index rose by +0.7% quarter-over-quarter, below the expected +0.8%, marking the smallest increase in 4.5 years, suggesting easing labor cost pressures that may influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
- Mixed Market Performance: The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new all-time high, closing up +0.10%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices fell by -0.33% and -0.56%, respectively, reflecting divergent market sentiment and uncertainty.
- Focus on Upcoming Economic Data: The market will closely monitor upcoming economic data, including January nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate, which are expected to significantly influence future monetary policy and market trends.
See More
Trump Administration Weighs Antitrust Probe into Homebuilders
- Antitrust Investigation: The Trump administration is considering an antitrust probe into homebuilders, causing stocks of major firms like DR Horton and Lennar to drop by 1.8%, indicating market concerns over potential regulatory impacts on profitability.
- Information Flow Review: The investigation may focus on the flow of information with the trade group Leading Builders of America, amid worries that member companies could use this information to limit new home supply or coordinate pricing, potentially harming market competition.
- Housing Affordability Issues: With housing affordability at record lows, builders are exploring avenues for cooperation with the White House, including a proposed
See More
Trump Administration Considers Antitrust Probe into Homebuilders
- Antitrust Investigation Potential: The Trump administration is considering an antitrust investigation into U.S. homebuilders, although no final decision has been made, raising concerns about the industry's outlook and potentially impacting investor confidence.
- Stock Price Fluctuations: Following this news, shares of Lennar Corp. (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI) fell approximately 2%, reflecting the market's sensitivity to potential regulatory risks, which could lead to short-term capital outflows.
- Industry Impact: Should the investigation proceed, it could have far-reaching implications for the entire homebuilding sector, especially in the current market environment where companies may face stricter compliance requirements, thereby affecting profitability.
- Future Developments Monitoring: As the investigation could commence in the coming weeks, investors need to closely monitor related developments to assess the long-term impacts on the market and individual stocks, particularly in the context of the recovering real estate market.
See More
KB Home Declines 0.8%, PulteGroup Decreases 1.1%, Hovnanian Enterprises Drops 0.5%
Home Sales Decline: Home sales have decreased by 0.8%, indicating a slowdown in the housing market.
PulteGroup Performance: PulteGroup's stock has fallen by 1.1%, reflecting challenges in the construction and real estate sector.
Hovnanian Enterprises Drop: Hovnanian Enterprises has experienced a decline of 0.5%, suggesting potential issues within the company or market conditions.
Market Trends: Overall, the trends indicate a cautious outlook for the housing and construction industries, with several companies reporting declines.
See More
