Brokers Anticipate 77% Drop in BABA-W 2FQ Adjusted Net Profit; Emphasis on Instant Retail, Cloud, and AI Insights
Earnings Forecast: Alibaba is expected to announce its second fiscal quarter results for FY2026 on November 25, 2025, with non-GAAP net profit forecasts ranging from RMB8.238 billion to RMB11.2 billion, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 69.3-77.4%.
Revenue Expectations: Revenue for the same quarter is projected to be between RMB236.229 billion and RMB247.652 billion, indicating a slight year-over-year drop of 0.1% to a rise of 4.7%, with a median estimate of RMB242.39 billion.
EBITA Projections: Analysts predict Alibaba's EBITA for the second quarter of FY2026 will range from RMB5.901 billion to RMB8.205 billion, marking a drastic year-over-year decrease of 79.8-85.5%.
Market Focus: Investors are particularly interested in Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth and the competitive landscape in food delivery and quick commerce, as well as the company's guidance on business trends and capital expenditures.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on 09988
About the author
HKD4.7B Net Inflow to TRACKER FUND from Southbound Trading
Southbound Trading Inflows: TRACKER FUND (02800.HK) saw significant net inflows of HKD4.7 billion, while CNOOC (00883.HK) and SMIC (00981.HK) also experienced positive trading activity.
Southbound Trading Outflows: TENCENT (00700.HK) and BABA-W (09988.HK) faced notable net outflows of HKD479.7 million and HKD429.4 million, respectively, with high short selling ratios.
Trading Activity Overview: TRACKER FUND was the most active stock in both Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, while TENCENT and BABA-W had the highest net outflows in their respective categories.
Market Summary: Overall, Southbound Trading net outflow totaled HKD0, accounting for 46.85% of the total transaction amount of HKD113.47 billion.
Short Selling Activity Reaches $46.9B, Representing 30.5% of Total Eligible Securities Turnover at Market Close
Short Selling Turnover: The short selling turnover in the Hong Kong market reached $46.9 billion, accounting for 30.5% of the eligible securities turnover, a significant increase from 17.2% on the previous trading day.
Top Short Selling Stocks: The top five stocks with the highest short selling amounts include TRACKER FUND (02800.HK) at $8.64 billion (77.3% ratio), CSOP HS TECH (03033.HK) at $1.88 billion (51.4% ratio), TENCENT (00700.HK) at $1.77 billion (22.3% ratio), BABA-W (09988.HK) at $1.58 billion (27.5% ratio), and HSCEI ETF (02828.HK) at $1.36 billion (31.3% ratio).
Market Performance: The TRACKER FUND experienced a slight decrease of 0.230%, while other stocks like TENCENT and BABA-W also saw declines in their share prices.
Data Delay Notice: It is noted that the stock quotes for HK are delayed by at least 15 minutes, and the short selling data is as of March 12, 2026, at 16:25.
Brokers Predict BABA-W's Adjusted Net Profit Fell Over 43% Year-Over-Year Last Quarter; Focus on AI, Instant Retail Investment, and T-Head Spin-off Plan in Investor Discussions
Earnings Forecast: BABA-W is expected to report a non-GAAP net profit for 3QFY26 between RMB25.099 billion and RMB31.858 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 37.6-50.8% from RMB51.066 billion in the same quarter last year.
Investor Focus: Investors are particularly interested in BABA-W's investments in AI and instant retail, the performance of its cloud business, and the potential spin-off of its chipmaking unit, T-Head, for independent listing.
Short Selling Activity Reaches $21.1B, Representing 19.9% of Eligible Securities Turnover by Midday
Short Selling Turnover: The short selling turnover in the Hong Kong market reached $21.1 billion at midday, accounting for 19.9% of the eligible securities turnover, an increase from 17.2% on the previous trading day.
Top Short Selling Shares: The top five shares with the highest short selling amounts include TRACKER FUND, TENCENT, CSOP HS TECH, BABA-W, and CNOOC, with varying short selling ratios and turnover amounts.
TRACKER FUND Performance: TRACKER FUND (02800.HK) had the highest short selling amount at $1.43 billion, with a short selling ratio of 22.1%.
CSOP HS TECH Highlights: CSOP HS TECH (03033.HK) recorded the highest short selling ratio at 32.7%, with a turnover of $760.4 million.
G Sachs: OpenClaw Demonstrates AI Application Potential; Positive Outlook on AI Infrastructure Supply Chain Reconfirmed
OpenClaw's Potential: Goldman Sachs highlights the rapid growth of the open-source AI agent OpenClaw (Lobster), emphasizing its ability to perform practical tasks and its potential to drive demand in the AI infrastructure supply chain.
Beneficiaries of AI Growth: The report identifies several companies expected to benefit from the anticipated surge in semiconductor and hardware demand, including domestic GPU and ASIC firms like CAMBRICON and METAX, as well as server and switch OEMs like IEIT.
Cooling and Data Center Companies: Goldman Sachs also points to cooling equipment and data center companies, such as ENVICOOL and GDS-SW, as potential beneficiaries of the growing AI market.
Short Selling Insights: The report provides insights into short selling activities across various companies, indicating significant short selling ratios for firms like BABA-W and TENCENT, reflecting market sentiment regarding their performance amidst the AI boom.
HKD2.4B Net Outflow from TENCENT in Southbound Trading
Southbound Trading Inflows and Outflows: CNOOC saw a significant net inflow of HKD1 billion, while Tencent experienced a notable outflow of HKD2.4 billion, indicating contrasting investor sentiment towards these stocks.
Short Selling Activity: Tencent had the highest short selling amount at $4.95 billion with a ratio of 20.891%, while Xiaomi also faced substantial short selling at $1.19 billion and a ratio of 35.575%.
Most Active Stocks: In the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Xiaomi was the most active stock with a net inflow of HKD402.9 million, while Tencent led in outflows. In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, CNOOC had the highest inflow of HKD1.2 billion, with Tencent again showing the highest outflow.
Overall Trading Summary: The total Southbound Trading net outflow was HKD0, accounting for 45.59% of the total transaction amount of HKD116.03 billion, reflecting a balanced trading environment despite individual stock fluctuations.
HKD4.7B Net Inflow to TRACKER FUND from Southbound Trading
Southbound Trading Inflows: TRACKER FUND (02800.HK) saw significant net inflows of HKD4.7 billion, while CNOOC (00883.HK) and SMIC (00981.HK) also experienced positive trading activity.
Southbound Trading Outflows: TENCENT (00700.HK) and BABA-W (09988.HK) faced notable net outflows of HKD479.7 million and HKD429.4 million, respectively, with high short selling ratios.
Trading Activity Overview: TRACKER FUND was the most active stock in both Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, while TENCENT and BABA-W had the highest net outflows in their respective categories.
Market Summary: Overall, Southbound Trading net outflow totaled HKD0, accounting for 46.85% of the total transaction amount of HKD113.47 billion.
Short Selling Activity Reaches $46.9B, Representing 30.5% of Total Eligible Securities Turnover at Market Close
Short Selling Turnover: The short selling turnover in the Hong Kong market reached $46.9 billion, accounting for 30.5% of the eligible securities turnover, a significant increase from 17.2% on the previous trading day.
Top Short Selling Stocks: The top five stocks with the highest short selling amounts include TRACKER FUND (02800.HK) at $8.64 billion (77.3% ratio), CSOP HS TECH (03033.HK) at $1.88 billion (51.4% ratio), TENCENT (00700.HK) at $1.77 billion (22.3% ratio), BABA-W (09988.HK) at $1.58 billion (27.5% ratio), and HSCEI ETF (02828.HK) at $1.36 billion (31.3% ratio).
Market Performance: The TRACKER FUND experienced a slight decrease of 0.230%, while other stocks like TENCENT and BABA-W also saw declines in their share prices.
Data Delay Notice: It is noted that the stock quotes for HK are delayed by at least 15 minutes, and the short selling data is as of March 12, 2026, at 16:25.
Brokers Predict BABA-W's Adjusted Net Profit Fell Over 43% Year-Over-Year Last Quarter; Focus on AI, Instant Retail Investment, and T-Head Spin-off Plan in Investor Discussions
Earnings Forecast: BABA-W is expected to report a non-GAAP net profit for 3QFY26 between RMB25.099 billion and RMB31.858 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 37.6-50.8% from RMB51.066 billion in the same quarter last year.
Investor Focus: Investors are particularly interested in BABA-W's investments in AI and instant retail, the performance of its cloud business, and the potential spin-off of its chipmaking unit, T-Head, for independent listing.
Short Selling Activity Reaches $21.1B, Representing 19.9% of Eligible Securities Turnover by Midday
Short Selling Turnover: The short selling turnover in the Hong Kong market reached $21.1 billion at midday, accounting for 19.9% of the eligible securities turnover, an increase from 17.2% on the previous trading day.
Top Short Selling Shares: The top five shares with the highest short selling amounts include TRACKER FUND, TENCENT, CSOP HS TECH, BABA-W, and CNOOC, with varying short selling ratios and turnover amounts.
TRACKER FUND Performance: TRACKER FUND (02800.HK) had the highest short selling amount at $1.43 billion, with a short selling ratio of 22.1%.
CSOP HS TECH Highlights: CSOP HS TECH (03033.HK) recorded the highest short selling ratio at 32.7%, with a turnover of $760.4 million.
G Sachs: OpenClaw Demonstrates AI Application Potential; Positive Outlook on AI Infrastructure Supply Chain Reconfirmed
OpenClaw's Potential: Goldman Sachs highlights the rapid growth of the open-source AI agent OpenClaw (Lobster), emphasizing its ability to perform practical tasks and its potential to drive demand in the AI infrastructure supply chain.
Beneficiaries of AI Growth: The report identifies several companies expected to benefit from the anticipated surge in semiconductor and hardware demand, including domestic GPU and ASIC firms like CAMBRICON and METAX, as well as server and switch OEMs like IEIT.
Cooling and Data Center Companies: Goldman Sachs also points to cooling equipment and data center companies, such as ENVICOOL and GDS-SW, as potential beneficiaries of the growing AI market.
Short Selling Insights: The report provides insights into short selling activities across various companies, indicating significant short selling ratios for firms like BABA-W and TENCENT, reflecting market sentiment regarding their performance amidst the AI boom.
HKD2.4B Net Outflow from TENCENT in Southbound Trading
Southbound Trading Inflows and Outflows: CNOOC saw a significant net inflow of HKD1 billion, while Tencent experienced a notable outflow of HKD2.4 billion, indicating contrasting investor sentiment towards these stocks.
Short Selling Activity: Tencent had the highest short selling amount at $4.95 billion with a ratio of 20.891%, while Xiaomi also faced substantial short selling at $1.19 billion and a ratio of 35.575%.
Most Active Stocks: In the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Xiaomi was the most active stock with a net inflow of HKD402.9 million, while Tencent led in outflows. In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, CNOOC had the highest inflow of HKD1.2 billion, with Tencent again showing the highest outflow.
Overall Trading Summary: The total Southbound Trading net outflow was HKD0, accounting for 45.59% of the total transaction amount of HKD116.03 billion, reflecting a balanced trading environment despite individual stock fluctuations.
