BHP Reports 3% Dip in YTD March FY26 Copper Output
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 22 2026
0mins
Should l Buy BHP?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Copper Production Decline: BHP's copper output for the year-to-date ending March FY26 fell to approximately 1.46 million tonnes, marking a 3% decline compared to FY25, primarily due to reduced production at the Escondida and Spence deposits, which faced planned lower grades and complex ore characteristics affecting processing and recovery rates.
- Iron Ore Production Increase: Iron ore production rose to 196.6 million tonnes, a 2% increase from the previous year, driven by record output at Western Australia Iron Ore, despite some weather-related disruptions impacting operations.
- Coal Production Slightly Up: Steelmaking coal production at BHP Mitsubishi Alliance increased by 1% to 13 million tonnes, while energy coal production in New South Wales surged by 11% to 12.2 million tonnes, supported by improved operational performance and favorable mining conditions.
- Leadership Transition: BHP announced a leadership transition with Brandon Craig set to succeed Mike Henry as CEO on July 1, 2026, with Henry noting the company's strong performance over the past nine months, including record material mined and throughput at Escondida and WAIO.
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Analyst Views on BHP
Wall Street analysts forecast BHP stock price to fall
3 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 82.550
Low
49.50
Averages
56.50
High
68.00
Current: 82.550
Low
49.50
Averages
56.50
High
68.00
About BHP
BHP Group Limited is an Australia-based resources company. The Company is a producer of commodities, including iron ore, copper, nickel, potash and metallurgical (steelmaking) coal. It is focused on offering a range of resources, which provides copper for renewable energy; nickel for electric vehicles; potash for sustainable farming, and iron ore and metallurgical coal for the steel needed for global infrastructure and the energy transition. Its segments include Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal. Its Copper segment is engaged in mining of copper, silver, zinc, molybdenum, uranium, and gold. Its Iron Ore segment is engaged in mining of iron ore. Its Coal segment is engaged in mining of metallurgical coal and energy coal. The Company is also focused on operating Olympic Dam, Prominent Hill, and Carrapateena underground copper-gold mines in South Australia. Its operations are situated in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Inventory Levels: As of April 22, Jimblebar fines stocks at 15 major Chinese ports reached 8.69 million tons, a staggering 382% increase from late September, indicating a rebound in demand for BHP products that may encourage steel producers to increase purchases.
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BHP Reports 3% Dip in YTD March FY26 Copper Output
- Copper Production Decline: BHP's copper output for the year-to-date ending March FY26 fell to approximately 1.46 million tonnes, marking a 3% decline compared to FY25, primarily due to reduced production at the Escondida and Spence deposits, which faced planned lower grades and complex ore characteristics affecting processing and recovery rates.
- Iron Ore Production Increase: Iron ore production rose to 196.6 million tonnes, a 2% increase from the previous year, driven by record output at Western Australia Iron Ore, despite some weather-related disruptions impacting operations.
- Coal Production Slightly Up: Steelmaking coal production at BHP Mitsubishi Alliance increased by 1% to 13 million tonnes, while energy coal production in New South Wales surged by 11% to 12.2 million tonnes, supported by improved operational performance and favorable mining conditions.
- Leadership Transition: BHP announced a leadership transition with Brandon Craig set to succeed Mike Henry as CEO on July 1, 2026, with Henry noting the company's strong performance over the past nine months, including record material mined and throughput at Escondida and WAIO.
See More
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- Negotiation Context: During the negotiations, China restricted purchases of certain BHP ore types to push for better terms and greater pricing control, forcing BHP to redirect shipments to alternative Southeast Asian markets.
- Agreement Details: While BHP confirmed the agreement, it did not disclose pricing mechanisms, contract duration, or other terms; however, reports suggest the deal could extend through 2027 and may involve partial settlement in yuan, reflecting China's broader strategy to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in commodity trade.
- Strategic Implications: This agreement not only alleviates pricing pressure on BHP but also signifies China's broader efforts to decrease dollar dependency in commodity trading, potentially laying the groundwork for future trade relations.
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- Tech Stocks Lead: Nvidia emerged as a market leader, driving a new wave of buying activity, reflecting strong investor confidence in its future growth potential, which may further enhance its market valuation.
- Arm Earnings Impact: Arm's earnings performance has become a focal point for the market, expected to positively influence related tech stocks and potentially trigger M&A activity within the industry, thereby invigorating market dynamics.
- Improved Investor Sentiment: As optimism about economic recovery grows, investors may reassess their allocations to risk assets, propelling the overall market upward and further solidifying the bullish trend in equities.
See More
China Lifts Ban on BHP Iron Ore Purchases
- Ban Lifted: China's state iron ore buyer has lifted the ban on certain BHP iron ore products, ending months of procurement freeze, which signifies a thaw in China-Australia trade relations and is expected to boost market activity.
- Inventory Levels: As of April 22, Jimblebar fines stocks at 15 major Chinese ports reached 8.69 million tons, a staggering 382% increase from late September, indicating a rebound in demand for BHP products that may encourage steel producers to increase purchases.
- Successful Contract Negotiation: BHP's contract negotiation with China Mineral Resources Group has concluded successfully, allowing steel producers to buy and take delivery of previously frozen BHP ore products upon submitting a report, further enhancing market liquidity.
- Market Reaction: Although the iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by 1% to 779.5 yuan/ton (approximately $114.18), the news of the ban lift may have a positive long-term impact on prices, attracting more investor interest in the iron ore market.
See More
BHP GROUP: ARGUS RESEARCH INCREASES TARGET PRICE FROM $90 TO $95
- BHP Group Update: BHP Group has raised its target price for Argus to $95 from $90.
- Market Implications: This adjustment reflects a positive outlook for Argus in the market.
See More
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- Copper Production Decline: BHP's latest quarterly operational review revealed a Q3 copper output of 476.8K tons, reflecting a 3% Q/Q drop and a 7% Y/Y decline, primarily due to underperformance at the Escondida and Pampa Norte operations in Chile, although the company now expects to reach the upper end of its annual copper production guidance of 1.9M-2M tons.
- Iron Ore Output Growth: In the same quarter, iron ore production was reported at 69.8M tons, showing a 10% Q/Q decline but a 2% Y/Y increase, indicating that despite a 10% drop, the iron ore division remains a key profit driver following the confirmation of a long-awaited supply deal with China.
- Cost Guidance Adjustment: BHP has lowered its unit cost guidance for Escondida from $1.20-$1.50/lb to $1.00-$1.20/lb, reflecting increased contributions from by-product credits and strong operational performance, which is expected to enhance the company's profitability.
- Positive Market Reaction: Despite copper production falling short of market expectations, BHP's shares indicated a 2.6% rise in pre-market trading, demonstrating investor confidence in the company's long-term prospects, particularly with iron ore prices exceeding expectations.
See More
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- Copper Production Decline: BHP's copper output for the year-to-date ending March FY26 fell to approximately 1.46 million tonnes, marking a 3% decline compared to FY25, primarily due to reduced production at the Escondida and Spence deposits, which faced planned lower grades and complex ore characteristics affecting processing and recovery rates.
- Iron Ore Production Increase: Iron ore production rose to 196.6 million tonnes, a 2% increase from the previous year, driven by record output at Western Australia Iron Ore, despite some weather-related disruptions impacting operations.
- Coal Production Slightly Up: Steelmaking coal production at BHP Mitsubishi Alliance increased by 1% to 13 million tonnes, while energy coal production in New South Wales surged by 11% to 12.2 million tonnes, supported by improved operational performance and favorable mining conditions.
- Leadership Transition: BHP announced a leadership transition with Brandon Craig set to succeed Mike Henry as CEO on July 1, 2026, with Henry noting the company's strong performance over the past nine months, including record material mined and throughput at Escondida and WAIO.
See More
BHP Finalizes Iron Ore Supply Agreement with China Mineral Resources Group
- Agreement Finalized: BHP has concluded an iron ore supply agreement with China's state-backed China Mineral Resources Group, ending months of tense negotiations that highlighted trade flow and pricing disputes.
- Negotiation Context: During the negotiations, China restricted purchases of certain BHP ore types to push for better terms and greater pricing control, forcing BHP to redirect shipments to alternative Southeast Asian markets.
- Agreement Details: While BHP confirmed the agreement, it did not disclose pricing mechanisms, contract duration, or other terms; however, reports suggest the deal could extend through 2027 and may involve partial settlement in yuan, reflecting China's broader strategy to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in commodity trade.
- Strategic Implications: This agreement not only alleviates pricing pressure on BHP but also signifies China's broader efforts to decrease dollar dependency in commodity trading, potentially laying the groundwork for future trade relations.
See More
