Carnival Reports Non-GAAP EPS of $0.34, Exceeding Estimates by $0.09; Revenue of $6.33B Falls Short by $40M
Q4 Financial Performance: Carnival reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.34, beating expectations by $0.09, while revenue of $6.33 billion increased by 6.6% year-over-year but missed estimates by $40 million.
Record Customer Deposits: The company achieved record customer deposits of $7.2 billion, surpassing the previous fourth quarter record as of November 30, 2024.
2026 Financial Outlook: For the full year 2026, Carnival anticipates a 12% increase in adjusted net income and a 2.5% rise in net yields, despite less than 1% capacity growth.
Q1 2026 Expectations: In the first quarter of 2026, Carnival expects net yields to increase by approximately 1.6% compared to 2025, with adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD projected to rise by about 5.9% compared to Q1 2025.
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- Market Conditions: Crude prices are rising while stock prices are falling, creating uncertainty for investors.
- Investment Strategy: Dividend stocks are suggested as a potential safe haven for investors looking to navigate the current market volatility.
- Crude Prices and Market Impact: Crude prices are rising significantly, leading to a decline in stock values, prompting investors to seek safer investment options.
- Stock Sensitivity to Oil Shocks: Not all stocks react the same way to fluctuations in oil prices, indicating that some may offer more stability during these market changes.
- Strong Operating Momentum: Royal Caribbean achieved over $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2025, marking a 17.6% year-over-year increase, driven by robust demand for vacation experiences, with expectations for slightly below $8 billion in 2026 EBITDA, reflecting about 13% growth.
- Profitability Enhancement: The company anticipates adjusted earnings per share in the range of $17.70 to $18.10 for 2026, indicating approximately 14% growth compared to 2025 levels, showcasing effective strategies in maintaining pricing power and expanding margins.
- Positive Booking Trends: Management noted that roughly two-thirds of the 2026 inventory has already been booked at higher rates, with booked load factors remaining within historical ranges, indicating strong market demand and consumer confidence.
- Vacation Product Expansion: Royal Caribbean is enhancing its vacation offerings through new ships, exclusive destinations, and technology investments, which are expected to support its growth strategy and further improve market competitiveness and guest experiences.
- Quarterly Loss Overview: Target Hospitality reported a quarterly loss of $0.15 per share, exceeding the Zacks consensus estimate of a $0.10 loss, and a stark contrast to last year's earnings of $0.12 per share, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability.
- Revenue Performance: The company posted revenues of $89.78 million for the quarter, surpassing the Zacks consensus estimate by 5.37%, and reflecting a 7.5% increase from last year's $83.69 million, showcasing strong revenue growth despite the earnings miss.
- Market Performance Analysis: Since the beginning of the year, Target Hospitality's shares have declined by approximately 0.4%, outperforming the S&P 500's 0.9% drop, indicating relative resilience in market volatility, but future trends will depend heavily on management's commentary during the earnings call.
- Future Outlook: Currently rated as a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), the consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarters stands at -$0.08 on revenues of $60.5 million, reflecting cautious sentiment regarding the company's future profitability, especially given the industry's ranking in the bottom 29%.
- Cruise Overview: Princess Cruises announces its 2028 World Cruise set to depart on January 3, 2028, featuring a 115-day journey to 49 destinations across 24 countries and five continents, showcasing 39 UNESCO World Heritage Sites, significantly enriching the global exploration experience for travelers.
- Unique Port Call: The cruise will make its maiden call at Mossel Bay, South Africa, allowing guests to enjoy an overnight stay in Cape Town, enhancing the appeal of Princess Cruises in the global market by offering immersive cultural experiences in stunning natural settings.
- Expanded Shore Experiences: The new 'More Ashore' experiences include overnight stays in Cape Town and Auckland, along with 10 late-night stays in cities like Barcelona and Casablanca, designed to provide guests with deeper cultural connections and vibrant nightlife experiences at each destination.
- Culinary and Cultural Offerings: Princess Cruises emphasizes exceptional culinary experiences with menus inspired by port destinations, ensuring that guests not only enjoy exquisite dining but also gain insights into the culture and history of each location, thereby enhancing the overall value of the cruise experience.
- Cruise Stock Declines: Since the outbreak of the Middle East war, Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) has seen a 21% drop in stock price, while Carnival Corporation (CCL) has plummeted 23%, reflecting a pessimistic market sentiment towards the cruise industry.
- Rising Fuel Costs: Brent crude oil prices have surged by approximately $27 since before the war, marking a 38% increase, with cruise lines facing daily fuel costs exceeding $100,000, which directly impacts profitability, particularly for Carnival, which does not hedge fuel purchases.
- Softening Demand Expectations: Geopolitical crises have led to the cancellation of many cruises on Middle Eastern and Mediterranean routes, with analysts predicting a further decline in cruise booking demand, hindering industry recovery.
- Caution for Investors: Analysts recommend that investors avoid airline and cruise stocks until there is clarity regarding the war, as the current market volatility presents significant uncertainty.











