Apple's iPhone Sell-in to China Declines 19% YoY
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Sales Decline: According to UBS, Apple's iPhone sell-in numbers to China fell 19% year-over-year in May, indicating that while shipment timing can be volatile month-to-month, the weakening sales momentum has a mildly negative impact on the company's performance.
- Supply Chain Challenges: UBS analysts noted that the year-over-year decline in iPhone sales suggests potential supply chain headwinds that were expected to be largely resolved by the end of the March quarter, thereby affecting Apple's performance in the Chinese market.
- Quarterly Outlook: UBS estimates that iPhone unit sell-in to China is down about 10% for the first two months of the June quarter, and given that June typically sees a seasonal sales downturn, the outlook for iPhone sales in China appears less optimistic.
- Stock Price Reaction: Apple's shares fell 5.5% on Thursday due to the company raising starting prices on many devices, including the MacBook Neo, amid unprecedented memory shortages, although iPhones were not included in the price hikes.
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Analyst Views on AAPL
Wall Street analysts forecast AAPL stock price to rise
27 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 293.080
Low
239.00
Averages
306.89
High
350.00
Current: 293.080
Low
239.00
Averages
306.89
High
350.00
About AAPL
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. Its product categories include iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home and Accessories. Its services include advertising, AppleCare, cloud services, digital content, and payment services. The Company operates various platforms, including the App Store, that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games and podcasts. It also offers digital content through subscription-based services, including Apple Arcade, Apple Fitness+, Apple Music, Apple News+, and Apple TV+. Its wearables include smartwatches, wireless headphones, and spatial computers. Its products include iPhone 16 Pro, iPhone 16, iPhone 15, iPhone 14, iPhone SE, MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio, Mac Pro, iPad Pro, iPad Air, AirPods, AirPods Pro, AirPods Max, Apple TV, Apple Vision Pro and others.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- App Store Revenue Growth: According to Morgan Stanley's data, Apple's App Store net revenue growth is at 2.4% year-over-year as of June 22, reflecting an 80bps deceleration from May, which could lead to a downward adjustment of approximately $130 million in Services revenue growth expectations.
- Services Segment Performance: Despite the slowdown in App Store growth, Apple's overall Services segment remains robust, with revenue growth rates sustained at 14-16% over the past three quarters, significantly exceeding the long-term expectation of 11-14%, indicating strong demand for services like iCloud and AppleCare.
- iPhone Production Forecast: Morgan Stanley forecasts 54 million iPhone builds in Q3 2026, suggesting flat or slightly declining production year-over-year for the second half of 2026, which aligns with expectations following a 12% increase in the first half of the year.
- iPhone 18 Pricing Strategy: The iPhone 18 family is expected to be priced about $100 higher than the iPhone 17, which Morgan Stanley believes may impact consumer demand but could also boost Apple's overall earnings in the short term.
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- Price Increases: Apple has raised the starting price of the MacBook Neo from $599 to $699 and the iPad Pro from $999 to $1,199, indicating significant cost pressures due to memory shortages that may affect consumer purchasing decisions.
- Multiple Product Adjustments: In addition to the MacBook Neo and iPad Pro, prices for the iPad Air, MacBook Pro, HomePod, HomePod mini, and Apple TV have also increased, reflecting Apple's struggle to cope with surging demand for memory and storage chips amid ongoing supply constraints.
- Market Reaction: Apple's shares fell 0.7% in premarket trading, indicating investor concerns over the price hikes, especially with the expectation that the upcoming iPhone lineup may also see price increases, leading to cautious market sentiment.
- CEO Statement: CEO Tim Cook stated in an interview that despite efforts to mitigate cost pressures, price increases have become unavoidable due to memory shortages, which could impact the company's long-term profitability.
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- M6 Chip Release Plans: Apple is expected to release the base model M6 chip this year but will skip higher-end M6 chips, opting instead to focus on the M7 chip, indicating a strategic pivot towards the AI market.
- M7 Chip Features: The M7 chip is designed to better handle the growing demand for on-device AI tasks and could be introduced as early as next year, potentially enhancing Apple's competitive edge in the AI sector.
- M5 Ultra Chip Release: Despite the adjustments to the M6 chip plans, the M5 Ultra chip within the M5 line is still set to be released later this year, continuing to support Apple's high-end Mac product lineup.
- Stock Price Impact: Apple's shares fell over 6% on Thursday following the announcement of price hikes on nearly all products, reflecting market concerns regarding its pricing strategy amid ongoing memory shortages.
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- Chipmaker Surge: US stocks rose today, led by Micron Technology's forecast of $50 billion in Q4 revenue, significantly above the $43.24 billion consensus, resulting in an 11% stock price increase and bolstering the bullish case for AI trades.
- Positive Economic Indicators: US economic data revealed an upward revision of Q1 GDP to 2.1%, surpassing the expected 1.6%, while weekly initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 215,000, indicating a robust labor market that enhances market confidence.
- Improved Inflation Expectations: The May core PCE price index rose 3.4% year-over-year, aligning with expectations, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to a 6-week low of 4.36%, providing support for stocks and alleviating investor concerns about rate hikes.
- Apple's Stock Decline: Despite overall market gains, Apple's stock fell over 5% after raising prices on Macs and iPads to offset memory chip shortages, which limited the broader market's upward momentum.
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- Price Increase Range: Apple has announced price hikes for its MacBook and iPad lineup, ranging from $100 to $300, marking the first formal move to pass increased memory and storage costs onto consumers, which is likely to negatively impact sales.
- Surge in Component Costs: According to Counterpoint Research, memory and storage prices have quadrupled over the past three quarters, with CEO Tim Cook describing it as a 'hundred-year flood,' indicating that Apple may need to continue raising prices in the future.
- iPhone Price Expectations: Counterpoint estimates that rising component costs could add approximately $200 to the cost of each iPhone, with expected price increases of $150 to $200 across the lineup, further influencing consumer purchasing decisions.
- Market Competitive Pressure: IDC forecasts that all new iPhone models will feature 12GB of RAM to support more Apple Intelligence functionalities, while 54% of iPhones shipped since 2022 will not support the full new Siri experience, providing Apple with a rationale to justify higher prices based on enhanced hardware capabilities.
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- Micron's Strong Performance: Micron reported better-than-expected earnings, leading to a stock price increase of over 13%, which not only enhances its competitive position in the memory and storage sector but also positively impacts peers like Sandisk and Western Digital.
- Apple's Stock Decline: Apple raised prices on several MacBook and iPad models due to rising memory costs, resulting in a nearly 5% drop in its stock price, raising concerns about potential demand destruction and negatively affecting overall tech stock performance.
- Intel's Neutral Rating: Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on Intel with a neutral rating and a $150 price target, implying about 14% upside, although Intel has outperformed competitors like Nvidia and AMD among large-cap chipmakers in recent weeks.
- FedEx Freight's First Earnings: FedEx Freight's first earnings report as an independent company follows the earlier disclosure of better-than-expected numbers, prompting investors to focus on management's insights regarding freight demand and profit margin improvement plans to identify potential investment opportunities.
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