APA Corp. and CNX Resources Downgraded by Barclays with Price Targets of $24 and $34
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Source: seekingalpha
- Rating Downgrade Impact: Barclays downgraded APA and CNX from Equal Weight to Underweight with price targets of $24 and $34, respectively, yet both stocks rose 3.6% and 2.4%, indicating overall market optimism in energy stocks.
- Cash Flow Expectations Shift: Barclays analyst estimates that APA's standalone free cash yield in the Permian Basin will be just 3.8% in 2026, a significant premium over larger U.S. onshore peers, reflecting a trend of re-rating conventional assets.
- Market Environment Effects: APA's outsized gas marketing gains, which significantly contributed to corporate free cash flow in 2024-25, are set to compress materially due to narrowing Waha dislocations and weakening global LNG prices compared to the U.S., potentially impacting future cash flow performance.
- CNX Resources Assessment: CNX trades roughly at par with gas E&Ps on unlevered free cash flow yield despite having significantly shorter inventory duration, with inventory credit ascribed to the deep Utica play that remains far from fully de-risked, indicating market underestimation of its potential value.
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Analyst Views on APA
Wall Street analysts forecast APA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APA is 25.00 USD with a low forecast of 16.00 USD and a high forecast of 40.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
20 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
12 Hold
4 Sell
Hold
Current: 26.010
Low
16.00
Averages
25.00
High
40.00
Current: 26.010
Low
16.00
Averages
25.00
High
40.00
About APA
APA Corporation is an independent energy company. The Company owns subsidiaries that explore for and produce oil and natural gas in the United States, Egypt, and the United Kingdom, and that explore for oil and natural gas offshore Suriname. The Company’s upstream business has oil and gas operations in three geographic areas: the United States, Egypt and offshore the United Kingdom in the North Sea (North Sea). It also has active exploration and appraisal operations ongoing in Suriname, as well as interests in Uruguay and other international locations. It maintains a diversified asset portfolio, including conventional and unconventional, onshore and offshore, oil and natural gas exploration and production interests. In the United States, operations are primarily focused on the Permian Basin of West Texas. The Company has conventional onshore assets in Egypt’s Western Desert, and offshore assets on the United Kingdom’s Continental Shelf.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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