Should You Buy APA Corp (US) (APA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
26.260
1 Day change
0.96%
52 Week Range
27.720
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy (long-term-leaning entry). At ~$25.83 pre-market, APA is in a technically constructive uptrend (bullish moving-average stack) with moderately bullish options positioning (put/call ratios < 1) and a notable counter-signal of heavy insider buying. While recent quarterly fundamentals were weak and Wall Street sentiment has been mixed-to-cautious (recent downgrades/underweights), the current setup still supports a buy-now decision for a beginner long-term investor who is unwilling to wait for a more “perfect” entry—especially with near-term gas-driven headlines acting as a potential catalyst into the next earnings window (2026-02-26).
Technical Analysis
Price/Trend: Pre-market ~$25.83, sitting just below the pivot (26.067) and above first support (S1 25.16). The broader trend reads bullish: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 suggests an established uptrend.
Momentum: RSI(6) ~53.7 (neutral, not overbought). MACD histogram is positive (0.0323) but contracting, implying bullish momentum is fading short-term rather than accelerating.
Levels to watch: Support 25.16 then 24.60; Resistance 26.98 then 27.54. A clean push back above ~26.07 and then ~26.98 would confirm trend continuation; losing ~25.16 raises risk of a drift toward ~24.60.
Pattern-based near-term bias: Similar-pattern stats suggest mild downside drift (-0.91% next day; -3.77% next month), which argues for expecting some chop even if the longer trend remains constructive.
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Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment read: Both open-interest and volume put/call ratios below 1 skew bullish (more call positioning than puts).
Positioning/Liquidity: Call OI 166,144 vs Put OI 92,338 (call-heavy). Today’s option volume (3,742) is low vs its recent averages (today vs 30D avg volume ~41%), so the bullish skew is present but not accompanied by unusually strong same-day flow.
Volatility: 30D IV ~45.5 vs historical vol ~50.7 (IV slightly below realized). IV percentile ~54.8 (mid-range), not signaling extreme fear or euphoria.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
on 2026-02-26 pre-market can act as a sentiment/catalyst point if results/guide confirm improving execution.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Fundamentals (recent): The latest reported quarter showed sharp YoY declines in revenue, net income, and EPS, which can cap valuation re-rating until results stabilize.
- Wall Street caution has increased recently: Barclays downgraded to Underweight; Morgan Stanley remains Underweight with a $21 target.
- Industry/commodity risks highlighted by analysts: Concerns around oil oversupply and (per Barclays) potential compression of certain gas-related gains as market dislocations narrow and LNG pricing weakens.
- Flows: Hedge funds are selling (selling amount up ~319% over the last quarter), a negative institutional-demand signal.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $2.115B, down 16.44% YoY (top-line contraction).
- Net income: $205M, down 191.93% YoY (material deterioration vs prior year).
- EPS: $0.57, down 195.00% YoY.
- Gross margin: 46.81%, down 3.36% YoY.
Growth takeaway: The most recent quarter reflects a clear downshift in YoY profitability and sales, so the long-term bull case relies more on operational consistency/catalysts and commodity backdrop improving into 2026 than on currently strong reported growth.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend (last ~2 months): Ratings skew mixed but have tilted more cautious in January with multiple underweight/underperform views appearing alongside neutral/market-perform stances.
- Notable downgrades/caution: Barclays downgraded to Underweight (PT ~$24). Morgan Stanley stays Underweight and cut PT to $21.
- Neutral/hold-leaning: RBC Sector Perform with PT raised to $26; JPMorgan Neutral PT $26; Bernstein Market Perform PT $25; UBS Neutral PT $30.
- Bullish outliers: Johnson Rice Accumulate with PT $40; William Blair Outperform with ~$32 fair value.
Wall Street pros: Improving execution narrative; multiple targets above the current price (notably $30-$32, and JR $40).
Wall Street cons: Several firms remain underweight/underperform citing cash-flow/valuation vs peers and commodity/macro headwinds.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available (no politician activity indicated).
Wall Street analysts forecast APA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APA is 25 USD with a low forecast of 16 USD and a high forecast of 40 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
20 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast APA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APA is 25 USD with a low forecast of 16 USD and a high forecast of 40 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
12 Hold
4 Sell
Hold
Current: 26.010
Low
16
Averages
25
High
40
Current: 26.010
Low
16
Averages
25
High
40
RBC Capital
Sector Perform
maintain
$25 -> $26
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$25 -> $26
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
maintain
Sector Perform
Reason
RBC Capital raised the firm's price target on APA Corp. to $26 from $25 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The company continues to turn the ship with better performance occurring over the last few quarters that likely continues, and while investor sentiment remains mixed, the investment case is improved given de-risking of quarterly performance, more operational consistency, and several forward catalysts, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Morgan Stanley
Underweight
downgrade
$23 -> $21
2026-01-23
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$23 -> $21
2026-01-23
downgrade
Underweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on APA Corp. to $21 from $23 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm marked its 2026-27 oil price deck for strip as of January 7 in conjunction with its Q4 preview for the E&Ps, oil majors and Canadian producers. The firm expects "fairly clean" Q4 operational updates but lighter cash flow from price realizations, the analyst tells investors in the preview.
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