Analysts Downgrade Salesforce Forecasts Following Q3 Results
Earnings Report: Salesforce Inc. reported third-quarter revenue of $10.26 billion and adjusted earnings of $3.25 per share, exceeding expectations, while raising its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $41.45 billion to $41.55 billion.
Product Performance: The company's Agentforce and Data 360 products contributed significantly to growth, achieving nearly $1.4 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) with a 114% year-over-year increase.
Future Projections: For the fourth quarter, Salesforce expects revenue between $11.13 billion and $11.23 billion, with adjusted earnings projected at $3.02 to $3.04 per share, both surpassing analyst estimates.
Analyst Reactions: Following the earnings announcement, several analysts adjusted their price targets for Salesforce, with most maintaining an Outperform rating but lowering their targets, reflecting a cautious outlook.
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- AI-Driven Growth: Salesforce reported nearly $1.4 billion in annual recurring revenue from its Agentforce and Data 360 products in Q3, reflecting a remarkable 114% year-over-year increase, indicating strong momentum in AI that could drive future revenue growth.
- Free Cash Flow Increase: The company achieved $2.2 billion in free cash flow during Q3, up 22% year-over-year, demonstrating its ability to maintain robust cash flow while integrating AI, thereby enhancing financial stability.
- Revenue Growth Deceleration: Despite a 9% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, the slowdown from the previous quarter's 9% raises concerns among investors about whether Salesforce's AI offerings might be cannibalizing its core business, potentially impacting stock performance.
- Future Revenue Commitments Growth: Salesforce's constant-currency growth rate of its future revenue commitments (cRPO) rose 11% year-over-year in Q3, indicating potential revenue acceleration in the next 12 months, which could bolster overall revenue performance if sustained.
Software and Services Stocks Resilience: Contrary to expectations, software and services stocks are not facing demise due to the rise of artificial intelligence.
AI's Impact on the Market: The introduction of AI technologies has not negatively impacted the performance of these stocks as previously feared.
Best Trade in 2026: The most profitable investment strategy in 2026 has been to buy semiconductor stocks while selling software companies.
Performance of Semiconductor Stocks: The iShares Semiconductor ETF has increased by 19% in 2026, following a 40% gain in 2025.
Struggles of Software Companies: In contrast, software companies have faced significant losses, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF down 22% this year.
Quarterly Decline: The software sector also experienced an 8% decline in the fourth quarter of the previous year.
- Promotion Requirements: Accenture has informed senior staff that regular use of AI tools is a prerequisite for leadership promotions, aiming to enhance the company's competitiveness in the AI sector and ensure employee skills align with market demands.
- Employee Reskilling Initiative: CEO Julie Sweet stated that 550,000 employees have been reskilled in generative AI fundamentals, highlighting the company's commitment to skill enhancement and laying the groundwork for future business transformation.
- Global Employee Impact: While the policy applies to most employees, those in 12 European countries and the division handling U.S. government contracts are exempt, reflecting the company's flexibility and adaptability on a global scale.
- Strategic Partnerships: Accenture has recently partnered with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic to provide AI tool training for tens of thousands of employees, further solidifying its leadership position in AI technology application.
- Amazon's AI Investment: Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in AI and cloud computing by 2026, and despite a current 20% stock drop, this strategy will enhance its competitive edge in the cloud services market, particularly as AI applications drive demand for its AWS business.
- Salesforce's Market Rebound: Salesforce's stock has fallen to 15 times forward earnings due to AI concerns, yet it is expected to grow earnings by 18% annually over the next three to five years, and its proactive integration of AI features will enhance customer retention, making it a rebound candidate.
- Taiwan Semiconductor's Growth Potential: As the world's leading foundry, Taiwan Semiconductor is projected to grow earnings by 30% annually over the next three to five years, with significant opportunities in AI data centers, and its current stock price is only 25 times this year's earnings estimates, indicating a strong buy signal.
- Impact of AI on the Market: With global data center spending expected to approach $6.7 trillion by 2030, Taiwan Semiconductor, as a major chip supplier, stands to benefit significantly from this trend, solidifying its core position in the global tech industry.
- Market Sentiment Shift: In 2025, Palantir Technologies has seen its stock price drop about 22%, while Adobe, Salesforce, and ServiceNow have all slid between 25% and 30%, indicating increasing investor concerns about software stocks despite strong performance reports from these companies.
- Valuation Risk Emergence: With the S&P 500 climbing 78% from 2023 to 2025, many software stocks have run ahead of their underlying fundamentals, leading to a market reassessment of these high-valuation stocks, which could further depress prices.
- Misunderstanding of AI Impact: While AI is viewed as a potential disruptive force, analysis suggests that its application is actually helping incumbents enhance their competitive advantages rather than simply threatening their market positions, indicating that market fears regarding AI may be misguided.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite Palantir's stock price decline year-to-date, it has risen over 80% since the beginning of 2025, reflecting strong revenue growth and profitability, suggesting market recognition of its long-term growth potential.










