Analysis of Nvidia's Recent Stock Underperformance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: Fool
- Strong Financial Performance: Despite Nvidia's (NVDA) 2% year-to-date stock decline, its latest earnings report indicates accelerating revenue growth in Q3, with strong guidance for Q4, suggesting robust market demand in the AI sector that could drive future sales growth.
- Giant Investment Plans: Tech giants like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft have announced massive AI investments, with Amazon planning to spend around $200 billion despite only $11.2 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, raising concerns about sustainability while potentially boosting Nvidia's sales in the short term.
- In-House Chip Programs Rising: Amazon's Trainium2 AI chip business is generating over $10 billion in annual revenue and is fully subscribed, indicating that competitors are rapidly developing their own chip solutions, which could erode Nvidia's market share, especially as price competition intensifies.
- Valuation Pressure: Nvidia's current P/E ratio stands at 45, with a forward P/E of 24; while the company is experiencing rapid earnings growth, any slowdown in AI chip demand or the emergence of lower-cost alternatives from competitors could pressure Nvidia's pricing power and margins, leading to further stock price declines.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 186.940
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 186.940
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Nvidia's Earnings Report to Signal Market Direction
- Market Concentration Analysis: RBC Wealth Management's Rob Sluymer highlights that the concentration of mega-cap tech stocks has significantly increased over the past few years, leading to investors being overweight in these stocks, which have now declined about 7% year-to-date.
- Nvidia Earnings Preview: Nvidia is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 25, and Sluymer believes this will serve as a crucial market indicator; if the results fall short of expectations, it could trigger a larger correction in tech stocks.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: As attention on tech stocks rises, Sluymer notes that some funds are rotating out of these high-valuation stocks into other sectors, a typical behavior in times of high market concentration.
- Future Market Outlook: Should Nvidia's earnings report disappoint, it may lead to a decline in market confidence in tech stocks, potentially resulting in a broader market correction that could impact overall investment strategies.
See More
Nvidia Poised for Strong GPU Sales in China Again
- Massive Market Opportunity: Nvidia has negotiated a deal with the U.S. government to resume GPU sales to China, with CEO Jensen Huang estimating the Chinese market could generate up to $50 billion annually, significantly boosting the company's performance.
- Sales Recovery Expectations: Before the ban, Nvidia projected $8 billion in sales from China for Q2 FY 2025; if sales return to similar levels, GPU sales could exceed $30 billion, presenting substantial growth potential.
- Revenue Growth Forecast: Wall Street anticipates Nvidia's revenue will reach $326 billion for FY 2027, but given the surge in AI computing spending, actual revenue could hit $350 billion, further enhancing market confidence.
- Strong Profitability: If Nvidia achieves $350 billion in revenue while maintaining a 56% profit margin, it could generate $196 billion in profits, and with a reasonable 40x earnings valuation, the stock price could rise to $322, indicating a compelling investment opportunity.
See More
Analysis of Nvidia's Recent Stock Underperformance
- Strong Financial Performance: Despite Nvidia's (NVDA) 2% year-to-date stock decline, its latest earnings report indicates accelerating revenue growth in Q3, with strong guidance for Q4, suggesting robust market demand in the AI sector that could drive future sales growth.
- Giant Investment Plans: Tech giants like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft have announced massive AI investments, with Amazon planning to spend around $200 billion despite only $11.2 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, raising concerns about sustainability while potentially boosting Nvidia's sales in the short term.
- In-House Chip Programs Rising: Amazon's Trainium2 AI chip business is generating over $10 billion in annual revenue and is fully subscribed, indicating that competitors are rapidly developing their own chip solutions, which could erode Nvidia's market share, especially as price competition intensifies.
- Valuation Pressure: Nvidia's current P/E ratio stands at 45, with a forward P/E of 24; while the company is experiencing rapid earnings growth, any slowdown in AI chip demand or the emergence of lower-cost alternatives from competitors could pressure Nvidia's pricing power and margins, leading to further stock price declines.
See More
Investors Grow Concerned About Potential Bear Market
- Shift in Market Sentiment: Since 2022, investor fears of a bear market have intensified, with value, dividend, and international stocks leading the way despite the S&P 500 being virtually flat in 2026, indicating a cautious outlook on economic prospects.
- Economic Growth Expectations: While current GDP and earnings growth expectations remain stable and inflation is not raising immediate concerns, worries about the job market and tariff impacts could make stocks vulnerable to corrections, prompting investors to consider portfolio adjustments in anticipation of potential changes.
- Bond Investment Strategy: The Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) focuses on short-term bonds, offering a 3.6% yield that helps investors maintain low volatility during stock downturns, effectively eliminating default risk and serving as a preferred safe asset.
- Defensive Stock Allocation: The Vanguard U.S. Minimum Volatility ETF (VFMV) reduces portfolio risk by investing in low-volatility stocks, with current sector allocations of 26% technology, 12% industrials, and 11% consumer discretionary, providing a buffer against market fluctuations.
See More
Sandisk's Rise in the AI Market
- Surge in Demand: Since the commercial launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, Nvidia's stock has skyrocketed over 1,000%, creating unprecedented demand for high-bandwidth memory chips, with Sandisk's solid-state drives and NAND flash memory solutions perfectly positioned to meet this need, highlighting its significance in the AI market.
- Massive Market Potential: The total addressable market (TAM) for high-bandwidth memory was estimated at $35 billion last year, with Micron projecting a 40% compound annual growth rate, potentially reaching $100 billion by 2028, indicating Sandisk's revenue of only $9 billion represents just a fraction of its growth potential in this rapidly expanding market.
- Technological Evolution Opportunity: Sandisk is undergoing a transformation similar to Nvidia's, as its enterprise solid-state drives and NAND flash memory services become integral components of hyperscaler data center architectures, demonstrating the company's ability to capitalize on the opportunities presented by AI infrastructure development.
- Positive Investment Trends: With the
See More
2026 Data Center Construction Boom Ahead
- Surge in AI Spending: Spending on artificial intelligence is projected to reach new heights by 2026, driving significant growth for Nvidia, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor, making them top picks for investors looking to capitalize on this trend.
- Capital Expenditure Forecast: Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are expected to collectively invest over $500 billion in 2026 for data center construction and equipment purchases, with Nvidia and Broadcom benefiting significantly as chips account for nearly half of data center construction costs.
- Significant Growth Potential: Nvidia forecasts that global data center capital expenditures will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by 2030, indicating immense future demand for infrastructure, which could drive stock prices of related companies higher.
- Market Valuation Lag: Despite Nvidia, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor being projected to achieve impressive revenue growth, the market has not assigned them significant premiums, with Nvidia expected to grow 64% in fiscal 2027, while Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor are projected to grow 51% and 34%, respectively.
See More
Nvidia's Earnings Report to Signal Market Direction
- Market Concentration Analysis: RBC Wealth Management's Rob Sluymer highlights that the concentration of mega-cap tech stocks has significantly increased over the past few years, leading to investors being overweight in these stocks, which have now declined about 7% year-to-date.
- Nvidia Earnings Preview: Nvidia is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 25, and Sluymer believes this will serve as a crucial market indicator; if the results fall short of expectations, it could trigger a larger correction in tech stocks.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: As attention on tech stocks rises, Sluymer notes that some funds are rotating out of these high-valuation stocks into other sectors, a typical behavior in times of high market concentration.
- Future Market Outlook: Should Nvidia's earnings report disappoint, it may lead to a decline in market confidence in tech stocks, potentially resulting in a broader market correction that could impact overall investment strategies.
See More
Nvidia Poised for Strong GPU Sales in China Again
- Massive Market Opportunity: Nvidia has negotiated a deal with the U.S. government to resume GPU sales to China, with CEO Jensen Huang estimating the Chinese market could generate up to $50 billion annually, significantly boosting the company's performance.
- Sales Recovery Expectations: Before the ban, Nvidia projected $8 billion in sales from China for Q2 FY 2025; if sales return to similar levels, GPU sales could exceed $30 billion, presenting substantial growth potential.
- Revenue Growth Forecast: Wall Street anticipates Nvidia's revenue will reach $326 billion for FY 2027, but given the surge in AI computing spending, actual revenue could hit $350 billion, further enhancing market confidence.
- Strong Profitability: If Nvidia achieves $350 billion in revenue while maintaining a 56% profit margin, it could generate $196 billion in profits, and with a reasonable 40x earnings valuation, the stock price could rise to $322, indicating a compelling investment opportunity.
See More
Analysis of Nvidia's Recent Stock Underperformance
- Strong Financial Performance: Despite Nvidia's (NVDA) 2% year-to-date stock decline, its latest earnings report indicates accelerating revenue growth in Q3, with strong guidance for Q4, suggesting robust market demand in the AI sector that could drive future sales growth.
- Giant Investment Plans: Tech giants like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft have announced massive AI investments, with Amazon planning to spend around $200 billion despite only $11.2 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, raising concerns about sustainability while potentially boosting Nvidia's sales in the short term.
- In-House Chip Programs Rising: Amazon's Trainium2 AI chip business is generating over $10 billion in annual revenue and is fully subscribed, indicating that competitors are rapidly developing their own chip solutions, which could erode Nvidia's market share, especially as price competition intensifies.
- Valuation Pressure: Nvidia's current P/E ratio stands at 45, with a forward P/E of 24; while the company is experiencing rapid earnings growth, any slowdown in AI chip demand or the emergence of lower-cost alternatives from competitors could pressure Nvidia's pricing power and margins, leading to further stock price declines.
See More
Investors Grow Concerned About Potential Bear Market
- Shift in Market Sentiment: Since 2022, investor fears of a bear market have intensified, with value, dividend, and international stocks leading the way despite the S&P 500 being virtually flat in 2026, indicating a cautious outlook on economic prospects.
- Economic Growth Expectations: While current GDP and earnings growth expectations remain stable and inflation is not raising immediate concerns, worries about the job market and tariff impacts could make stocks vulnerable to corrections, prompting investors to consider portfolio adjustments in anticipation of potential changes.
- Bond Investment Strategy: The Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) focuses on short-term bonds, offering a 3.6% yield that helps investors maintain low volatility during stock downturns, effectively eliminating default risk and serving as a preferred safe asset.
- Defensive Stock Allocation: The Vanguard U.S. Minimum Volatility ETF (VFMV) reduces portfolio risk by investing in low-volatility stocks, with current sector allocations of 26% technology, 12% industrials, and 11% consumer discretionary, providing a buffer against market fluctuations.
See More
Sandisk's Rise in the AI Market
- Surge in Demand: Since the commercial launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, Nvidia's stock has skyrocketed over 1,000%, creating unprecedented demand for high-bandwidth memory chips, with Sandisk's solid-state drives and NAND flash memory solutions perfectly positioned to meet this need, highlighting its significance in the AI market.
- Massive Market Potential: The total addressable market (TAM) for high-bandwidth memory was estimated at $35 billion last year, with Micron projecting a 40% compound annual growth rate, potentially reaching $100 billion by 2028, indicating Sandisk's revenue of only $9 billion represents just a fraction of its growth potential in this rapidly expanding market.
- Technological Evolution Opportunity: Sandisk is undergoing a transformation similar to Nvidia's, as its enterprise solid-state drives and NAND flash memory services become integral components of hyperscaler data center architectures, demonstrating the company's ability to capitalize on the opportunities presented by AI infrastructure development.
- Positive Investment Trends: With the
See More
2026 Data Center Construction Boom Ahead
- Surge in AI Spending: Spending on artificial intelligence is projected to reach new heights by 2026, driving significant growth for Nvidia, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor, making them top picks for investors looking to capitalize on this trend.
- Capital Expenditure Forecast: Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are expected to collectively invest over $500 billion in 2026 for data center construction and equipment purchases, with Nvidia and Broadcom benefiting significantly as chips account for nearly half of data center construction costs.
- Significant Growth Potential: Nvidia forecasts that global data center capital expenditures will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by 2030, indicating immense future demand for infrastructure, which could drive stock prices of related companies higher.
- Market Valuation Lag: Despite Nvidia, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor being projected to achieve impressive revenue growth, the market has not assigned them significant premiums, with Nvidia expected to grow 64% in fiscal 2027, while Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor are projected to grow 51% and 34%, respectively.
See More
