AI Wave and Market Bubble Warning
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 13 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MSFT?
Source: Fool
- Market Performance Weakness: In 2026, the S&P 500 has gained less than 2% while the Nasdaq Composite remains unchanged, indicating a weakening market sentiment that investors need to navigate cautiously amid current volatility.
- Valuation Metrics Warning: The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio is hovering near 40, a level only seen before the 2000 internet bubble, raising concerns among investors about a potential repeat of 1999, necessitating vigilance regarding underlying risks.
- AI vs. Internet Bubble Comparison: While the current AI revolution is often labeled a bubble, unlike the late 1990s, companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are generating profits, suggesting a more sustainable business model amidst the AI wave.
- Investment Strategy Adjustment: As market uncertainty increases, investors should reduce exposure to volatile stocks and shift towards blue-chip stocks with resilient business models to mitigate risks and capitalize on buying opportunities during market corrections.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy MSFT?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on MSFT
Wall Street analysts forecast MSFT stock price to rise
34 Analyst Rating
32 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 369.370
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
Current: 369.370
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
About MSFT
Microsoft Corporation is a technology company that develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. Its Productivity and Business Processes segment consists of products and services in its portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services, spanning a variety of devices and platforms. It comprises Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services; Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services; LinkedIn, and Dynamics products and cloud services. The Intelligent Cloud segment consists of its public, private, and hybrid server products and cloud services. It comprises server products and cloud services, including Azure, and enterprise and partner services, including Enterprise Support Services. Its More Personal Computing segment primarily comprises Windows and Devices, including Windows OEM licensing; Gaming, including Xbox hardware and Xbox content; Search and news advertising, comprising Bing and Copilot, Microsoft News, and Microsoft Edge.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Microsoft Adjusts Copilot Sales Strategy Amid Analyst Feedback
- Sales Strategy Adjustment: Microsoft has revamped its sales strategy for the Microsoft 365 Copilot after analyst feedback, aiming to increase corporate user adoption, with only 15 million seats currently representing 3% of standard bundle seats.
- Quarterly Goals Achieved: The company set ambitious targets for the March quarter and successfully met them, indicating potential in AI product sales despite facing intense market competition.
- Market Reaction: Although Microsoft's stock fell 23% in Q1, the company has ramped up investments in data centers to support cloud customers like OpenAI, reflecting long-term confidence in AI products.
- Future Outlook: Executives express strong confidence in the upcoming June quarter targets, anticipating continued growth in Copilot adoption, even as analysts note that current user growth remains in its nascent stages.
See More
Brookfield Renewable's Green Energy Business Thrives Amid AI Demand
- Renewable Energy Growth: Brookfield Renewable operated 47 GW of renewable capacity by the end of 2025 and has over 200 GW of projects in development, indicating strong growth potential in the green energy market, with further expansion expected through long-term contracts with hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google.
- Financial Performance Outlook: Analysts project Brookfield's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at CAGRs of 22% and 6% respectively from 2025 to 2028, reflecting its profitability and competitive edge in the green energy sector, with an enterprise value of $58.4 billion still appearing relatively cheap at 15 times this year's adjusted EBITDA.
- GE Vernova's Market Performance: Since its spin-off in 2024, GE Vernova's stock has surged nearly eightfold, with double-digit growth in its Power and Electrification orders in 2025 driven by the expansion of cloud and AI markets, highlighting its critical role in energy transition.
- Future Growth Potential: Analysts expect GE Vernova's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to increase at CAGRs of 15% and 55% from 2025 to 2028, and despite its enterprise value of $233 billion and a meager forward yield of 0.2%, its potential to meet future energy demands makes it a compelling investment for investors.
See More
OpenAI CEO Simo Takes Medical Leave Due to Health Issues
- Leadership Changes: OpenAI CEO Fidji Simo announced a significant medical leave due to a worsening neuroimmune condition, during which President Greg Brockman will oversee product management, potentially impacting the company's product development timeline.
- Health Challenges: In a memo, Simo revealed that her health has been particularly poor over the past month, and despite postponing medical tests to focus on work, she recognized the need for new interventions to stabilize her health, which may affect her long-term performance.
- Strategic Focus: An OpenAI spokesperson stated that despite the leadership changes, the company remains committed to advancing frontier research, expanding its global user base of nearly 1 billion, and powering enterprise use cases, demonstrating ongoing execution strength in key areas.
- Project Restructuring: Additionally, COO Brad Lightcap will transition to a new role focused on
See More
OpenAI Executive Shakeup Amid IPO Preparations
- Executive Role Shift: OpenAI's COO Brad Lightcap is transitioning to lead special projects, reporting directly to CEO Sam Altman, with a focus on overseeing a joint venture with private equity firms to enhance the company's competitiveness in the enterprise software market.
- Health-Related Leaves: Chief Marketing Officer Kate Rouch is stepping down temporarily to focus on cancer recovery, with plans to return in a limited capacity, while the company searches for a new CMO to ensure continuity in marketing efforts.
- AGI Development Leadership Absence: Fidji Simo, CEO of AGI development, will also take a medical leave for several weeks, which may impact the company's core business operations, particularly at this critical juncture ahead of the IPO.
- Funding and IPO Readiness: OpenAI recently closed a $122 billion funding round, including over $3 billion from individual investors, establishing a strong financial foundation for the upcoming IPO and demonstrating market confidence in its future growth.
See More
Utility Stocks Poised for Growth Amid AI Demand
- Brookfield Renewable Growth: As of the end of 2025, Brookfield Renewable operates 47 GW of renewable capacity with over 200 GW in development, and analysts project a 22% CAGR in revenue from 2025 to 2028, highlighting its strong growth potential in the green energy market.
- Long-Term Contract Advantage: Brookfield has secured long-term renewable power agreements with hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google, and as the cloud and AI markets expand, it is expected to gain more contracts, enhancing its market competitiveness and revenue stability.
- GE Vernova's Rapid Surge: Since its spin-off in 2024, GE Vernova's stock has surged nearly eightfold, with analysts forecasting a 15% CAGR in revenue from 2025 to 2028, primarily driven by the expansion of cloud computing and AI markets, prompting utilities to accelerate electrification.
- Power and Electrification Order Growth: GE Vernova has seen double-digit growth in its Power and Electrification orders over the past two years, indicating strong market demand and growth potential, despite slower growth in its wind segment.
See More
Microsoft Faces Challenges and Opportunities in AI
- Underwhelming AI Assistant: Microsoft's Copilot AI assistant has faced widespread criticism for its high price and relatively poor performance, leading to low adoption rates, which indicates that Microsoft has squandered its early advantage from its partnership with OpenAI, negatively impacting market confidence in its future prospects.
- Significant Stock Decline: Despite a 17% year-over-year revenue increase to $81.3 billion in the latest quarter and a 39% surge in Azure cloud service revenue, Microsoft's stock has dropped 23% year-to-date, with a market cap now at $2.8 trillion, reflecting a pessimistic investor sentiment regarding its future.
- New AI Model Development Plans: Microsoft aims to develop state-of-the-art AI models by 2027 to generate text, audio, and images, intending to compete with industry leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic; success in this endeavor could address Copilot's weaknesses and enhance product stickiness.
- Market Recovery Potential: If Microsoft successfully launches a new AI assistant, its stock could rebound to previous peaks, representing a potential 50% gain, indicating that the company still holds significant potential in the AI sector.
See More
Microsoft Adjusts Copilot Sales Strategy Amid Analyst Feedback
- Sales Strategy Adjustment: Microsoft has revamped its sales strategy for the Microsoft 365 Copilot after analyst feedback, aiming to increase corporate user adoption, with only 15 million seats currently representing 3% of standard bundle seats.
- Quarterly Goals Achieved: The company set ambitious targets for the March quarter and successfully met them, indicating potential in AI product sales despite facing intense market competition.
- Market Reaction: Although Microsoft's stock fell 23% in Q1, the company has ramped up investments in data centers to support cloud customers like OpenAI, reflecting long-term confidence in AI products.
- Future Outlook: Executives express strong confidence in the upcoming June quarter targets, anticipating continued growth in Copilot adoption, even as analysts note that current user growth remains in its nascent stages.
See More
Brookfield Renewable's Green Energy Business Thrives Amid AI Demand
- Renewable Energy Growth: Brookfield Renewable operated 47 GW of renewable capacity by the end of 2025 and has over 200 GW of projects in development, indicating strong growth potential in the green energy market, with further expansion expected through long-term contracts with hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google.
- Financial Performance Outlook: Analysts project Brookfield's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at CAGRs of 22% and 6% respectively from 2025 to 2028, reflecting its profitability and competitive edge in the green energy sector, with an enterprise value of $58.4 billion still appearing relatively cheap at 15 times this year's adjusted EBITDA.
- GE Vernova's Market Performance: Since its spin-off in 2024, GE Vernova's stock has surged nearly eightfold, with double-digit growth in its Power and Electrification orders in 2025 driven by the expansion of cloud and AI markets, highlighting its critical role in energy transition.
- Future Growth Potential: Analysts expect GE Vernova's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to increase at CAGRs of 15% and 55% from 2025 to 2028, and despite its enterprise value of $233 billion and a meager forward yield of 0.2%, its potential to meet future energy demands makes it a compelling investment for investors.
See More
OpenAI CEO Simo Takes Medical Leave Due to Health Issues
- Leadership Changes: OpenAI CEO Fidji Simo announced a significant medical leave due to a worsening neuroimmune condition, during which President Greg Brockman will oversee product management, potentially impacting the company's product development timeline.
- Health Challenges: In a memo, Simo revealed that her health has been particularly poor over the past month, and despite postponing medical tests to focus on work, she recognized the need for new interventions to stabilize her health, which may affect her long-term performance.
- Strategic Focus: An OpenAI spokesperson stated that despite the leadership changes, the company remains committed to advancing frontier research, expanding its global user base of nearly 1 billion, and powering enterprise use cases, demonstrating ongoing execution strength in key areas.
- Project Restructuring: Additionally, COO Brad Lightcap will transition to a new role focused on
See More
OpenAI Executive Shakeup Amid IPO Preparations
- Executive Role Shift: OpenAI's COO Brad Lightcap is transitioning to lead special projects, reporting directly to CEO Sam Altman, with a focus on overseeing a joint venture with private equity firms to enhance the company's competitiveness in the enterprise software market.
- Health-Related Leaves: Chief Marketing Officer Kate Rouch is stepping down temporarily to focus on cancer recovery, with plans to return in a limited capacity, while the company searches for a new CMO to ensure continuity in marketing efforts.
- AGI Development Leadership Absence: Fidji Simo, CEO of AGI development, will also take a medical leave for several weeks, which may impact the company's core business operations, particularly at this critical juncture ahead of the IPO.
- Funding and IPO Readiness: OpenAI recently closed a $122 billion funding round, including over $3 billion from individual investors, establishing a strong financial foundation for the upcoming IPO and demonstrating market confidence in its future growth.
See More
Utility Stocks Poised for Growth Amid AI Demand
- Brookfield Renewable Growth: As of the end of 2025, Brookfield Renewable operates 47 GW of renewable capacity with over 200 GW in development, and analysts project a 22% CAGR in revenue from 2025 to 2028, highlighting its strong growth potential in the green energy market.
- Long-Term Contract Advantage: Brookfield has secured long-term renewable power agreements with hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google, and as the cloud and AI markets expand, it is expected to gain more contracts, enhancing its market competitiveness and revenue stability.
- GE Vernova's Rapid Surge: Since its spin-off in 2024, GE Vernova's stock has surged nearly eightfold, with analysts forecasting a 15% CAGR in revenue from 2025 to 2028, primarily driven by the expansion of cloud computing and AI markets, prompting utilities to accelerate electrification.
- Power and Electrification Order Growth: GE Vernova has seen double-digit growth in its Power and Electrification orders over the past two years, indicating strong market demand and growth potential, despite slower growth in its wind segment.
See More
Microsoft Faces Challenges and Opportunities in AI
- Underwhelming AI Assistant: Microsoft's Copilot AI assistant has faced widespread criticism for its high price and relatively poor performance, leading to low adoption rates, which indicates that Microsoft has squandered its early advantage from its partnership with OpenAI, negatively impacting market confidence in its future prospects.
- Significant Stock Decline: Despite a 17% year-over-year revenue increase to $81.3 billion in the latest quarter and a 39% surge in Azure cloud service revenue, Microsoft's stock has dropped 23% year-to-date, with a market cap now at $2.8 trillion, reflecting a pessimistic investor sentiment regarding its future.
- New AI Model Development Plans: Microsoft aims to develop state-of-the-art AI models by 2027 to generate text, audio, and images, intending to compete with industry leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic; success in this endeavor could address Copilot's weaknesses and enhance product stickiness.
- Market Recovery Potential: If Microsoft successfully launches a new AI assistant, its stock could rebound to previous peaks, representing a potential 50% gain, indicating that the company still holds significant potential in the AI sector.
See More
