AbbVie Faces New Competition as Skyrizi Sales Outlook Remains Positive
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 18 2026
0mins
Should l Buy JNJ?
Source: seekingalpha
- Increased Competition: AbbVie (ABBV) shares fell approximately 4% on Wednesday as BNP Paribas analysts highlighted that the FDA approval of Icotyde, a pill developed by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Protagonist Therapeutics (PRGX), could pose a competitive threat to AbbVie's immunology blockbuster Skyrizi.
- Market Expansion Potential: Despite the potential competition from Icotyde, analysts believe that Skyrizi remains well-positioned in the plaque psoriasis market due to its strong efficacy and compliance advantages of its injectable form, projecting a 23% year-over-year sales increase for Skyrizi in FY26E.
- Increased Market Penetration: Analysts noted that the introduction of Icotyde could help expand the market, with current penetration rates at 30-40%, suggesting that Skyrizi still has room for growth, with a projected CAGR of 14% from FY25-28E.
- Future Competitive Risks: Ongoing studies for Icotyde in other inflammatory disorders, such as psoriatic arthritis, could represent additional competition for Skyrizi, although AbbVie’s strong market position suggests that future sales growth remains a critical driver for the company.
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Analyst Views on JNJ
Wall Street analysts forecast JNJ stock price to fall
20 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 244.120
Low
190.00
Averages
218.50
High
240.00
Current: 244.120
Low
190.00
Averages
218.50
High
240.00
About JNJ
Johnson & Johnson and its subsidiaries are engaged in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field. The Company’s segments include Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment is focused on various therapeutic areas, including immunology, infectious diseases, neuroscience, oncology, pulmonary hypertension, cardiovascular and metabolism. Its products include REMICADE (infliximab), SIMPONI (golimumab), SIMPONI ARIA (golimumab), STELARA (ustekinumab), TREMFYA (guselkumab), EDURANT (rilpivirine), and INVEGA SUSTENNA/XEPLION (paliperidone palmitate). The MedTech segment includes a portfolio of products used in cardiovascular, orthopedics, surgery, and vision categories. The Cardiovascular portfolio includes electrophysiology products to treat heart rhythm disorders and circulatory restoration products (Shockwave) for the treatment of calcified coronary artery disease (CAD) and peripheral artery disease (PAD).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Manufacturing Incentives: Drugmakers can reduce or avoid tariffs by relocating production to the U.S. or negotiating deals with the administration, aiming to stimulate domestic manufacturing and potentially leading to a resurgence of investments in the pharmaceutical sector.
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Healthcare Stocks Performance in Economic Recession
- Defensive Healthcare Advantage: Large-cap healthcare stocks like Johnson & Johnson and CVS Health exhibit strong performance during economic downturns, with low beta values (0.33 for JNJ and 0.46 for CVS) indicating smaller losses during market declines, thus providing a stable income source for risk-averse investors.
- Rising Recession Risks: The ongoing conflict in Iran has led to soaring energy and food prices, increasing the risk of a global economic recession, prompting investors to gravitate towards healthcare stocks to mitigate potential market volatility and uncertainty.
- High-Risk, High-Reward Strategy: Smaller healthcare companies such as Grail and Viking Therapeutics present high-risk, high-reward investment opportunities; despite Grail's multi-cancer early detection test failing to meet primary endpoints, follow-up data could potentially shift market perceptions positively.
- Portfolio Diversification: In light of increasing economic uncertainty, building a diversified portfolio of small healthcare companies can effectively mitigate stock-specific risks, particularly those reliant on clinical trial outcomes, which may offer potential returns amidst market fluctuations.
See More
Iran Conflict Raises Recession Risks Amid Inflation
- Recession Risk: The ongoing conflict in Iran is causing inflationary pressures from soaring energy and food prices, complicating global economic challenges and increasing investor interest in healthcare stocks as a defensive measure.
- Defensive Healthcare Stocks: Large-cap pharmaceutical company Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and integrated healthcare company CVS Health are viewed as defensive stocks, with JNJ's beta at 0.33 and CVS at 0.46, indicating their relative stability during economic downturns.
- Opportunities in Small-Cap Stocks: Investors may consider small- and mid-cap healthcare companies whose growth relies on binary events like clinical trial results, as successful firms can offset losses from others, despite the inherent risks.
- Investment Strategy Choices: Risk-averse investors may prefer low-beta defensive stocks, while risk-seeking investors might opt for high-risk, high-reward healthcare stocks to navigate potential recessionary pressures.
See More
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- Net Inflow Trend: Over the past year, derivative income ETFs have seen significant net inflows, particularly in single-stock ETFs, with the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF and JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF collectively managing $78 billion in assets, indicating strong investor demand for high-yield covered call products.
- Investment Strategy Analysis: The JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF targets low-volatility stocks and writes out-of-the-money S&P 500 call options to generate monthly income, aiming to reduce downside risk and provide stable cash flow despite challenges like economic slowdown and negative non-farm payroll growth.
- Market Environment Impact: With the U.S. GDP growth rate slowing to just 0.7% in Q4 2025 and the OECD forecasting a 4% inflation rate, these economic conditions are not supportive of rising stock prices, prompting investors to shift towards more defensive investment strategies to mitigate market volatility.
- ETF Comparison: Given the current macroeconomic conditions, the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF is viewed as the better choice due to its low-volatility stocks providing a layer of protection, while the JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF, despite an attractive 11.4% yield, carries higher risks due to the volatility of tech stocks.
See More
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- High Yield Performance: In the current market pullback, high yield and defensive strategies have outperformed the broader market, particularly covered call strategies, which have attracted significant inflows, indicating strong investor demand for income.
- ETF Inflows: Over the past year, derivative income exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen substantial net inflows, notably the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) and the JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPQ), which together manage $78 billion in assets, reflecting a market preference for high-yield products.
- Low Volatility Investment: The JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF focuses on low-volatility stocks, holding companies like Walmart and Johnson & Johnson, aiming to provide stable cash flow and reduced downside risk, which is crucial in the current environment of slowing economic growth.
- Market Outlook Analysis: Although JEPQ offers a yield of 11.4%, in the context of a slowing economy and labor market, low-volatility stocks may provide better defensive characteristics, making them more suitable for the current uncertain market conditions.
See More
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- Widespread Tariff Impact: Trump's tariff policies have placed significant economic pressure on U.S. businesses over the past year, with approximately 80% to 85% of costs absorbed by companies, leading to reduced profits and increased consumer prices, thereby exacerbating overall economic uncertainty.
- Retail Sector Adaptation: While large retailers like Walmart have emerged relatively unscathed, smaller businesses have been severely impacted, with Home Depot aiming to limit purchases from any single country to 10% to reduce dependency and enhance supply chain flexibility.
- Automotive Industry Cost Surge: Automakers such as General Motors and Toyota are facing tariff impacts estimated at up to $9.5 billion, and although the Trump administration has taken steps to alleviate overlapping tariffs, overall costs remain significant, forcing companies to reassess their supply chain strategies.
- Pharmaceutical Sector Stability: Pharmaceutical companies have secured three-year tariff exemptions through pricing agreements with Trump, although new tariffs impose 100% on companies that do not reach agreements, the overall industry is still striving to increase investments in U.S. manufacturing.
See More
Trump Administration Plans 100% Tariffs on Imported Pharmaceuticals
- Tariff Policy Shift: The Trump administration is preparing to impose tariffs of up to 100% on branded drugs from companies that have not negotiated price reductions, potentially impacting major pharmaceutical firms like Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and Novo Nordisk, thereby increasing price volatility in the drug market.
- Manufacturing Incentives: Drugmakers can reduce or avoid tariffs by relocating production to the U.S. or negotiating deals with the administration, aiming to stimulate domestic manufacturing and potentially leading to a resurgence of investments in the pharmaceutical sector.
- Tariff Implementation Details: The draft proposal includes a 20% tariff for companies planning to onshore production, escalating to 100% in four years, which could significantly influence the long-term strategic positioning of the pharmaceutical industry.
- National Security Considerations: The tariff proposal stems from a Commerce Department investigation that identified certain pharmaceutical imports as a national security risk, highlighting the government's heightened focus on the security of drug supply chains.
See More
