2026 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook of $380M to $420M
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy NOA?
Sees 2026 adjusted EBITDA $380M-$420M. "Our 2026 outlook is supported by strong visibility, with approximately $1.2 billion of revenue already secured, representing roughly 75% of our midpoint revenue guidance," said CFO Jason Veenstra. "Beyond that, we continue to see a promising bidding environment with a sizeable pipeline currently already in active tender and procurement processes. Based on historical performance and current operating plans, we expect a stable first half of 2026 fairly consistent with the Q4 run rate, excluding the Fargo impacts, followed by stronger second half of the year as newly commissioned equipment, IMC integration benefits, and typical seasonal activity drive increased performance."
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Analyst Views on NOA
Wall Street analysts forecast NOA stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 16.730
Low
14.53
Averages
17.44
High
20.34
Current: 16.730
Low
14.53
Averages
17.44
High
20.34
About NOA
North American Construction Group Ltd. is a Canada-based company. The Company is a provider of heavy civil construction and mining services in Australia, Canada, and the United States. The Company has provided services to the mining, resource and infrastructure construction markets. Its segments are Heavy Equipment - Canada, Heavy Equipment - Australia, and Other. Heavy Equipment - Canada and Heavy Equipment - Australia includes all of aspects of the mining and heavy civil construction services provided within those geographic areas. Other includes its mine management contract work in the United States, its external maintenance and rebuild programs and equity method investments. The Company provides a range of mining and heavy construction services to customers in the resource development and industrial construction sectors.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
North American Construction Group Q4 Financial Results
- Earnings Decline: North American Construction Group reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of -C$0.14, indicating challenges in profitability that may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Revenue Decrease: The company's Q4 revenue stood at C$344.01 million, reflecting a 7.7% year-over-year decline, which suggests weakened market demand and increased competition that could pressure future performance.
- Historical Financial Data: Historical earnings data for North American Construction Group indicates that despite current challenges, the company has maintained a certain level of revenue over the past few quarters, demonstrating its market adaptability.
- Dividend Performance: The dividend scorecard for the company shows that despite the current financial downturn, attention should be paid to its future dividend policy to assess the long-term return potential for shareholders.
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- Significant Holding Proportion: Following this transaction, Parsons represents 4.44% of Bastion's $181.13 million reportable U.S. equity assets, highlighting its importance in the portfolio and the firm's preference for stable cash flow investments.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of February 5, 2026, Parsons shares were priced at $67.52, reflecting a 13% decline over the past year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 25.12 percentage points, suggesting market caution regarding its future growth prospects.
- Diversified Business Advantage: Parsons operates a dual-segment model in defense and infrastructure, ensuring that when defense spending contracts, infrastructure projects can compensate for revenue shortfalls, demonstrating resilience amid economic fluctuations.
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North American Construction Group to Release Q4 Financial Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: North American Construction Group will announce its Q4 financial results for 2025 on March 11, 2026, after market close, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Conference Call Timing: Following the earnings release, the company will hold a conference call and webcast on March 12, 2026, at 7:00 a.m. Mountain Time, aimed at providing investors with in-depth financial analysis and future outlook.
- Replay Availability: The conference call replay will be accessible until April 10, 2026, ensuring that investors who cannot attend can still obtain key information, thereby enhancing information accessibility and transparency.
- Company Background: North American Construction Group is a premier provider of heavy civil construction and mining services in Australia, Canada, and the U.S., boasting over 70 years of industry experience, which underscores its leadership position in the resource and infrastructure construction markets.
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North American Construction Group Acquires IMC for $115 Million
- Acquisition Deal: North American Construction Group has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Iron Mine Contracting for approximately CAD 115 million, which is expected to increase its earnings per share by about 20% in 2026, significantly enhancing its competitive edge in key mineral markets.
- Market Expansion: IMC boasts a strong order book exceeding CAD 1 billion across critical commodities like lithium, gold, and iron ore, which will elevate NACG's earnings exposure in Western Australia from 5% to 15%, strengthening its market position.
- Financing Structure: The acquisition will be funded through 65% senior-secured bank financing and 35% vendor-provided debt, with an estimated upfront payment of CAD 40 million, optimizing the company's capital structure.
- Strategic Synergy: The acquisition of IMC will create synergies with NACG's MacKellar Group, positioning them as a Tier 1 contractor in Australia, capable of executing complex projects and expanding their client base effectively.
See More
North American Construction Group Acquires IMC for $115 Million
- Acquisition Deal: North American Construction Group has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Iron Mine Contracting for approximately CAD 115 million, which is expected to increase earnings per share by about 20% in 2026, significantly enhancing the company's competitiveness in key mineral markets.
- Market Expansion: This acquisition will increase the revenue contribution from Western Australia from 5% to 15%, not only strengthening the company's position in rare earth and critical minerals but also enhancing its recognition as a Tier 1 contractor in Australia.
- Financial Structure Optimization: The transaction will be funded through 65% bank financing and 35% vendor debt, and is expected to positively impact the financial performance in 2026, driving overall contractual backlog to CAD 4.3 billion.
- Infrastructure Project Progress: The company aims to achieve 25% of total revenue from infrastructure by 2028, with current collaborations with Nuna Group advancing multiple northern projects, which are expected to provide strong support for future growth.
See More
Alpha Acquisitions: The Targets of This Discreet Value Fund
Aegis Financial Overview: Aegis Financial is a small, internally owned firm focused on deep value investments in small caps, cyclicals, and commodities, managed by Scott Barbee, who emphasizes long-term results and aligns interests with clients.
Third Quarter Portfolio Activity: In the third quarter, Aegis made significant portfolio adjustments, including new positions in Cenovus Energy and North American Construction Group, while increasing stakes in Precision Drilling, Vermilion Energy, and Galiano Gold, reflecting a disciplined value management approach.
Investment Philosophy: Aegis targets undervalued assets in sectors like energy and mining, capitalizing on market mispricing and maintaining a concentrated portfolio, while managing risk through strategic trims and exits, such as reducing their position in Equinox Gold and exiting Peabody Energy.
Market Positioning: The firm is focused on acquiring hard assets at deep discounts, leveraging cash flow and operational strength in commodity markets, and avoiding trends like AI, instead opting for a patient investment strategy that rewards long-term value realization.
See More
North American Construction Group Q4 Financial Results
- Earnings Decline: North American Construction Group reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of -C$0.14, indicating challenges in profitability that may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Revenue Decrease: The company's Q4 revenue stood at C$344.01 million, reflecting a 7.7% year-over-year decline, which suggests weakened market demand and increased competition that could pressure future performance.
- Historical Financial Data: Historical earnings data for North American Construction Group indicates that despite current challenges, the company has maintained a certain level of revenue over the past few quarters, demonstrating its market adaptability.
- Dividend Performance: The dividend scorecard for the company shows that despite the current financial downturn, attention should be paid to its future dividend policy to assess the long-term return potential for shareholders.
See More
Bastion Asset Management Acquires Stake in Parsons
- New Investment Position: Bastion Asset Management disclosed a new position in Parsons by acquiring 128,186 shares in Q4 2025, with an estimated transaction value of $8.04 million, indicating a strategic focus on defense and infrastructure sectors.
- Significant Holding Proportion: Following this transaction, Parsons represents 4.44% of Bastion's $181.13 million reportable U.S. equity assets, highlighting its importance in the portfolio and the firm's preference for stable cash flow investments.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of February 5, 2026, Parsons shares were priced at $67.52, reflecting a 13% decline over the past year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 25.12 percentage points, suggesting market caution regarding its future growth prospects.
- Diversified Business Advantage: Parsons operates a dual-segment model in defense and infrastructure, ensuring that when defense spending contracts, infrastructure projects can compensate for revenue shortfalls, demonstrating resilience amid economic fluctuations.
See More
North American Construction Group to Release Q4 Financial Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: North American Construction Group will announce its Q4 financial results for 2025 on March 11, 2026, after market close, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Conference Call Timing: Following the earnings release, the company will hold a conference call and webcast on March 12, 2026, at 7:00 a.m. Mountain Time, aimed at providing investors with in-depth financial analysis and future outlook.
- Replay Availability: The conference call replay will be accessible until April 10, 2026, ensuring that investors who cannot attend can still obtain key information, thereby enhancing information accessibility and transparency.
- Company Background: North American Construction Group is a premier provider of heavy civil construction and mining services in Australia, Canada, and the U.S., boasting over 70 years of industry experience, which underscores its leadership position in the resource and infrastructure construction markets.
See More
North American Construction Group Acquires IMC for $115 Million
- Acquisition Deal: North American Construction Group has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Iron Mine Contracting for approximately CAD 115 million, which is expected to increase its earnings per share by about 20% in 2026, significantly enhancing its competitive edge in key mineral markets.
- Market Expansion: IMC boasts a strong order book exceeding CAD 1 billion across critical commodities like lithium, gold, and iron ore, which will elevate NACG's earnings exposure in Western Australia from 5% to 15%, strengthening its market position.
- Financing Structure: The acquisition will be funded through 65% senior-secured bank financing and 35% vendor-provided debt, with an estimated upfront payment of CAD 40 million, optimizing the company's capital structure.
- Strategic Synergy: The acquisition of IMC will create synergies with NACG's MacKellar Group, positioning them as a Tier 1 contractor in Australia, capable of executing complex projects and expanding their client base effectively.
See More
North American Construction Group Acquires IMC for $115 Million
- Acquisition Deal: North American Construction Group has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Iron Mine Contracting for approximately CAD 115 million, which is expected to increase earnings per share by about 20% in 2026, significantly enhancing the company's competitiveness in key mineral markets.
- Market Expansion: This acquisition will increase the revenue contribution from Western Australia from 5% to 15%, not only strengthening the company's position in rare earth and critical minerals but also enhancing its recognition as a Tier 1 contractor in Australia.
- Financial Structure Optimization: The transaction will be funded through 65% bank financing and 35% vendor debt, and is expected to positively impact the financial performance in 2026, driving overall contractual backlog to CAD 4.3 billion.
- Infrastructure Project Progress: The company aims to achieve 25% of total revenue from infrastructure by 2028, with current collaborations with Nuna Group advancing multiple northern projects, which are expected to provide strong support for future growth.
See More
Alpha Acquisitions: The Targets of This Discreet Value Fund
Aegis Financial Overview: Aegis Financial is a small, internally owned firm focused on deep value investments in small caps, cyclicals, and commodities, managed by Scott Barbee, who emphasizes long-term results and aligns interests with clients.
Third Quarter Portfolio Activity: In the third quarter, Aegis made significant portfolio adjustments, including new positions in Cenovus Energy and North American Construction Group, while increasing stakes in Precision Drilling, Vermilion Energy, and Galiano Gold, reflecting a disciplined value management approach.
Investment Philosophy: Aegis targets undervalued assets in sectors like energy and mining, capitalizing on market mispricing and maintaining a concentrated portfolio, while managing risk through strategic trims and exits, such as reducing their position in Equinox Gold and exiting Peabody Energy.
Market Positioning: The firm is focused on acquiring hard assets at deep discounts, leveraging cash flow and operational strength in commodity markets, and avoiding trends like AI, instead opting for a patient investment strategy that rewards long-term value realization.
See More
