Warrior Met Coal Reports Record Q1 2026 Sales and Production
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy HCC?
Source: seekingalpha
Warrior Met Coal's stock fell 6.90% as it crossed below the 5-day SMA amid broader market gains.
The company reported record sales and production volumes for Q1 2026, achieving 3 million short tons in sales and 3.5 million short tons in production. Despite strong financial performance with revenues of $459 million and net income of $72 million, management expressed caution regarding future inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties that could affect costs and market dynamics.
This performance solidifies Warrior Met Coal's position in the premium metallurgical coal market, but the cautious outlook may weigh on investor sentiment moving forward.
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Analyst Views on HCC
Wall Street analysts forecast HCC stock price to fall
7 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 86.200
Low
72.00
Averages
83.00
High
100.00
Current: 86.200
Low
72.00
Averages
83.00
High
100.00
About HCC
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. is a producer and exporter of steelmaking coal, also known as hard coking coal (HCC), operating longwall operations in its underground mines based in Alabama. The Company's three operating mines: Mine No. 4, Mine No. 7 and Blue Creek. Mine No. 4 and Mine No. 7 are located approximately 300 miles from its export terminal at the Port of Mobile in Alabama. The Company sells its coal to a diversified customer base of blast furnace steel producers, primarily located in Europe, South America and Asia. The Company’s HCC, mined from the Southern Appalachian region of the United States, is characterized by low-to-high volatile matter, low sulfur, high fluidity, and high strength. Mine No. 4 and Mine No. 7 are located approximately 20 miles east of Tuscaloosa, Alabama and 30 miles southwest of Birmingham, Alabama. Its natural gas operations remove and sell natural gas from its owned and leased coal seams by reducing natural gas levels in our mines.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
UBS Lowers Target Price for Warrior Met Coal Inc. to $102 from $104
- Target Price Adjustment: Warrior Met Coal has cut its target price from $104 to $102.
- Market Impact: This adjustment may reflect changes in market conditions or company performance expectations.
See More
Warrior Met Coal Reports Record Q1 2026 Sales and Production Volumes
- Blue Creek Project Completion: Warrior Met Coal completed the final construction of the Blue Creek mine in Q1 2026, with project spending exceeding $1 billion and ahead of schedule, significantly enhancing production capacity and profitability, which is expected to drive annual performance growth.
- Record Sales and Production: The company achieved record sales volume of 3 million short tons and production of 3.5 million short tons in the first quarter, reflecting strong market performance and further solidifying its position in the premium metallurgical coal market.
- Strong Financial Performance: Warrior reported total revenues of $459 million, net income of $72 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $143 million, with an EBITDA margin of 31%, indicating robust profitability despite a negative operating cash flow of $12 million.
- Cautious Future Outlook: While reaffirming its 2026 guidance, management warned of inflationary cost pressures on materials and supplies that could increase costs by a few dollars per ton, and highlighted uncertainties from the Middle East conflict that may impact market dynamics, necessitating close monitoring.
See More
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
See More
Analyst Ratings and Investment Opportunities in Metals & Mining
- Investor Perspective: Despite HCC's low ranking among analysts, this does not necessarily imply poor stock performance; rather, it may indicate significant upside potential, attracting bullish investors to take a contrarian approach.
- Industry Performance Comparison: In the Metals & Mining sector, HCC is currently trading down approximately 5.3%, while competitors Rio Tinto and Freeport-McMoran are up about 4.1% and 6.8%, respectively, indicating a relative market pessimism towards HCC.
- Price History Analysis: A three-month price history chart comparing HCC's performance against RIO and FCX highlights HCC's relative underperformance in the industry, which may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Market Sentiment Impact: Analyst opinions can influence market sentiment; although HCC is underperforming, some investors may still choose to enter based on potential rebound opportunities, reflecting the complexity of market dynamics.
See More
Warrior Met Coal to Host Q1 2026 Investor Conference Call
- Conference Call Schedule: Warrior Met Coal will hold its first quarter 2026 investor conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET on April 30, 2026, with results released post-market close, ensuring timely updates for investors on company performance.
- Participation Details: Investors can join the call by dialing 1-844-340-9047 domestically or 1-412-858-5206 internationally 10 minutes prior to the start, facilitating direct communication with company executives for firsthand insights.
- Webcast and Replay Availability: The call will be webcast through the investor section of the company's website, with an archived replay accessible for those unable to attend live, enhancing information transparency for stakeholders.
- Company Overview: Warrior Met Coal is a U.S.-based supplier focused on environmentally and socially responsible non-thermal metallurgical coal for the global steel industry, operating as a low-cost producer to meet the demands of metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia.
See More
Coal Industry Faces Multiple Challenges Amid Declining Demand
- Declining Coal Demand: The EIA projects U.S. coal production will fall to 513.9 million short tons in 2026, down from 533 million in 2025, reflecting a trend of increasing renewable energy use and the systematic retirement of coal-fired power plants, posing long-term challenges for the coal industry.
- Impact of Environmental Policies: The U.S. Sustainability Plan aims for 100% carbon-free electricity by 2030, with coal consumption expected to decline by 7.4% and 2.9% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, further compressing market demand and forcing coal companies to restructure.
- Low Industry Ranking: The Zacks coal industry ranks 236 out of 243 industries, placing it in the bottom 3%, indicating a lack of confidence in the sector's earnings growth potential, with 2026 earnings estimates revised down by 54.7% to $2.46 per share.
- Increased Competition: As the costs of cleaner energy sources like natural gas, solar, and wind decline, coal-fired generation faces mounting competitive pressure, prompting utilities to adjust their generation portfolios to lower operating costs and comply with stricter emissions standards, leading to a sustained decline in coal demand.
See More
UBS Lowers Target Price for Warrior Met Coal Inc. to $102 from $104
- Target Price Adjustment: Warrior Met Coal has cut its target price from $104 to $102.
- Market Impact: This adjustment may reflect changes in market conditions or company performance expectations.
See More
Warrior Met Coal Reports Record Q1 2026 Sales and Production Volumes
- Blue Creek Project Completion: Warrior Met Coal completed the final construction of the Blue Creek mine in Q1 2026, with project spending exceeding $1 billion and ahead of schedule, significantly enhancing production capacity and profitability, which is expected to drive annual performance growth.
- Record Sales and Production: The company achieved record sales volume of 3 million short tons and production of 3.5 million short tons in the first quarter, reflecting strong market performance and further solidifying its position in the premium metallurgical coal market.
- Strong Financial Performance: Warrior reported total revenues of $459 million, net income of $72 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $143 million, with an EBITDA margin of 31%, indicating robust profitability despite a negative operating cash flow of $12 million.
- Cautious Future Outlook: While reaffirming its 2026 guidance, management warned of inflationary cost pressures on materials and supplies that could increase costs by a few dollars per ton, and highlighted uncertainties from the Middle East conflict that may impact market dynamics, necessitating close monitoring.
See More
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
See More
Analyst Ratings and Investment Opportunities in Metals & Mining
- Investor Perspective: Despite HCC's low ranking among analysts, this does not necessarily imply poor stock performance; rather, it may indicate significant upside potential, attracting bullish investors to take a contrarian approach.
- Industry Performance Comparison: In the Metals & Mining sector, HCC is currently trading down approximately 5.3%, while competitors Rio Tinto and Freeport-McMoran are up about 4.1% and 6.8%, respectively, indicating a relative market pessimism towards HCC.
- Price History Analysis: A three-month price history chart comparing HCC's performance against RIO and FCX highlights HCC's relative underperformance in the industry, which may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Market Sentiment Impact: Analyst opinions can influence market sentiment; although HCC is underperforming, some investors may still choose to enter based on potential rebound opportunities, reflecting the complexity of market dynamics.
See More
Warrior Met Coal to Host Q1 2026 Investor Conference Call
- Conference Call Schedule: Warrior Met Coal will hold its first quarter 2026 investor conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET on April 30, 2026, with results released post-market close, ensuring timely updates for investors on company performance.
- Participation Details: Investors can join the call by dialing 1-844-340-9047 domestically or 1-412-858-5206 internationally 10 minutes prior to the start, facilitating direct communication with company executives for firsthand insights.
- Webcast and Replay Availability: The call will be webcast through the investor section of the company's website, with an archived replay accessible for those unable to attend live, enhancing information transparency for stakeholders.
- Company Overview: Warrior Met Coal is a U.S.-based supplier focused on environmentally and socially responsible non-thermal metallurgical coal for the global steel industry, operating as a low-cost producer to meet the demands of metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia.
See More
Coal Industry Faces Multiple Challenges Amid Declining Demand
- Declining Coal Demand: The EIA projects U.S. coal production will fall to 513.9 million short tons in 2026, down from 533 million in 2025, reflecting a trend of increasing renewable energy use and the systematic retirement of coal-fired power plants, posing long-term challenges for the coal industry.
- Impact of Environmental Policies: The U.S. Sustainability Plan aims for 100% carbon-free electricity by 2030, with coal consumption expected to decline by 7.4% and 2.9% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, further compressing market demand and forcing coal companies to restructure.
- Low Industry Ranking: The Zacks coal industry ranks 236 out of 243 industries, placing it in the bottom 3%, indicating a lack of confidence in the sector's earnings growth potential, with 2026 earnings estimates revised down by 54.7% to $2.46 per share.
- Increased Competition: As the costs of cleaner energy sources like natural gas, solar, and wind decline, coal-fired generation faces mounting competitive pressure, prompting utilities to adjust their generation portfolios to lower operating costs and comply with stricter emissions standards, leading to a sustained decline in coal demand.
See More
