Union Pacific's Merger with Norfolk Southern Gains Momentum
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 14 2025
0mins
Union Pacific Corp (UNP) has seen its stock rise by 3.03%, reaching a 52-week high amid a strong transport sector recovery.
The recent progress in Union Pacific's $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern has generated significant market interest, with the deal's spread narrowing following comments from President Trump. The merger is expected to receive regulatory approval by early 2027, potentially controlling about 39% of the rail freight market share, which could reshape the industry landscape.
This merger not only enhances Union Pacific's competitive position but also reflects the overall strength of the transport sector, which has surged 43% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. Investors are optimistic about the future growth prospects of the company as the merger progresses.
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Analyst Views on UNP
Wall Street analysts forecast UNP stock price to fall
15 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 267.000
Low
245.00
Averages
265.27
High
289.00
Current: 267.000
Low
245.00
Averages
265.27
High
289.00
About UNP
Union Pacific Corporation, through its principal operating company, Union Pacific Railroad Company, connects over 23 states in the western two-thirds of the country by rail, providing a critical link in the global supply chain. It maintains coordinated schedules with other rail carriers to move freight to and from the Atlantic Coast, the Pacific Coast, the Southeast, the Southwest, Canada, and Mexico. The railroad’s diversified business mix includes bulk, industrial, and premium. Its Bulk shipments consist of grain and grain products, fertilizer, food and refrigerated, and coal and renewables. The Industrial shipments consist of several categories, including construction, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products (primarily waste, salt, and roofing), metals and ores, petroleum, liquid petroleum gases (LPG), soda ash, and sand. Its Premium shipments include finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Stock Performance Gap: As of May 2026, Berkshire Hathaway's B shares lagged the S&P 500 by 16.3 percentage points year-to-date, marking the largest gap this year, highlighting the stark contrast between the market's enthusiasm for tech stocks and Berkshire's conservative investment strategy.
- Cash Reserve Status: Berkshire reported cash reserves of $397.4 billion as of March 31, up 6.5% from the end of last year, indicating a robust financial position amid market volatility, yet limiting its opportunities for investment in the rapidly growing AI sector.
- AI Investment Dynamics: New CEO Greg Abel tripled the company's stake in Alphabet to nearly $22 billion in Q1, making it the fifth-largest equity holding, although overall AI exposure remains relatively small, reflecting a cautious approach towards emerging technologies.
- Rail Merger Regulatory Delay: The U.S. Surface Transportation Board has paused its review of the proposed $85 billion merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, requesting additional information, which could delay a final decision until fall 2027; Berkshire's BNSF has opposed the merger, citing anti-competitive concerns.
See More
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- Market Cap Comparison: Arista Networks (Ticker: ANET) boasts a market capitalization of $195.52 billion, significantly surpassing Union Pacific (Ticker: UNP) at $158.52 billion, indicating differing valuations by the market that could influence investor choices.
- Investor Misconceptions: Many novice investors mistakenly judge company value solely by stock price, yet market capitalization provides a more accurate basis for comparison, helping investors avoid erroneous decisions and potentially enhancing overall portfolio performance.
- Market Positioning Impact: Market cap not only affects a company's ranking among peers but also determines which mutual funds and ETFs are willing to hold the stock; for instance, large-cap funds typically focus on companies valued over $10 billion, which may limit financing opportunities for smaller firms.
- Stock Performance: As of last Friday's close, ANET's stock rose approximately 2.5%, while UNP fell about 1.5%, reflecting differing market expectations for the future performance of the two companies, which could further influence investor confidence and decision-making.
See More
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- Merger Review Paused: The U.S. Surface Transportation Board has paused the merger review process for Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, including environmental assessments, requiring additional information from the companies by July 27, 2026, to ensure thorough evaluation and public engagement.
- Supplemental Information Request: The Board highlighted several unclear or underdeveloped aspects of the revised application, requesting additional details on competitive impacts, shipper access, and public benefits to ensure the merger aligns with public interest.
- Environmental Impact Statement: The Board confirmed that an Environmental Impact Statement will be prepared in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act, planning to hold at least 12 in-person public meetings and several virtual sessions to gather public input during the environmental review process.
- Communication Waiver Denied: The Board denied the applicants' request to waive restrictions on ex parte communications, stating that such a waiver at this stage could complicate the record-building process, thereby affecting the transparency and fairness of the merger review.
See More
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- Merger Review Freeze: Canadian National Railway (CN) commends the Surface Transportation Board (STB) for freezing the merger review of Union Pacific (UP) and Norfolk Southern (NS), requiring them to provide additional information, indicating that the merger application still fails to meet public interest standards and may reduce competition.
- Information Gaps: The STB highlighted significant gaps in UP and NS's amended application, including unresolved competitive harms and inadequate market share analyses, failing to present effective measures to enhance competition, which reflects a lack of clarity and detail in their merger proposal.
- Competitive Risk Warning: The STB warned that the merger could reshape the American rail network, concentrating control over approximately 40% of U.S. freight rail traffic, posing significant downstream risks to supply chains, a concern echoed by CN.
- Insufficient Remedies: The remedies proposed by UP and NS are deemed narrow and temporary, unable to offset the competitive harms of the merger, particularly as their promoted pricing program applies to only a tiny fraction of rail traffic, potentially leaving many shippers facing higher shipping costs.
See More
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- Chipmaker Stock Surge: Arm Holdings' shares jumped over 15% after Mizuho raised its price target from $290 to $360, anticipating strong growth from internal CPU demand in 2027, which boosts market confidence in its future performance.
- Rail Merger Halted: Shares of Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific fell about 4% after the Surface Transportation Board halted its review of the proposed $71.5 billion merger, indicating regulatory concerns that could impact future market consolidation.
- Cloud Platform Performance: Snowflake's stock soared 37%, with expectations for a second-quarter adjusted operating margin of 12.5%, exceeding analysts' forecast of 11.9%, demonstrating its strong growth potential in the cloud computing market.
See More
Railroad Stocks Underperform on Thursday
- Sector Decline: Railroad stocks collectively fell by approximately 1.5% on Thursday, indicating a weakening market confidence in the sector, which could negatively impact investor expectations for future earnings.
- Norfolk Southern Underperformance: Norfolk Southern's shares dropped by about 4.8%, making it the worst performer in the industry, suggesting potential operational or market challenges facing the company.
- Union Pacific Decline: Union Pacific's stock fell by around 4%, further exacerbating the overall weakness in the railroad sector, which may lead investors to reassess their investment strategies.
- Market Sentiment Impact: The decline in railroad stocks contrasts with broader market trends, potentially raising concerns about economic slowdown and affecting investment inflows into related industries.
See More
