Shares of Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA.O) experienced a notable uptick, crossing above its 5-day simple moving average (SMA) as the stock closed at $497.72, despite a 1.9% decline on the day. This technical breakout signals a potential shift in momentum, even as the company faces scrutiny over its valuation, with analysts suggesting it may be overvalued by 37.7% based on discounted cash flow models. The recent trading activity has been marked by a significant volume of options, with 2,610 contracts traded, indicating heightened investor interest ahead of the upcoming earnings report. Investors are anticipating Ulta's earnings release, projecting a year-over-year decline in earnings but an increase in revenue, reflecting the mixed signals in the retail sector following Target's disappointing sales figures. As Ulta navigates these challenges, its performance remains under close watch, particularly in light of its recent pullback and the broader market dynamics.
Wall Street analysts forecast ULTA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ULTA is 647.83 USD with a low forecast of 450.00 USD and a high forecast of 780.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
22 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ULTA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ULTA is 647.83 USD with a low forecast of 450.00 USD and a high forecast of 780.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 661.340
Low
450.00
Averages
647.83
High
780.00
Current: 661.340
Low
450.00
Averages
647.83
High
780.00
Piper Sandler
Overweight
maintain
$615 -> $775
2026-01-27
New
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$615 -> $775
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Ulta Beauty to $775 from $615 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With a solid Holiday and square-footage growth accelerating, the firm estimates Space NK sales will be up high 20's in 2026, which along with strength at core, should yield upside to sellside estimates. For Q4 2025, Piper models 5% comparable store sales, ahead of guidance for 2.5%-3.5%. The firm cites momentum in the business and the category for the price target increase.
TD Cowen
Buy
maintain
$725 -> $775
2026-01-21
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$725 -> $775
2026-01-21
maintain
Buy
Reason
TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on Ulta Beauty to $775 from $725 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the beauty space as part of a Q4 preview. TD sees the most upside potential at Estee Lauder on improving China trends and sustained U.S. momentum. Beauty trends appear solid, which should drive revenue upside for all companies, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ULTA
Unlock Now
Raymond James
Outperform -> Strong Buy
upgrade
$605 -> $790
2026-01-21
Reason
Raymond James
Price Target
$605 -> $790
2026-01-21
upgrade
Outperform -> Strong Buy
Reason
Raymond James upgraded Ulta Beauty to Strong Buy from Outperform with a price target of $790, up from $605. The firm sees "outsized growth" in fiscal 2026 for the company after a period of heavy investments. Ulta will compound "steadily in a faster-growth category," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Raymond James says the company has multiple initiatives to drive faster growth.
Oppenheimer
Outperform
upgrade
$675 -> $750
2026-01-20
Reason
Oppenheimer
Price Target
$675 -> $750
2026-01-20
upgrade
Outperform
Reason
Oppenheimer raised the firm's price target on Ulta Beauty to $750 from $675 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Based on its work, the firm is lifting its price target primarily reflecting the recent re-rating in discretionary names and its increased confidence in Ulta's FY26 newness pipeline with the upcoming Rare Beauty launch. In addition to newness, Oppenheimer continues to see a plethora of drivers to sustain top-line momentum from merchandising efforts to digital initiatives. The firm also remains very bullish on CEO Kecia Steelman's leadership and believes the fruits of her team's efforts are likely to continue to build. Ulta remains a top pick for Oppenheimer.
About ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a specialty United States beauty retailer and the premier beauty destination for cosmetics, fragrance, skincare products, haircare products and salon services. The Company operates approximately 1,451 retail stores across 50 states and distributes products through its Website, which includes a collection of tips, tutorials, and social content. The Company’s business includes a differentiated assortment of approximately 29,000 beauty products across a variety of categories and price points, as well as a variety of beauty services, including salon services, in more than 1,400 stores predominantly located in convenient, high-traffic locations. It also offers digital experiences delivered through its Website, Ulta.com, and its mobile applications. The Company’s brands include Ulta Beauty Collection, about-face, Ariana Grande, CHANEL, FENTY BEAUTY by Rihanna, It Cosmetics, LolaVie, OUAI, PAT McGRATH LABS, Tula, and NYX Professional Makeup.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
