Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp falls amid market weakness
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 08 2025
0mins
Should l Buy TFPM?
Source: 6-K
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp's stock declined by 5.04% as it crossed below its 5-day SMA, reflecting a challenging trading environment.
The decline in TFPM's stock price comes amid broader market weakness, with the Nasdaq-100 down 0.54% and the S&P 500 down 0.15%. This suggests a sector rotation, as investors may be reallocating their portfolios away from precious metals amid current market conditions.
Investors should monitor the overall market trends and sector performance, as these factors could continue to influence TFPM's stock movement in the near term.
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Analyst Views on TFPM
Wall Street analysts forecast TFPM stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 35.940
Low
31.00
Averages
37.63
High
47.55
Current: 35.940
Low
31.00
Averages
37.63
High
47.55
About TFPM
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is a precious metal streaming and royalty company. It offers investors exposure to gold and silver from a total of 237 assets, consisting of 17 streams and 220 royalties, primarily from the Americas and Australia. These streams and royalties are tied to mining assets at various stages of the mine life cycle, including about 30 producing mines and 207 development and exploration stage projects. It has a diversified portfolio of properties in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d’Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa and the United States. Its diversified portfolio of streams and royalties provides exposure to production from a suite of long-life mining assets, including the Northparkes copper-gold mine in Australia (Evolution Mining), the Cerro Lindo polymetallic mine in Peru (Nexa), the Fosterville gold mine in Australia (Agnico Eagle), the Buritica gold mine in Colombia (Zijin) and the Impala Bafokeng Operations in South Africa (Implats).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Triple Flag Precious Metals reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.33, exceeding expectations by $0.01, which highlights the company's ongoing profitability and strong performance in the precious metals sector.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company achieved revenue of $118.9 million in Q4, representing a 60.2% year-over-year increase and surpassing estimates by $3.98 million, indicating effective sales strategies and robust market demand that solidify its market position.
- Future Sales Guidance: The 2026 sales guidance is projected between 295,000 and 105,000 GEOs, reflecting the company's optimistic outlook for future markets and its strategic planning in resource management and market expansion.
- Cost Control and Tax Rate: General administration costs are expected to range from $30 million to $32 million, with an Australian cash tax rate around 25%, which will help the company maintain profitability while effectively controlling operational costs.
See More
Triple Flag Precious Metals Declares Quarterly Dividend
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Triple Flag Precious Metals declares a quarterly dividend of CAD 0.0575 per share, consistent with previous distributions, reflecting the company's stable cash flow and profitability, which enhances investor confidence.
- Dividend Payment Timeline: The dividend is payable on March 16, with a record date of March 2 and an ex-dividend date also on March 2, ensuring shareholders receive their returns promptly, thereby strengthening the relationship between the company and its investors.
- Strong Financial Performance: Triple Flag exceeded market expectations in its latest earnings report, demonstrating robust revenue and profit growth, indicating the company's competitive strength and market position in the precious metals sector continues to improve.
- Future Outlook: The company has initiated its FY26 outlook, anticipating continued growth momentum, which is likely to attract more investor interest in its long-term development potential.
See More
Triple Flag Reports 2025 Financial Results and Dividend Declaration
- Strong Financial Performance: In 2025, Triple Flag achieved revenues of $388.7 million, a 44% increase year-over-year, with Q4 revenue reaching $118.9 million, indicating robust performance in the gold and silver markets, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns further.
- Growth in GEOs: The total Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEOs) for 2025 reached 113,237, a 0.5% increase from 2024, demonstrating significant progress in resource development and production efficiency, thereby strengthening future growth potential.
- Generous Dividend Payout: The company declared a cash dividend of $0.0575 per share to be paid on March 16, 2026, reflecting strong cash flow and a commitment to shareholders, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Debt-Free with Strong Liquidity: Triple Flag is currently debt-free with over $1 billion in available liquidity, and in conjunction with its leading position in a rising gold and silver price environment, the company plans to continue reinvesting cash flow to drive per-share growth, showcasing robust financial health.
See More
Triple Flag Precious Metals Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 18
- Earnings Announcement Date: Triple Flag Precious Metals is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 18 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.32, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 77.8%, which could further solidify its profitability in the precious metals sector.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: The anticipated Q4 revenue is projected to reach $114.92 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 54.9%, indicating strong sales performance amid robust market demand, potentially driving stock price appreciation.
- Historical Performance Metrics: Over the past two years, Triple Flag has successfully beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 63% of the time, enhancing investor confidence through its consistent ability to exceed expectations.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen four upward revisions with no downward adjustments, while revenue estimates have experienced one upward revision, reflecting analysts' optimistic outlook on the company's future performance, likely attracting more investor interest.
See More
Evolution Mining Approves Multiple Growth Projects
- Capital Investment Plans: Evolution Mining has approved the development of the E22 block cave at the Northparkes mine with a capital investment of $545 million, establishing a long-life, low-cost bulk underground mining operation that is expected to significantly enhance production capacity and economic benefits.
- Flotation Project Upgrade: The company also approved a A$75 million coarse particle flotation project aimed at upgrading flotation and dewatering areas, which is expected to increase copper recovery by approximately 2% at current throughput rates, further enhancing resource utilization efficiency.
- New Agreement Signed: Evolution Mining entered into a restated metal purchase and sale agreement with Triple Flag Precious Metals, securing additional upfront capital support to facilitate the development of the E22 block cave while reducing streaming rates for the E44 open pit deposit, unlocking further development potential.
- Significant Profit Growth: The half-year report ending December 31 revealed a record underlying profit of A$785 million, more than doubling year-on-year, with analysts noting that this growth directly challenges the narrative of the company being expensive and lacking growth, showcasing a strong business outlook.
See More
Triple Flag Partners with Evolution Mining for E44 Gold Deposit Development
- Funding Commitment: Triple Flag International has agreed to fund $84.3 million to Evolution Mining in Q4 2026 for the development of the E44 Gold Deposit, laying the groundwork for future gold and silver deliveries.
- Delivery Guarantees: Evolution has committed to a minimum delivery of 45,052 ounces of gold and 446,200 ounces of silver to Triple Flag from 2030 to 2037, significantly enhancing Triple Flag's revenue stability and market competitiveness.
- Resource Potential: The E44 Gold Deposit has a resource of 8.7 million tonnes grading 1.34 g/t Au, which is expected to yield substantial gold output for Triple Flag, further solidifying its position in the precious metals market.
- Strategic Development: This agreement not only provides funding support for the future development of the Northparkes mine but also creates opportunities for potential mine expansion and resource exploration, demonstrating Triple Flag's strategic vision for long-term growth.
See More
Triple Flag Precious Metals Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Triple Flag Precious Metals reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.33, exceeding expectations by $0.01, which highlights the company's ongoing profitability and strong performance in the precious metals sector.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company achieved revenue of $118.9 million in Q4, representing a 60.2% year-over-year increase and surpassing estimates by $3.98 million, indicating effective sales strategies and robust market demand that solidify its market position.
- Future Sales Guidance: The 2026 sales guidance is projected between 295,000 and 105,000 GEOs, reflecting the company's optimistic outlook for future markets and its strategic planning in resource management and market expansion.
- Cost Control and Tax Rate: General administration costs are expected to range from $30 million to $32 million, with an Australian cash tax rate around 25%, which will help the company maintain profitability while effectively controlling operational costs.
See More
Triple Flag Precious Metals Declares Quarterly Dividend
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Triple Flag Precious Metals declares a quarterly dividend of CAD 0.0575 per share, consistent with previous distributions, reflecting the company's stable cash flow and profitability, which enhances investor confidence.
- Dividend Payment Timeline: The dividend is payable on March 16, with a record date of March 2 and an ex-dividend date also on March 2, ensuring shareholders receive their returns promptly, thereby strengthening the relationship between the company and its investors.
- Strong Financial Performance: Triple Flag exceeded market expectations in its latest earnings report, demonstrating robust revenue and profit growth, indicating the company's competitive strength and market position in the precious metals sector continues to improve.
- Future Outlook: The company has initiated its FY26 outlook, anticipating continued growth momentum, which is likely to attract more investor interest in its long-term development potential.
See More
Triple Flag Reports 2025 Financial Results and Dividend Declaration
- Strong Financial Performance: In 2025, Triple Flag achieved revenues of $388.7 million, a 44% increase year-over-year, with Q4 revenue reaching $118.9 million, indicating robust performance in the gold and silver markets, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns further.
- Growth in GEOs: The total Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEOs) for 2025 reached 113,237, a 0.5% increase from 2024, demonstrating significant progress in resource development and production efficiency, thereby strengthening future growth potential.
- Generous Dividend Payout: The company declared a cash dividend of $0.0575 per share to be paid on March 16, 2026, reflecting strong cash flow and a commitment to shareholders, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Debt-Free with Strong Liquidity: Triple Flag is currently debt-free with over $1 billion in available liquidity, and in conjunction with its leading position in a rising gold and silver price environment, the company plans to continue reinvesting cash flow to drive per-share growth, showcasing robust financial health.
See More
Triple Flag Precious Metals Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 18
- Earnings Announcement Date: Triple Flag Precious Metals is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 18 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.32, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 77.8%, which could further solidify its profitability in the precious metals sector.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: The anticipated Q4 revenue is projected to reach $114.92 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 54.9%, indicating strong sales performance amid robust market demand, potentially driving stock price appreciation.
- Historical Performance Metrics: Over the past two years, Triple Flag has successfully beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 63% of the time, enhancing investor confidence through its consistent ability to exceed expectations.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen four upward revisions with no downward adjustments, while revenue estimates have experienced one upward revision, reflecting analysts' optimistic outlook on the company's future performance, likely attracting more investor interest.
See More
Evolution Mining Approves Multiple Growth Projects
- Capital Investment Plans: Evolution Mining has approved the development of the E22 block cave at the Northparkes mine with a capital investment of $545 million, establishing a long-life, low-cost bulk underground mining operation that is expected to significantly enhance production capacity and economic benefits.
- Flotation Project Upgrade: The company also approved a A$75 million coarse particle flotation project aimed at upgrading flotation and dewatering areas, which is expected to increase copper recovery by approximately 2% at current throughput rates, further enhancing resource utilization efficiency.
- New Agreement Signed: Evolution Mining entered into a restated metal purchase and sale agreement with Triple Flag Precious Metals, securing additional upfront capital support to facilitate the development of the E22 block cave while reducing streaming rates for the E44 open pit deposit, unlocking further development potential.
- Significant Profit Growth: The half-year report ending December 31 revealed a record underlying profit of A$785 million, more than doubling year-on-year, with analysts noting that this growth directly challenges the narrative of the company being expensive and lacking growth, showcasing a strong business outlook.
See More
Triple Flag Partners with Evolution Mining for E44 Gold Deposit Development
- Funding Commitment: Triple Flag International has agreed to fund $84.3 million to Evolution Mining in Q4 2026 for the development of the E44 Gold Deposit, laying the groundwork for future gold and silver deliveries.
- Delivery Guarantees: Evolution has committed to a minimum delivery of 45,052 ounces of gold and 446,200 ounces of silver to Triple Flag from 2030 to 2037, significantly enhancing Triple Flag's revenue stability and market competitiveness.
- Resource Potential: The E44 Gold Deposit has a resource of 8.7 million tonnes grading 1.34 g/t Au, which is expected to yield substantial gold output for Triple Flag, further solidifying its position in the precious metals market.
- Strategic Development: This agreement not only provides funding support for the future development of the Northparkes mine but also creates opportunities for potential mine expansion and resource exploration, demonstrating Triple Flag's strategic vision for long-term growth.
See More
