Sweetgreen's Q1 Sales Decline Raises Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 03 2026
0mins
Source: Benzinga
Sweetgreen Inc. stock rose 4.94% and reached a 20-day high despite broader market declines, with the Nasdaq-100 down 0.82% and the S&P 500 down 0.33%.
The stock's increase comes amid a challenging earnings report where Sweetgreen's Q1 comparable sales fell 12.8%, and overall revenue dropped to $161.5 million, missing estimates. The company faces significant customer attrition, with average annual sales per store declining from $2.91 million to $2.57 million. Although management anticipates a cautious outlook for the year, there is optimism regarding new lower-priced wraps that could attract customers and potentially improve sales.
Despite the positive stock movement, the underlying challenges in the fast-casual salad market raise concerns about Sweetgreen's long-term profitability and growth potential.
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Analyst Views on SG
Wall Street analysts forecast SG stock price to fall
14 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
10 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 9.780
Low
5.00
Averages
7.57
High
10.00
Current: 9.780
Low
5.00
Averages
7.57
High
10.00
About SG
Sweetgreen, Inc. is a restaurant and lifestyle brand that serves healthy food at scale. The Company has designed its menu to be customizable and convenient to empower its customers to make healthier choices for both lunch and dinner. The Company's core menu features approximately 13 signature items which are offered year-round in all of its locations, including its new steak plate. In addition to its core menu items, its single most popular item is the custom salad or bowl, which can include combinations from 40-plus ingredients as well as its made-from-scratch dressings. On its Owned Digital Channels, it offers exclusive menu items, including seasonal digital exclusives and collections relevant to each customer. It has a five-channel model that is designed to help its customers to order. The Company's five-channel model includes Pick-Up, Native Delivery, Outpost and Catering, In-Store, and Marketplace. It has approximately 250 restaurants across the country.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Same-Store Sales Growth: Cava leads with a 9.7% same-store sales growth, defying the trend of declining traffic in the restaurant sector, which is expected to enhance its long-term profit potential significantly.
- Profitability Comparison: Cava's restaurant-level operating margin stands at 25.1%, closely trailing Chipotle's 23.7%, indicating that while Chipotle maintains a stronger consolidated margin, Cava's rapid growth positions it favorably for future expansion opportunities.
- Valuation Discrepancy: Cava's price-to-sales ratio of 7.4 significantly exceeds Chipotle's 3.6 and Sweetgreen's 1.6, reflecting investor confidence in Cava's growth potential, making it a more attractive investment despite its higher valuation.
- Market Outlook: With current revenues of $1.3 billion, if Cava can expand to match Chipotle's scale over the next decade, its revenue could soar to $15 billion or more, highlighting its substantial market potential and growth trajectory.
See More
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- Valuation Discrepancy: Cava's price-to-sales ratio stands at 7.4, compared to Chipotle's 3.6 and Sweetgreen's 1.6, reflecting the market's emphasis on Cava's growth potential, making it a more attractive investment despite its higher current valuation.
- Investment Decision Recommendation: Given Sweetgreen's financial struggles, investors should avoid its stock, while between Chipotle and Cava, the latter's robust growth potential makes it more appealing, even as Chipotle retains room for global expansion.
See More
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- Rating Upgrade: JPMorgan upgraded SG's stock from Neutral to Overweight, highlighting the company's aggressive approach under new management in launching popular new products, particularly wraps that have gained traction.
- Stock Surge: Following the upgrade, SG shares rose over 11% and are on track to open near a one-year high, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's transformation and reflecting optimistic market expectations for future growth.
- Management Changes: SG has undergone significant C-suite changes in recent months, appointing Ryan Slemons as Chief Development Officer to oversee real estate and facilities management, demonstrating the company's commitment to strategic execution.
- Market Sentiment: While Wall Street maintains a largely neutral stance on SG, retail sentiment on Stocktwits has been extremely bullish, with many users believing that the new product launches could save the company, indicating positive market outlook for its future.
See More
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- Brand Transformation Upgrade: J.P. Morgan analyst Rahul Krotthapalli highlights that Sweetgreen's embrace of menu innovation and elevated operating standards has led to an upgrade from Neutral to Overweight, with a 62% price target increase to $13, representing a 44% upside from Thursday's close.
- Operational Strategy Shift: The management has pivoted from relying on the heavy technology of the Spyce robot to a comprehensive retraining of operational staff and a more aggressive adoption of new products that consumers genuinely desire, aiming to enhance ingredient and process integrity while optimizing supply chain and in-store operations.
- Brand Image Revitalization: Under the new Chief Commercial Officer, Sweetgreen is focused on re-establishing the brand's
See More
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- Event Impact Analysis: RBC Capital Markets anticipates the World Cup will serve as a positive catalyst for the restaurant sector, despite recent reports of softer tourism trends, with analyst Logan Reich highlighting chains like Domino's Pizza and Wingstop as key beneficiaries, particularly those linked to group occasions.
- McDonald's Sponsorship Advantage: As the official restaurant sponsor, McDonald's is expected to capture a larger market share, with management believing that the North American-hosted World Cup will benefit the U.S. segment more than previous tournaments, especially given their global marketing campaign during the 2022 event that drove delivery sales increases in major markets.
- Geographic Advantage: Analysis indicates that Sweetgreen has 27.5% of its brand locations within a 10-mile radius of World Cup city centers, while CAVA follows at 13.8%, significantly above the restaurant sector average of 5.4%, positioning these brands for substantial sales boosts during the tournament.
- Future Growth Potential: CAVA outlines plans for 75-77 net new openings in FY2026 and anticipates same-restaurant sales growth of 4.5%-6.5%, indicating long-term growth potential driven by the World Cup, although market uncertainties regarding its valuation remain.
See More
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- CPI Impact: The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.8% year-over-year, intensifying consumer income pressure and leading to weaker sales in the restaurant sector, particularly for Applebee's and Domino's, highlighting the direct impact of high inflation on dining expenditures.
- Rising Oil Prices: Brent crude oil prices have surged to around $107, with national gas prices exceeding $4.50 per gallon, up over 50% since late February, squeezing household budgets and posing greater challenges for the restaurant industry.
- Sales Fluctuations: Despite a 2.3% year-over-year decline in overall industry traffic, McDonald's reported a 3.7% sales increase, indicating a shift in consumer choices amid high inflation and intensifying competition between fast food and sit-down dining.
- Kura Sushi Volatility: Kura Sushi's stock has experienced 39 moves greater than 5% in the past year; although today's drop of 5.3% suggests market significance, it does not fundamentally alter perceptions of the business.
See More
