Rigetti Computing Faces Grim Outlook Amid Stock Price Decline
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 29 2024
0mins
Should l Buy RGTI?
Rigetti Computing's stock has fallen by 5.00%, crossing below the 5-day SMA, reflecting a challenging market environment for quantum computing companies.
Recent news highlights that Rigetti's shares are currently priced at $16, with a market cap exceeding $5.3 billion despite only reporting $7.5 million in revenue over the last 12 months. Analysts express concerns about the disconnect between the company's valuation and its actual business fundamentals, indicating significant risks for investors. The uncertain profitability outlook, coupled with ongoing cash burn, raises alarms about the company's future viability.
The implications of this situation suggest that investors may need to reassess their positions in Rigetti Computing, especially given the advice to consider selling stocks with unclear future prospects. The quantum computing sector is facing scrutiny, and Rigetti's ability to navigate these challenges will be crucial for its long-term success.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy RGTI?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on RGTI
Wall Street analysts forecast RGTI stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 17.010
Low
30.00
Averages
39.75
High
51.00
Current: 17.010
Low
30.00
Averages
39.75
High
51.00
About RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc. is a full-stack quantum computing company. The Company operates quantum computers over the cloud and serves global enterprise, government, and research clients through its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services platform. The Company’s quantum-classical infrastructure provides high-performance integration with public and private clouds for practical quantum computing. It has developed a multi-chip quantum processor for scalable quantum computing systems. Through the Company’s Quantum Computing as a Service (QCaaS) platform, its machines can be integrated into any public, private or hybrid cloud. It is also engaged in the sale of quantum processing units (QPUs) and custom computing components, and development contracts and other services. Its QPUs contain fabricated silicon-based chips featuring superconducting qubits. The Company designs and manufactures its chips in-house at Fab-1, an integrated quantum device manufacturing facility.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Middle East Conflict Drives Oil Prices Surge
- Oil Price Surge: The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has driven crude oil prices close to $90 per barrel within a week, marking one of the sharpest weekly gains in years, which directly threatens global energy supply and rattles investor confidence.
- Labor Market Deterioration: The U.S. labor market unexpectedly lost 92,000 nonfarm jobs in February, exacerbating concerns about weakening economic momentum and undermining market confidence in future economic prospects.
- Energy Stocks Rise: The surge in energy costs quickly impacted equity markets, lifting energy stocks while severely hitting fuel-sensitive sectors like airlines and cruise operators, as investors feared rising jet fuel prices would squeeze margins.
- Fragile Market Sentiment: The geopolitical shock has added to already fragile market sentiment, prompting traders to reassess inflation risks associated with rising oil prices and supply disruptions, leading to increased overall market volatility.
See More
Wall Street Excited About Growth Potential of Quantum Pure-Play Companies Like IonQ
- Quantum Computing Significance: BofA Securities analysts have identified quantum computing as a pivotal technological advancement, referring to it as “the next fire moment.”
- Historical Impact: This development is considered one of the most significant in hundreds of thousands of years, highlighting its potential to transform various industries.
See More
Rigetti Computing Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Significant Technical Progress: Rigetti achieved a 99.9% 2-qubit gate fidelity at a 28-nanosecond gate speed in Q4 2025, showcasing the technological advantages of its ProDrive platform, which marks a continued advancement in quantum computing and enhances its competitive position in the market.
- Growing Commercial Orders: The company secured an $8.4 million order from India's C-DAC for a 108-qubit quantum computer scheduled for deployment in the second half of 2026, along with $5.7 million in orders for two 9-qubit Novera systems, indicating strong international demand for its products.
- Financial Performance Fluctuations: Revenue for Q4 2025 was $1.9 million, down from $2.3 million in Q4 2024, with gross margins declining from 44% to 35%, reflecting cost pressures and market challenges faced during the company's expansion.
- Clear Future Outlook: Management anticipates launching a 150-qubit system by the end of 2026 with a target of 99.7% 2-qubit gate fidelity, demonstrating the company's strong confidence in technical execution and market expansion, aiming to solidify its leadership in the quantum computing sector.
See More
Tech Stocks Rebound While Airline Shares Decline
- Tech Sector Recovery: The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rose over 2%, with Salesforce up 5% and Microsoft and Oracle each gaining 1%, indicating a rebound in investor confidence towards tech companies previously impacted by AI fears, suggesting a potential improvement in market sentiment.
- Travel Stocks Surge: Expedia's shares jumped nearly 11% and Booking Holdings rose about 8% as OpenAI scaled back its direct shopping plans within ChatGPT, alleviating concerns over potential disruptions to booking sites, signaling a recovery in market confidence in the travel sector.
- Airline Stocks Under Pressure: United Airlines and Delta Air Lines saw their shares tumble 7% as oil prices resumed their ascent, with Southwest Airlines down over 6%, reflecting the direct impact of oil price volatility on the airline industry, which may lead to increased operating costs and profit compression.
- Victoria's Secret Plummets: The lingerie retailer's stock fell 15% after projecting free cash flow of $220 million to $250 million by January 2027, significantly below analysts' consensus estimate of $301.9 million, highlighting financial pressures and declining market confidence facing the company.
See More
Rigetti Computing Stock Plummets After Q4 Earnings Report
- Earnings Impact: Rigetti Computing's stock plummeted significantly following the release of its Q4 earnings report, indicating market disappointment with the company's financial performance, although specific financial figures were not disclosed.
- Sales Momentum: Despite the stock decline, analysts remain optimistic about the ongoing momentum in machine sales, suggesting that this could support future revenue growth and reflects confidence in product demand.
- Market Reaction: The negative investor reaction to the earnings report may lead to increased short-term stock volatility, potentially affecting the company's image in the capital markets and its ability to raise funds, necessitating close monitoring of subsequent market developments.
- Strategic Outlook: Rigetti Computing must implement effective strategies to restore investor confidence, which may include enhancing marketing efforts and product innovation to address current market challenges and improve long-term growth potential.
See More
Rigetti Computing Reports Disappointing Q4 Earnings, Analysts Adjust Ratings
- Disappointing Earnings: Rigetti Computing's fourth-quarter earnings report revealed revenues 20% below expectations, leading to a 9.04% drop in share price to $16.15 during early trading on Thursday, indicating market disappointment with the company's performance.
- Analyst Rating Adjustments: Needham analyst Quinn Bolton reaffirmed a Buy rating but slashed the price target from $51 to $31, although he raised the fiscal 2026 revenue estimate from $18.5 million to $21 million, signaling acceleration in system sales.
- Increased Sales Orders: The company announced two purchase orders for its Cepheus-1-108-qubit system and Novera 9-qubit QPU, suggesting a strengthening sales momentum in the quantum computing sector, despite overall revenue remaining lumpy.
- Confidence in Technical Roadmap: Management expressed confidence in Rigetti Computing's technical roadmap through 2027, indicating a commitment to ongoing advancements, even as development revenues remain inconsistent, particularly in quarters without machine sales.
See More
Middle East Conflict Drives Oil Prices Surge
- Oil Price Surge: The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has driven crude oil prices close to $90 per barrel within a week, marking one of the sharpest weekly gains in years, which directly threatens global energy supply and rattles investor confidence.
- Labor Market Deterioration: The U.S. labor market unexpectedly lost 92,000 nonfarm jobs in February, exacerbating concerns about weakening economic momentum and undermining market confidence in future economic prospects.
- Energy Stocks Rise: The surge in energy costs quickly impacted equity markets, lifting energy stocks while severely hitting fuel-sensitive sectors like airlines and cruise operators, as investors feared rising jet fuel prices would squeeze margins.
- Fragile Market Sentiment: The geopolitical shock has added to already fragile market sentiment, prompting traders to reassess inflation risks associated with rising oil prices and supply disruptions, leading to increased overall market volatility.
See More
Wall Street Excited About Growth Potential of Quantum Pure-Play Companies Like IonQ
- Quantum Computing Significance: BofA Securities analysts have identified quantum computing as a pivotal technological advancement, referring to it as “the next fire moment.”
- Historical Impact: This development is considered one of the most significant in hundreds of thousands of years, highlighting its potential to transform various industries.
See More
Rigetti Computing Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Significant Technical Progress: Rigetti achieved a 99.9% 2-qubit gate fidelity at a 28-nanosecond gate speed in Q4 2025, showcasing the technological advantages of its ProDrive platform, which marks a continued advancement in quantum computing and enhances its competitive position in the market.
- Growing Commercial Orders: The company secured an $8.4 million order from India's C-DAC for a 108-qubit quantum computer scheduled for deployment in the second half of 2026, along with $5.7 million in orders for two 9-qubit Novera systems, indicating strong international demand for its products.
- Financial Performance Fluctuations: Revenue for Q4 2025 was $1.9 million, down from $2.3 million in Q4 2024, with gross margins declining from 44% to 35%, reflecting cost pressures and market challenges faced during the company's expansion.
- Clear Future Outlook: Management anticipates launching a 150-qubit system by the end of 2026 with a target of 99.7% 2-qubit gate fidelity, demonstrating the company's strong confidence in technical execution and market expansion, aiming to solidify its leadership in the quantum computing sector.
See More
Tech Stocks Rebound While Airline Shares Decline
- Tech Sector Recovery: The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rose over 2%, with Salesforce up 5% and Microsoft and Oracle each gaining 1%, indicating a rebound in investor confidence towards tech companies previously impacted by AI fears, suggesting a potential improvement in market sentiment.
- Travel Stocks Surge: Expedia's shares jumped nearly 11% and Booking Holdings rose about 8% as OpenAI scaled back its direct shopping plans within ChatGPT, alleviating concerns over potential disruptions to booking sites, signaling a recovery in market confidence in the travel sector.
- Airline Stocks Under Pressure: United Airlines and Delta Air Lines saw their shares tumble 7% as oil prices resumed their ascent, with Southwest Airlines down over 6%, reflecting the direct impact of oil price volatility on the airline industry, which may lead to increased operating costs and profit compression.
- Victoria's Secret Plummets: The lingerie retailer's stock fell 15% after projecting free cash flow of $220 million to $250 million by January 2027, significantly below analysts' consensus estimate of $301.9 million, highlighting financial pressures and declining market confidence facing the company.
See More
Rigetti Computing Stock Plummets After Q4 Earnings Report
- Earnings Impact: Rigetti Computing's stock plummeted significantly following the release of its Q4 earnings report, indicating market disappointment with the company's financial performance, although specific financial figures were not disclosed.
- Sales Momentum: Despite the stock decline, analysts remain optimistic about the ongoing momentum in machine sales, suggesting that this could support future revenue growth and reflects confidence in product demand.
- Market Reaction: The negative investor reaction to the earnings report may lead to increased short-term stock volatility, potentially affecting the company's image in the capital markets and its ability to raise funds, necessitating close monitoring of subsequent market developments.
- Strategic Outlook: Rigetti Computing must implement effective strategies to restore investor confidence, which may include enhancing marketing efforts and product innovation to address current market challenges and improve long-term growth potential.
See More
Rigetti Computing Reports Disappointing Q4 Earnings, Analysts Adjust Ratings
- Disappointing Earnings: Rigetti Computing's fourth-quarter earnings report revealed revenues 20% below expectations, leading to a 9.04% drop in share price to $16.15 during early trading on Thursday, indicating market disappointment with the company's performance.
- Analyst Rating Adjustments: Needham analyst Quinn Bolton reaffirmed a Buy rating but slashed the price target from $51 to $31, although he raised the fiscal 2026 revenue estimate from $18.5 million to $21 million, signaling acceleration in system sales.
- Increased Sales Orders: The company announced two purchase orders for its Cepheus-1-108-qubit system and Novera 9-qubit QPU, suggesting a strengthening sales momentum in the quantum computing sector, despite overall revenue remaining lumpy.
- Confidence in Technical Roadmap: Management expressed confidence in Rigetti Computing's technical roadmap through 2027, indicating a commitment to ongoing advancements, even as development revenues remain inconsistent, particularly in quarters without machine sales.
See More
