Pagaya Technologies sees stock surge amid strong earnings outlook
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 31 2026
0mins
Source: Yahoo Finance
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) experienced a significant price increase of 15.97%, reaching a 5-day high, as investors reacted positively to its strong earnings outlook and revenue growth.
The company's current year earnings estimate has risen by 12.2% over the last 60 days, reflecting the effectiveness of its product-focused strategy. This positive sentiment is further supported by Pagaya's impressive revenue growth of 10% year-over-year in Q1, generating $317 million, primarily from loan placement fees. Additionally, the partnership with Sezzle is expected to enhance its business growth, contributing to the optimistic projections for network volume and revenue in the coming years.
This surge in stock price indicates strong market confidence in Pagaya's growth potential, especially as it continues to expand its network and improve its financial metrics, positioning itself favorably in the competitive AI lending market.
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Analyst Views on PGY
Wall Street analysts forecast PGY stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 15.460
Low
35.00
Averages
43.33
High
54.00
Current: 15.460
Low
35.00
Averages
43.33
High
54.00
About PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd is an Israel-based company. It is primarily engaged in financial technology (FinTech) industry. The Company develops data science, machine learning and AI technology (Artificial Intelligence) analytics, enabling accurate, real-time customer credit assessments. Company's customers are lending companies that, by connecting to the AI Pagaya network, have the opportunity to discover and approve new customers that meet their credit criteria. Thanks to the Company's solutions, its customers gains a customer without undue risk. Pagaya Technologies Ltd delivers technology that provides loan assistance such as personal, car and credit card loans. The Company serves its clients all over the world.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Five Stocks Added to Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) List
- Earnings Estimate Increase: Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) has seen its current year earnings estimate rise by 12.2% over the last 60 days, indicating the effectiveness of its product-focused strategy, which could drive stock price appreciation and enhance market confidence.
- Significant Growth Outlook: TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) has experienced a 27.5% increase in its current year earnings estimate over the past 60 days, reflecting strong demand in the printed circuit board manufacturing sector, which is expected to boost overall company performance.
- Fintech Potential: Green Dot Corporation (GDOT) has seen a 12.8% increase in its current year earnings estimate over the last 60 days, showcasing its ongoing innovation and market expansion capabilities in the fintech space, likely attracting more investor interest.
- Strong Energy Sector Performance: Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) has had its current year earnings estimate raised by 67.2% over the past 60 days, demonstrating robust performance in oil and gas development, which could lead to significant shareholder returns.
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Pagaya Technologies: The Rise of an AI Value Stock
- Valuation Advantage: Pagaya Technologies' stock trades around $13 with a P/E ratio of 11 and a forward P/E of just 4, indicating its potential as a value stock, while its five-year PEG ratio stands at a mere 0.03, highlighting significant growth potential.
- Revenue Growth: In Q1, Pagaya generated $317 million in revenue, a 10% year-over-year increase, with 94% of this revenue coming from loan placement fees, showcasing its strong performance in the non-prime loan market.
- Network Expansion: The company's network volume rose by 9% in Q1 to $2.6 billion, driven by growth in auto loans and point-of-sale loans, particularly through its partnership with Sezzle, which is expected to further boost its business growth.
- Optimistic Outlook: Pagaya anticipates network volume reaching between $11.45 billion and $13 billion by 2026, with revenue forecasts of $1.4 billion to $1.575 billion this year, and net income expected to rise by 67%, reflecting strong growth prospects that have garnered significant attention from Wall Street analysts.
See More
Upstart and Pagaya Compete in AI Lending
- Upstart's Market Performance: Upstart achieved approximately $1.1 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 58.9% increase year-over-year, with a net income of $53.6 million, demonstrating rapid expansion and improved profitability in the AI lending market, thereby enhancing its competitive position in fintech.
- Pagaya's Financial Health: Pagaya generated around $1.3 billion in revenue for FY 2025, reflecting a 25.6% growth from the previous year, with a net income of $81.4 million and a net margin of 6.5%, marking a successful transition from early investment to a mature operating model, increasing its market appeal.
- Risk Analysis: Upstart faces risks from macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates that may dampen loan demand, while Pagaya is sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate market and the complexities of capital acquisition, which could impact its business stability and market share.
- Valuation Comparison: As of December 2025, Upstart's forward P/E ratio stands at 13.1x and P/S ratio at 2.7x, while Pagaya's forward P/E is 9.7x and P/S ratio is 0.9x, indicating that Pagaya appears more attractive in terms of valuation, potentially offering better long-term returns for investors.
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Upstart vs. Pagaya: AI Lending Competition Analysis
- Revenue Growth Comparison: Upstart's revenue reached approximately $1.1 billion in FY 2025, reflecting a 58.9% increase, while Pagaya generated about $1.3 billion, marking a 25.6% growth, indicating differing growth trajectories and market acceptance in the AI lending space.
- Profitability Analysis: Upstart reported a net income of nearly $53.6 million, showcasing its ability to enhance profitability during expansion, whereas Pagaya achieved a net income of approximately $81.4 million with a net margin of 6.5%, indicating a transition from early investment to a mature operating model.
- Financial Health Status: As of December 2025, Upstart's debt-to-equity ratio stood at 2.3x with a current ratio of 3.0, reflecting its short-term debt repayment capability; in contrast, Pagaya's debt-to-equity ratio was 1.9x with a current ratio of 5.6, suggesting greater financial flexibility.
- Market Risk Assessment: Upstart faces risks from high interest rates that may reduce loan demand, while Pagaya is sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate market and capital costs, with both companies' market performance closely tied to economic conditions, necessitating cautious evaluation by investors.
See More
Pagaya Appoints New Chief Commercial Officer
- Leadership Expansion: Pagaya Technologies has appointed Terry O'Neil as Chief Commercial Officer, tasked with driving the company's partnerships and growth functions, which is expected to accelerate the establishment of new relationships and enhance market competitiveness.
- Strategic Growth Focus: O'Neil will concentrate on deepening product adoption to increase the impact of Pagaya's offerings in the U.S. consumer lending market, ensuring the company maintains its position as a preferred technology partner for major lenders.
- Extensive Industry Experience: With over 20 years of strategic expertise in consumer financial services, O'Neil has held several key leadership roles at Citi, where he managed P&L and advanced payment capabilities, bringing valuable industry insights to Pagaya.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: O'Neil expressed that Pagaya's growth story is undeniable, highlighting the company's unique ability to leverage vast data to create more opportunities for both lenders and consumers, indicating strong growth potential ahead.
See More
Upstart Applies for Bank Charter, Transitioning to Lender Model
- Transition to Banking Model: Upstart has applied for a bank charter, intending to shift from a platform to a lending institution, a significant change that will enable it to lower funding costs and access deposits as a new revenue stream, thereby enhancing its position in a competitive market.
- Funding Cost Advantage: As a bank, Upstart will be able to obtain cheaper funds through deposits rather than relying on wholesale loan resales, which will provide greater operational flexibility and improve profitability in future operations.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Although Upstart's transformation may present new opportunities, the digital banking space is highly competitive, with companies like SoFi and Chime rapidly gaining traction, necessitating Upstart to find a unique market position to stand out.
- Poor Stock Performance: Upstart's stock has fallen 33% this year, and despite management's confidence in the transition, the market's lukewarm response to its latest quarterly earnings report indicates that its road to recovery remains long and complicated.
See More
Five Stocks Added to Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) List
- Earnings Estimate Increase: Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) has seen its current year earnings estimate rise by 12.2% over the last 60 days, indicating the effectiveness of its product-focused strategy, which could drive stock price appreciation and enhance market confidence.
- Significant Growth Outlook: TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) has experienced a 27.5% increase in its current year earnings estimate over the past 60 days, reflecting strong demand in the printed circuit board manufacturing sector, which is expected to boost overall company performance.
- Fintech Potential: Green Dot Corporation (GDOT) has seen a 12.8% increase in its current year earnings estimate over the last 60 days, showcasing its ongoing innovation and market expansion capabilities in the fintech space, likely attracting more investor interest.
- Strong Energy Sector Performance: Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) has had its current year earnings estimate raised by 67.2% over the past 60 days, demonstrating robust performance in oil and gas development, which could lead to significant shareholder returns.
See More
Pagaya Technologies: The Rise of an AI Value Stock
- Valuation Advantage: Pagaya Technologies' stock trades around $13 with a P/E ratio of 11 and a forward P/E of just 4, indicating its potential as a value stock, while its five-year PEG ratio stands at a mere 0.03, highlighting significant growth potential.
- Revenue Growth: In Q1, Pagaya generated $317 million in revenue, a 10% year-over-year increase, with 94% of this revenue coming from loan placement fees, showcasing its strong performance in the non-prime loan market.
- Network Expansion: The company's network volume rose by 9% in Q1 to $2.6 billion, driven by growth in auto loans and point-of-sale loans, particularly through its partnership with Sezzle, which is expected to further boost its business growth.
- Optimistic Outlook: Pagaya anticipates network volume reaching between $11.45 billion and $13 billion by 2026, with revenue forecasts of $1.4 billion to $1.575 billion this year, and net income expected to rise by 67%, reflecting strong growth prospects that have garnered significant attention from Wall Street analysts.
See More
Upstart and Pagaya Compete in AI Lending
- Upstart's Market Performance: Upstart achieved approximately $1.1 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 58.9% increase year-over-year, with a net income of $53.6 million, demonstrating rapid expansion and improved profitability in the AI lending market, thereby enhancing its competitive position in fintech.
- Pagaya's Financial Health: Pagaya generated around $1.3 billion in revenue for FY 2025, reflecting a 25.6% growth from the previous year, with a net income of $81.4 million and a net margin of 6.5%, marking a successful transition from early investment to a mature operating model, increasing its market appeal.
- Risk Analysis: Upstart faces risks from macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates that may dampen loan demand, while Pagaya is sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate market and the complexities of capital acquisition, which could impact its business stability and market share.
- Valuation Comparison: As of December 2025, Upstart's forward P/E ratio stands at 13.1x and P/S ratio at 2.7x, while Pagaya's forward P/E is 9.7x and P/S ratio is 0.9x, indicating that Pagaya appears more attractive in terms of valuation, potentially offering better long-term returns for investors.
See More
Upstart vs. Pagaya: AI Lending Competition Analysis
- Revenue Growth Comparison: Upstart's revenue reached approximately $1.1 billion in FY 2025, reflecting a 58.9% increase, while Pagaya generated about $1.3 billion, marking a 25.6% growth, indicating differing growth trajectories and market acceptance in the AI lending space.
- Profitability Analysis: Upstart reported a net income of nearly $53.6 million, showcasing its ability to enhance profitability during expansion, whereas Pagaya achieved a net income of approximately $81.4 million with a net margin of 6.5%, indicating a transition from early investment to a mature operating model.
- Financial Health Status: As of December 2025, Upstart's debt-to-equity ratio stood at 2.3x with a current ratio of 3.0, reflecting its short-term debt repayment capability; in contrast, Pagaya's debt-to-equity ratio was 1.9x with a current ratio of 5.6, suggesting greater financial flexibility.
- Market Risk Assessment: Upstart faces risks from high interest rates that may reduce loan demand, while Pagaya is sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate market and capital costs, with both companies' market performance closely tied to economic conditions, necessitating cautious evaluation by investors.
See More
Pagaya Appoints New Chief Commercial Officer
- Leadership Expansion: Pagaya Technologies has appointed Terry O'Neil as Chief Commercial Officer, tasked with driving the company's partnerships and growth functions, which is expected to accelerate the establishment of new relationships and enhance market competitiveness.
- Strategic Growth Focus: O'Neil will concentrate on deepening product adoption to increase the impact of Pagaya's offerings in the U.S. consumer lending market, ensuring the company maintains its position as a preferred technology partner for major lenders.
- Extensive Industry Experience: With over 20 years of strategic expertise in consumer financial services, O'Neil has held several key leadership roles at Citi, where he managed P&L and advanced payment capabilities, bringing valuable industry insights to Pagaya.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: O'Neil expressed that Pagaya's growth story is undeniable, highlighting the company's unique ability to leverage vast data to create more opportunities for both lenders and consumers, indicating strong growth potential ahead.
See More
Upstart Applies for Bank Charter, Transitioning to Lender Model
- Transition to Banking Model: Upstart has applied for a bank charter, intending to shift from a platform to a lending institution, a significant change that will enable it to lower funding costs and access deposits as a new revenue stream, thereby enhancing its position in a competitive market.
- Funding Cost Advantage: As a bank, Upstart will be able to obtain cheaper funds through deposits rather than relying on wholesale loan resales, which will provide greater operational flexibility and improve profitability in future operations.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Although Upstart's transformation may present new opportunities, the digital banking space is highly competitive, with companies like SoFi and Chime rapidly gaining traction, necessitating Upstart to find a unique market position to stand out.
- Poor Stock Performance: Upstart's stock has fallen 33% this year, and despite management's confidence in the transition, the market's lukewarm response to its latest quarterly earnings report indicates that its road to recovery remains long and complicated.
See More
