Morgan Stanley Downgrades Zscaler Amid Competition Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 17 2024
0mins
Should l Buy ZS?
Zscaler's stock fell 7.16% as it crossed below the 5-day SMA, reflecting investor concerns following a downgrade by Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley downgraded Zscaler's rating from Overweight to Equal-weight and reduced the price target from $200 to $155, citing increasing competition in the Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) market. Despite Zscaler's ZDX achieving $100 million in annual recurring revenue, analysts expressed concerns over the slow integration of Red Canary, which has not provided the expected market momentum. This cautious outlook has led to a significant decline in Zscaler's shares, which have fallen over 35% year-to-date, indicating that the market has already priced in these concerns.
The downgrade highlights the challenges Zscaler faces in a competitive landscape, as customers are increasingly evaluating broader platform vendors. This could lead to elongated sales cycles and impact Zscaler's future profitability and market share.
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Analyst Views on ZS
Wall Street analysts forecast ZS stock price to rise
30 Analyst Rating
24 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 142.660
Low
260.00
Averages
325.62
High
390.00
Current: 142.660
Low
260.00
Averages
325.62
High
390.00
About ZS
Zscaler, Inc. is a cloud security company. The Company has developed a platform incorporating core security functionalities needed to enable fast and secure access to cloud resources based on identity, context and an organization’s policies. Its Zscaler Zero Trust Exchange platform protects thousands of customers from cyberattacks and data loss by securely connecting users, devices, and applications in any location. Its solution is a purpose-built, multi-tenant, distributed cloud platform that incorporates the security functionality needed to enable users, applications, and devices to safely and efficiently utilize authorized applications and services based on an organization’s business policies. It delivers its solutions using a software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model and sells subscriptions to customers to access its cloud platform, together with related support services. It offers a security platform that combines its platform with automated security operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Performance Outlook: While Zscaler's ZDX achieved $100 million in annual recurring revenue with an 80% year-over-year increase, analysts noted that the slow integration of Red Canary has failed to provide the expected market momentum, impacting the overall growth narrative of the platform.
- Market Reaction: Zscaler's shares dipped about 1% in premarket trading on Tuesday and have fallen over 35% year-to-date, significantly exceeding the security sector's average decline of 24%, indicating that the market has partially priced in the analysts' cautious outlook.
- Competitive Pressure: Analysts warned that as customers evaluate broader platform vendors with deeper networking capabilities, Zscaler faces increased competitive pressure in large enterprise deals, leading to elongated sales cycles that could affect its future profitability and market share.
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- Zero Trust Platform: The Zscaler Zero Trust Exchange™ platform, combined with Google's AI-powered infrastructure, provides autonomous, data-centric protection for users and applications, enabling enterprises to securely adopt cloud technologies and meet critical use case demands.
- Growing AI Security Demand: Zscaler continues to see strong customer demand in AI Security, Zero Trust, and Data Security, indicating market recognition of its innovative solutions and reinforcing the company's significant role in digital transformation initiatives.
- Strategic Innovation Acknowledgment: Kevin Ichhpurani from Google Cloud noted Zscaler's contributions to customer success over the past year, further emphasizing its value in driving strategic innovation and customer success.
See More
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- Rating Downgrade: Morgan Stanley downgraded Zscaler's rating from Overweight to Equal-weight and cut the price target from $200 to $155, primarily due to increasing competition in the Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) space, which has weakened market confidence in its future growth.
- Performance Outlook: While Zscaler's ZDX achieved $100 million in annual recurring revenue with an 80% year-over-year increase, analysts noted that the slow integration of Red Canary has failed to provide the expected market momentum, impacting the overall growth narrative of the platform.
- Market Reaction: Zscaler's shares dipped about 1% in premarket trading on Tuesday and have fallen over 35% year-to-date, significantly exceeding the security sector's average decline of 24%, indicating that the market has partially priced in the analysts' cautious outlook.
- Competitive Pressure: Analysts warned that as customers evaluate broader platform vendors with deeper networking capabilities, Zscaler faces increased competitive pressure in large enterprise deals, leading to elongated sales cycles that could affect its future profitability and market share.
See More
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Morgan Stanley's Strategy: Morgan Stanley has adjusted its investment strategy by cutting its overweight position in certain assets to achieve a more equal-weighted portfolio.
Market Implications: This shift indicates a response to market conditions, aiming to balance risk and return across various investments.
See More
US Stocks Rise on Strong Retail Sales and Earnings Reports
- Strong Retail Sales: US March retail sales rose 1.7% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 1.4% and marking the largest increase in a year, indicating robust consumer spending that could bolster economic recovery and market confidence.
- Earnings Support: UnitedHealth Group (UNH) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $9.23, significantly above the consensus of $6.57, raising its full-year forecast to above $18.25, which has driven health insurance stocks higher and reflects industry resilience.
- Fed Nomination in Focus: Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee is drawing attention; despite facing an investigation hurdle, Warsh's commitment to an independent Fed and prioritizing inflation control could influence future monetary policy directions.
- International Tensions Impact Oil Prices: WTI crude oil prices fell over 1% as Iran is set to attend peace talks with the US, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to exacerbate the global energy crisis, affecting market sentiment.
See More
U.S. Stocks Mixed as Oil Prices Rebound
- Market Performance: The S&P 500 Index fell by 0.13%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also declined by 0.13%, while the Nasdaq 100 saw a slight increase of 0.02%, reflecting market volatility influenced by oil price rebounds and economic data.
- Strong Economic Data: March retail sales rose by 1.7% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 1.4%, marking the largest increase in a year, indicating robust consumer spending that may support stock prices.
- Oil Price Recovery: WTI crude oil prices rebounded by over 2% as market speculation intensified regarding Iran's participation in upcoming peace talks, potentially exacerbating the global energy crisis.
- Impressive Earnings Reports: UnitedHealth Group reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $9.23, significantly above the consensus of $6.57, leading to a stock price increase of over 7% and raising its full-year earnings forecast, showcasing strong performance in the health insurance sector.
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