McCormick Lowers 2026 Profit Guidance, Shares Drop 6%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 22 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MKC?
Source: seekingalpha
McCormick's stock fell 3.09% and hit a 20-day low amid broader market gains, with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.99% and the S&P 500 up 0.65%.
The company lowered its adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 to between $3.05 and $3.13, below the consensus estimate of $3.23, indicating significant pressure on profitability and reduced market confidence. This news comes as McCormick anticipates sales growth of 13% to 17% for 2026, which is below market expectations, reflecting challenges from global trade dynamics.
This downward revision in profit guidance has raised concerns among investors, leading to a notable decline in share price. The market's reaction underscores the importance of maintaining investor confidence, especially in light of the company's recent performance and future projections.
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Analyst Views on MKC
Wall Street analysts forecast MKC stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 68.490
Low
75.00
Averages
83.67
High
89.00
Current: 68.490
Low
75.00
Averages
83.67
High
89.00
About MKC
McCormick & Company, Incorporated manufactures, markets, and distributes herbs, spices, seasonings, condiments and flavors to the entire food and beverage industry, including retailers, food manufacturers and foodservice businesses. It operates through two segments: consumer and flavor solutions. The consumer segment sells to retail channels, including grocery, mass merchandise, warehouse clubs, discount and drug stores, and e-commerce under the McCormick brand and a variety of brands around the world, including French's, Frank's RedHot, Lawry’s, Zatarain’s, Simply Asia, Thai Kitchen, Ducros, Vahine, Cholula, Schwartz, Club House, Kamis, DaQiao, La Drogheria, Stubb's, OLD BAY, Gourmet Garden, and others. In its flavor solutions segment, it provides a range of products to multinational food manufacturers and foodservice customers. The foodservice customers are supplied with branded, packaged products both directly by the Company and indirectly through distributors.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
AI's Role in Food R&D: Enhancements and Limitations
- Historical AI Use: McCormick has utilized AI in flavor development for nearly a decade, achieving an average reduction in development timelines by 20% to 25% by identifying promising flavor combinations, thereby enhancing product launch speed and market competitiveness.
- Unilever's Innovations: Unilever's systems can digitally test thousands of recipes in seconds, with the Knorr Fast & Flavourful Paste developed in roughly half the usual time, significantly improving R&D efficiency and reducing the need for physical testing.
- Market Potential: Industry analysts estimate that the market for AI in food and beverages will grow from approximately $10 billion in 2025 to over $50 billion by 2030, driven by increased investment in data-driven product development and personalization, indicating substantial business opportunities.
- Importance of Human Creativity: Despite AI's supportive role in food R&D, experts emphasize that human creativity and judgment remain indispensable, with AI serving merely as a tool to enhance the capabilities of R&D teams rather than replacing human sensory evaluation.
See More
AI's Role and Challenges in the Food Industry
- Efficiency Boost in R&D: McCormick has reduced flavor development timelines by 20% to 25% on average through AI, enabling faster identification of promising flavor combinations and accelerating time-to-market for new products.
- Rapid Development at Unilever: Unilever employs AI to digitally test thousands of recipes, resulting in the Knorr Fast & Flavourful Paste being developed in about half the usual time, significantly enhancing product development efficiency and market responsiveness.
- Massive Market Potential: Industry analysts estimate that the market for AI in food and beverages will grow from approximately $10 billion in 2025 to over $50 billion by 2030, reflecting increasing investments in data-driven product development.
- Human Judgment Remains Crucial: Despite AI's significant role in food R&D, experts emphasize that human creativity and judgment are irreplaceable, with AI serving merely as a tool to enhance efficiency and flexibility in the development process.
See More
Tech Stocks Volatility Rises, Strong Dividend Stocks Preferred
- Increased Market Volatility: Large-cap tech stocks have reached near 25-year high valuations after a three-year bull market, prompting market watchers to warn of a potential correction, necessitating investors to prepare for possible volatility.
- Recommended Strong Stocks: Hormel and McCormick, as consumer staples companies, have historically outperformed during market downturns, with Hormel boasting a 59-year streak of dividend increases and a current yield of 4.69%.
- Stable Dividend Yields: Despite Hormel and McCormick posting negative returns over the past one and five years, their dividends remain robust, with McCormick achieving 39 consecutive years of dividend growth and a yield of 2.85%.
- Analysts Favorable Outlook: Hormel has a price target of $27.50, suggesting a 12% upside, while McCormick's target is $73, indicating an expected 8% return over the next 12 months, making them suitable for providing stable income and protection in a volatile market.
See More
Quality Dividend Stocks Amid Market Volatility
- Dividend Stock Performance: Both Hormel and McCormick have historically outperformed during economic downturns, with Hormel exceeding the S&P 500 since 2008 in years of negative or minimal returns, demonstrating resilience amid market volatility.
- Dividend Growth History: Hormel, known as a 'Dividend King', has increased its dividend for 59 consecutive years with a current yield of 4.69%, while McCormick boasts 39 years of dividend increases at a yield of 2.85%, providing investors with a reliable income stream.
- Future Growth Potential: Analysts set a median price target of $27.50 for Hormel, suggesting a 12% upside, while McCormick's target is $73, indicating an expected 8% return over the next 12 months, highlighting their investment appeal.
- Market Environment Impact: With increasing volatility expected in 2026, these dividend stocks may offer stable income and downside protection for growth-oriented portfolios, although Hormel was not included in the latest Motley Fool recommendations, its long-term performance remains noteworthy.
See More
Valuation Analysis of McCormick Stock
- Stock Performance: McCormick's stock recently closed at $67.42, reflecting a 9.0% return over the past week, yet it has seen an 11.7% decline over the past year, indicating a strong short-term performance but a weak long-term trend that prompts investors to reassess its value.
- Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: The DCF model estimates McCormick's free cash flow at $705 million, projecting it to reach $1,029 million in 2026 and $1,141 million in 2028, suggesting an intrinsic value of approximately $121.78 per share, indicating a potential undervaluation of 44.6%.
- P/E Ratio Comparison: Currently, McCormick trades at a P/E ratio of 22.9x, which is close to the food industry average of 23.1x but significantly lower than the peer group average of 40.5x, indicating that the market values its earnings reasonably, yet it trades above its fair ratio of 19.3x, suggesting some overvaluation risk.
- Investor Focus: Despite the strong short-term stock performance, investors should remain attentive to McCormick's long-term growth potential and the market's reassessment of its stable consumer brand, enabling more informed investment decisions.
See More
Worst Performing Consumer Staples Stocks in January 2026
- McCormick's Poor Performance: McCormick & Company (MKC) leads the list with an 11.31% decline in stock price over the past month, indicating market concerns about its growth prospects, which could lead to decreased investor confidence and long-term stock performance issues.
- Dollar Tree's Struggles: Following closely, Dollar Tree (DLTR) saw a 5.34% drop despite its strong buy rating of 4.61, suggesting that market apprehensions regarding its profitability may hinder any potential stock rebound.
- Other Underperformers: General Mills (GIS) and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) experienced declines of 5.31% and 4.76%, respectively, highlighting the impact of weak consumer spending on these companies, which may lead to downward revisions in future sales and profit expectations.
- Overall Market Trends: The consumer staples sector is facing challenges, with The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) also showing declines, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment towards the industry amid broader economic uncertainties.
See More
AI's Role in Food R&D: Enhancements and Limitations
- Historical AI Use: McCormick has utilized AI in flavor development for nearly a decade, achieving an average reduction in development timelines by 20% to 25% by identifying promising flavor combinations, thereby enhancing product launch speed and market competitiveness.
- Unilever's Innovations: Unilever's systems can digitally test thousands of recipes in seconds, with the Knorr Fast & Flavourful Paste developed in roughly half the usual time, significantly improving R&D efficiency and reducing the need for physical testing.
- Market Potential: Industry analysts estimate that the market for AI in food and beverages will grow from approximately $10 billion in 2025 to over $50 billion by 2030, driven by increased investment in data-driven product development and personalization, indicating substantial business opportunities.
- Importance of Human Creativity: Despite AI's supportive role in food R&D, experts emphasize that human creativity and judgment remain indispensable, with AI serving merely as a tool to enhance the capabilities of R&D teams rather than replacing human sensory evaluation.
See More
AI's Role and Challenges in the Food Industry
- Efficiency Boost in R&D: McCormick has reduced flavor development timelines by 20% to 25% on average through AI, enabling faster identification of promising flavor combinations and accelerating time-to-market for new products.
- Rapid Development at Unilever: Unilever employs AI to digitally test thousands of recipes, resulting in the Knorr Fast & Flavourful Paste being developed in about half the usual time, significantly enhancing product development efficiency and market responsiveness.
- Massive Market Potential: Industry analysts estimate that the market for AI in food and beverages will grow from approximately $10 billion in 2025 to over $50 billion by 2030, reflecting increasing investments in data-driven product development.
- Human Judgment Remains Crucial: Despite AI's significant role in food R&D, experts emphasize that human creativity and judgment are irreplaceable, with AI serving merely as a tool to enhance efficiency and flexibility in the development process.
See More
Tech Stocks Volatility Rises, Strong Dividend Stocks Preferred
- Increased Market Volatility: Large-cap tech stocks have reached near 25-year high valuations after a three-year bull market, prompting market watchers to warn of a potential correction, necessitating investors to prepare for possible volatility.
- Recommended Strong Stocks: Hormel and McCormick, as consumer staples companies, have historically outperformed during market downturns, with Hormel boasting a 59-year streak of dividend increases and a current yield of 4.69%.
- Stable Dividend Yields: Despite Hormel and McCormick posting negative returns over the past one and five years, their dividends remain robust, with McCormick achieving 39 consecutive years of dividend growth and a yield of 2.85%.
- Analysts Favorable Outlook: Hormel has a price target of $27.50, suggesting a 12% upside, while McCormick's target is $73, indicating an expected 8% return over the next 12 months, making them suitable for providing stable income and protection in a volatile market.
See More
Quality Dividend Stocks Amid Market Volatility
- Dividend Stock Performance: Both Hormel and McCormick have historically outperformed during economic downturns, with Hormel exceeding the S&P 500 since 2008 in years of negative or minimal returns, demonstrating resilience amid market volatility.
- Dividend Growth History: Hormel, known as a 'Dividend King', has increased its dividend for 59 consecutive years with a current yield of 4.69%, while McCormick boasts 39 years of dividend increases at a yield of 2.85%, providing investors with a reliable income stream.
- Future Growth Potential: Analysts set a median price target of $27.50 for Hormel, suggesting a 12% upside, while McCormick's target is $73, indicating an expected 8% return over the next 12 months, highlighting their investment appeal.
- Market Environment Impact: With increasing volatility expected in 2026, these dividend stocks may offer stable income and downside protection for growth-oriented portfolios, although Hormel was not included in the latest Motley Fool recommendations, its long-term performance remains noteworthy.
See More
Valuation Analysis of McCormick Stock
- Stock Performance: McCormick's stock recently closed at $67.42, reflecting a 9.0% return over the past week, yet it has seen an 11.7% decline over the past year, indicating a strong short-term performance but a weak long-term trend that prompts investors to reassess its value.
- Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: The DCF model estimates McCormick's free cash flow at $705 million, projecting it to reach $1,029 million in 2026 and $1,141 million in 2028, suggesting an intrinsic value of approximately $121.78 per share, indicating a potential undervaluation of 44.6%.
- P/E Ratio Comparison: Currently, McCormick trades at a P/E ratio of 22.9x, which is close to the food industry average of 23.1x but significantly lower than the peer group average of 40.5x, indicating that the market values its earnings reasonably, yet it trades above its fair ratio of 19.3x, suggesting some overvaluation risk.
- Investor Focus: Despite the strong short-term stock performance, investors should remain attentive to McCormick's long-term growth potential and the market's reassessment of its stable consumer brand, enabling more informed investment decisions.
See More
Worst Performing Consumer Staples Stocks in January 2026
- McCormick's Poor Performance: McCormick & Company (MKC) leads the list with an 11.31% decline in stock price over the past month, indicating market concerns about its growth prospects, which could lead to decreased investor confidence and long-term stock performance issues.
- Dollar Tree's Struggles: Following closely, Dollar Tree (DLTR) saw a 5.34% drop despite its strong buy rating of 4.61, suggesting that market apprehensions regarding its profitability may hinder any potential stock rebound.
- Other Underperformers: General Mills (GIS) and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) experienced declines of 5.31% and 4.76%, respectively, highlighting the impact of weak consumer spending on these companies, which may lead to downward revisions in future sales and profit expectations.
- Overall Market Trends: The consumer staples sector is facing challenges, with The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) also showing declines, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment towards the industry amid broader economic uncertainties.
See More
