Duolingo's Stock Declines Amid User Growth Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy DUOL?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Duolingo Inc (DUOL) stock fell 3.08% and hit a 52-week low, reflecting investor concerns despite significant user growth.
The company's daily active users surged from 9.8 million in 2021 to 50.5 million, and paid subscribers increased from 2.2 million to 11.5 million, leading to a revenue rise from $226 million to $964 million. However, the stock price plummeted due to fears surrounding future profitability and a strategic shift towards user acquisition, which may compress margins in the coming quarters.
This decline indicates a lack of confidence in Duolingo's long-term financial health, despite its impressive growth metrics, suggesting that investors are cautious about the sustainability of its current business model.
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Analyst Views on DUOL
Wall Street analysts forecast DUOL stock price to rise
17 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 112.570
Low
160.00
Averages
260.36
High
330.00
Current: 112.570
Low
160.00
Averages
260.36
High
330.00
About DUOL
Duolingo, Inc. is a technology company. The Company is engaged in offering a mobile learning platform, as well as a digital English language proficiency assessment exam. It operates a freemium business model, namely, the app and the Website are accessible free of charge, although Duolingo also offers premium services for a subscription fee. Its solutions consist of the Duolingo App, Super Duolingo, Duolingo Max, Duolingo English Test: AI-Driven Language Assessment, Duolingo for Schools, and Duolingo ABC. The Duolingo App offers courses in over 40 different languages, including Spanish, English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Japanese and Chinese. Duolingo can also be accessed on desktop computers via a Web browser. Its subscription offering, Super Duolingo, offers learners additional features to enhance their learning experience. The Duolingo English Test is an online, on-demand, high-stakes English proficiency assessment. It also operates an animation and motion design studio.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Duolingo Achieves Significant Milestones in 2025
- User Growth Milestone: In 2025, Duolingo surpassed 50 million daily active users and over 135 million monthly active users, indicating its transition from a niche app to one of the world's most engaged freemium platforms, enhancing user stickiness and market competitiveness.
- Revenue and Profitability Peaks: Duolingo achieved over $1 billion in annual revenue in 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.5%, showcasing its strong profitability in the consumer subscription sector and further solidifying its market position.
- AI-Driven Economic Benefits: The application of AI not only reduced content development costs but also increased average revenue per user (ARPU), encouraging more users to opt for higher-tier subscription plans, thereby driving revenue growth and operational efficiency.
- Stock Price Volatility Analysis: Despite significant performance improvements in 2025, Duolingo's stock price experienced volatility, primarily due to market adjustments in growth rate expectations and shifts in short-term investment priorities, reflecting a disconnect between strong operational results and stock performance.
See More
Ten-Year Review: Performance of Five Stocks in a Bear Market
- Market Performance Comparison: Over the past decade, the S&P 500 has risen by 274.3%, while the average return of the five stocks stands at 568.5%, highlighting the potential and importance of stock selection during bear markets.
- Carter's Poor Performance: Carter's stock price fell from $85.04 to $38.07, a 55% decline, primarily due to a decreasing birth rate in the U.S. and a deteriorating retail environment, leading to insufficient demand and margin compression.
- Challenges for IPG Photonics: Although IPG Photonics' stock rose from $81.59 to $113.26, a 39% increase, it faced four consecutive years of declining revenue, indicating intensified industry competition and weak market demand.
- Mercado Libre's Success: Mercado Libre's stock skyrocketed from $87.71 to $2041.50, a staggering 2227.6% increase, driven by its dominant market position in Latin America and robust growth in e-commerce, providing substantial returns for investors.
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Duolingo Faces Strategic Risks and Challenges Ahead
- Increased Competitive Pressure: The rise of large language models providing real-time conversation, translation, and grammar correction poses a competitive threat to Duolingo, potentially weakening user reliance on its structured subscription model and impacting long-term profitability.
- Brand Fatigue Risk: In mature markets, user engagement may wane due to prolonged use, especially after reaching intermediate proficiency, which could flatten average lifetime value and hinder sustained growth potential for the company.
- Concerns of Overexpansion: Duolingo's ventures beyond core language learning may dilute focus; while diversification can create options, aggressive expansion could distract management and misallocate capital, affecting the execution of its primary business.
- Importance of Strategic Execution: Although Duolingo does not face existential risks in 2026, it must navigate strategic risks, and investors should monitor how the company protects its core advantages amidst evolving competitive landscapes to ensure long-term market positioning.
See More
Duolingo's Strategic Transformation and Growth in 2025
- User Growth Milestone: In 2025, Duolingo surpassed 50 million daily active users and over 135 million monthly active users, marking its transition from a niche app to one of the world's most popular freemium platforms, significantly enhancing its market competitiveness.
- Revenue and Profit Expansion: Duolingo achieved over $1 billion in annual revenue in 2025, raising its full-year guidance to $1.028 billion to $1.032 billion, marking its first year above the billion-dollar threshold and demonstrating strong growth potential in the consumer subscription business.
- AI-Driven Economic Benefits: Artificial intelligence not only enhanced user experience but also improved profitability by lowering content development costs and increasing average revenue per user (ARPU), positioning Duolingo favorably among high-growth tech companies with the ability to invest continuously.
- Market Volatility and Investment Outlook: Despite strong operational results in 2025, Duolingo's stock price experienced significant volatility, reflecting the market's heightened focus on future growth expectations, prompting investors to assess the long-term compounding potential of its business model against short-term risks.
See More
Duolingo Achieves Significant Milestones in 2025
- User Growth Milestone: In 2025, Duolingo surpassed 50 million daily active users and over 135 million monthly active users, indicating its status as one of the world's most popular freemium platforms, with sustained user growth translating into increased paid subscriptions.
- Revenue and Profitability Peaks: Duolingo achieved over $1 billion in annual revenue for the first time in 2025, with guidance of $1.028 billion to $1.032 billion, marking a significant milestone for consumer subscription businesses, while adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 24.7% to 29.5%.
- AI-Driven Economic Benefits: AI is not just a buzzword for Duolingo; it has lowered content development costs and increased average revenue per user (ARPU) by encouraging subscriptions to higher-tier plans, demonstrating AI's tangible impact on operational efficiency and revenue growth.
- Stock Price Volatility and Investor Focus: Despite strong operational improvements in 2025, Duolingo's stock price experienced volatility, primarily due to investor concerns over growth rate normalization and prioritizing product investment, highlighting that strong operational results do not always correlate with stock performance.
See More
Duolingo's Financial Outlook Remains Positive Ahead of Earnings
- Market Share Growth: Despite facing competition from AI, Duolingo has surpassed 50 million daily active users, driving a 41% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, demonstrating its sustained appeal and growth potential in the language learning market.
- Increase in Paid Users: Duolingo's paid subscribers rose by 34% year-over-year to 11.5 million, indicating strong user recognition and willingness to pay for its services, which bolsters the company's revenue base and future growth confidence.
- Expansion into New Areas: Beyond language learning, chess has become the fastest-growing subject on Duolingo's platform, showcasing its diversification strategy in the edtech sector and broadening its user base and market opportunities.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: Although the stock has dropped 70% over the past year, the pessimistic outlook may create opportunities for a rebound, with expectations that the upcoming earnings report will reaffirm its growth potential, thereby attracting more investor interest.
See More
Duolingo Achieves Significant Milestones in 2025
- User Growth Milestone: In 2025, Duolingo surpassed 50 million daily active users and over 135 million monthly active users, indicating its transition from a niche app to one of the world's most engaged freemium platforms, enhancing user stickiness and market competitiveness.
- Revenue and Profitability Peaks: Duolingo achieved over $1 billion in annual revenue in 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.5%, showcasing its strong profitability in the consumer subscription sector and further solidifying its market position.
- AI-Driven Economic Benefits: The application of AI not only reduced content development costs but also increased average revenue per user (ARPU), encouraging more users to opt for higher-tier subscription plans, thereby driving revenue growth and operational efficiency.
- Stock Price Volatility Analysis: Despite significant performance improvements in 2025, Duolingo's stock price experienced volatility, primarily due to market adjustments in growth rate expectations and shifts in short-term investment priorities, reflecting a disconnect between strong operational results and stock performance.
See More
Ten-Year Review: Performance of Five Stocks in a Bear Market
- Market Performance Comparison: Over the past decade, the S&P 500 has risen by 274.3%, while the average return of the five stocks stands at 568.5%, highlighting the potential and importance of stock selection during bear markets.
- Carter's Poor Performance: Carter's stock price fell from $85.04 to $38.07, a 55% decline, primarily due to a decreasing birth rate in the U.S. and a deteriorating retail environment, leading to insufficient demand and margin compression.
- Challenges for IPG Photonics: Although IPG Photonics' stock rose from $81.59 to $113.26, a 39% increase, it faced four consecutive years of declining revenue, indicating intensified industry competition and weak market demand.
- Mercado Libre's Success: Mercado Libre's stock skyrocketed from $87.71 to $2041.50, a staggering 2227.6% increase, driven by its dominant market position in Latin America and robust growth in e-commerce, providing substantial returns for investors.
See More
Duolingo Faces Strategic Risks and Challenges Ahead
- Increased Competitive Pressure: The rise of large language models providing real-time conversation, translation, and grammar correction poses a competitive threat to Duolingo, potentially weakening user reliance on its structured subscription model and impacting long-term profitability.
- Brand Fatigue Risk: In mature markets, user engagement may wane due to prolonged use, especially after reaching intermediate proficiency, which could flatten average lifetime value and hinder sustained growth potential for the company.
- Concerns of Overexpansion: Duolingo's ventures beyond core language learning may dilute focus; while diversification can create options, aggressive expansion could distract management and misallocate capital, affecting the execution of its primary business.
- Importance of Strategic Execution: Although Duolingo does not face existential risks in 2026, it must navigate strategic risks, and investors should monitor how the company protects its core advantages amidst evolving competitive landscapes to ensure long-term market positioning.
See More
Duolingo's Strategic Transformation and Growth in 2025
- User Growth Milestone: In 2025, Duolingo surpassed 50 million daily active users and over 135 million monthly active users, marking its transition from a niche app to one of the world's most popular freemium platforms, significantly enhancing its market competitiveness.
- Revenue and Profit Expansion: Duolingo achieved over $1 billion in annual revenue in 2025, raising its full-year guidance to $1.028 billion to $1.032 billion, marking its first year above the billion-dollar threshold and demonstrating strong growth potential in the consumer subscription business.
- AI-Driven Economic Benefits: Artificial intelligence not only enhanced user experience but also improved profitability by lowering content development costs and increasing average revenue per user (ARPU), positioning Duolingo favorably among high-growth tech companies with the ability to invest continuously.
- Market Volatility and Investment Outlook: Despite strong operational results in 2025, Duolingo's stock price experienced significant volatility, reflecting the market's heightened focus on future growth expectations, prompting investors to assess the long-term compounding potential of its business model against short-term risks.
See More
Duolingo Achieves Significant Milestones in 2025
- User Growth Milestone: In 2025, Duolingo surpassed 50 million daily active users and over 135 million monthly active users, indicating its status as one of the world's most popular freemium platforms, with sustained user growth translating into increased paid subscriptions.
- Revenue and Profitability Peaks: Duolingo achieved over $1 billion in annual revenue for the first time in 2025, with guidance of $1.028 billion to $1.032 billion, marking a significant milestone for consumer subscription businesses, while adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 24.7% to 29.5%.
- AI-Driven Economic Benefits: AI is not just a buzzword for Duolingo; it has lowered content development costs and increased average revenue per user (ARPU) by encouraging subscriptions to higher-tier plans, demonstrating AI's tangible impact on operational efficiency and revenue growth.
- Stock Price Volatility and Investor Focus: Despite strong operational improvements in 2025, Duolingo's stock price experienced volatility, primarily due to investor concerns over growth rate normalization and prioritizing product investment, highlighting that strong operational results do not always correlate with stock performance.
See More
Duolingo's Financial Outlook Remains Positive Ahead of Earnings
- Market Share Growth: Despite facing competition from AI, Duolingo has surpassed 50 million daily active users, driving a 41% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, demonstrating its sustained appeal and growth potential in the language learning market.
- Increase in Paid Users: Duolingo's paid subscribers rose by 34% year-over-year to 11.5 million, indicating strong user recognition and willingness to pay for its services, which bolsters the company's revenue base and future growth confidence.
- Expansion into New Areas: Beyond language learning, chess has become the fastest-growing subject on Duolingo's platform, showcasing its diversification strategy in the edtech sector and broadening its user base and market opportunities.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: Although the stock has dropped 70% over the past year, the pessimistic outlook may create opportunities for a rebound, with expectations that the upcoming earnings report will reaffirm its growth potential, thereby attracting more investor interest.
See More
