Caterpillar Inc faces decline amid market weakness
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 18 2025
0mins
Should l Buy CAT?
Source: Coinmarketcap
Caterpillar Inc's stock price fell by 5.01% today, hitting a 5-day low. This decline comes as the broader market also experienced downturns, with the Nasdaq-100 down 1.15% and the S&P 500 down 0.53%.
The drop in Caterpillar's stock is attributed to sector rotation, as investors are reacting to the overall market weakness. Despite the company's strong history of dividend increases and solid cash flow expectations, the current market conditions have led to a negative sentiment surrounding industrial stocks.
This movement may indicate a cautious approach from investors, as they reassess their positions in light of the recent market trends. The upcoming earnings report and the overall economic outlook will be critical in determining the stock's future performance.
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Analyst Views on CAT
Wall Street analysts forecast CAT stock price to fall
15 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 774.200
Low
395.00
Averages
620.54
High
730.00
Current: 774.200
Low
395.00
Averages
620.54
High
730.00
About CAT
Caterpillar Inc. is a manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives. The Company operates through its various segments, namely Construction Industries, Resource Industries, and Energy & Transportation. It also provides financing and related services through its Financial Products segment. The Construction Industries segment is primarily responsible for supporting customers using machinery in infrastructure and building construction applications. The Resource Industries segment develops and manufactures high productivity equipment for both surface and underground mining operations, as well as provide hydraulic systems, electronics and software for its machines and engines. The Energy & Transportation segment offers product and services that includes reciprocating engines, generator sets, integrated systems and solutions, turbines and turbine-related services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strong Backlog: The company reported a record backlog of $51.2 billion in Q4 2023, indicating robust future demand, particularly bolstered by a power supply agreement with American Intelligence and Power, which will drive future growth.
- Okta's Market Leadership: As a leader in cybersecurity, Okta focuses on zero-trust identity and access management, forecasting revenue of around $2.9 billion in 2026, an 11% increase, demonstrating resilience in a competitive landscape.
- AI Security Solution Innovation: Okta is leveraging AI to enhance its Identity Threat Protection capabilities, detecting behavioral shifts to prevent bot-driven fraud, and despite competition from Microsoft and CrowdStrike, its leadership in AI security continues to strengthen.
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- Visa Financial Performance: Visa reported $10.9 billion in revenue for Q1 FY26 with a net profit margin of 53.7%, establishing a solid foundation for future dividend increases, having raised its dividend by 14% at the end of FY25.
- Shareholder Returns: In Q1, Visa distributed $5.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, nearly matching its $5.9 billion net income, indicating the company's flexibility to increase dividends amid strong profitability.
- Caterpillar Market Position: As a leader in the construction industry with over 100 years of experience, Caterpillar is positioned in a multi-year megatrend, particularly benefiting from soaring demand in AI infrastructure, leading to a 35% stock increase year-to-date.
- Performance Growth and Returns: Caterpillar achieved an 18% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 FY25, ending with a record backlog of $51 billion, while returning $7.9 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, alongside a 7% dividend increase last year.
See More
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- Position Adjustments: The firm closed its holdings in AT&T (T), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), Affirm Holdings (AFRM), and Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), reflecting a cautious outlook on these companies, which could impact their market performance.
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- Trimmed Holdings: The fund reduced its positions in Salesforce (CRM) from 2.01 million shares to 1.93 million and Microsoft (MSFT) from 1.10 million to 984,000 shares, indicating a cautious stance on future growth prospects which may affect stock price stability.
See More
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- Market Uncertainty: The stock market faced challenges last week due to unresolved questions affecting investor confidence.
- Impact of Lack of Answers: The absence of clear answers contributed to volatility and uncertainty in market performance.
See More
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- Swift Market Reaction: Steel and aluminum producers fell by 5-6% in early trading as investors began to price in the potential for increased foreign competition and diminished domestic pricing power, indicating market sensitivity to policy changes.
- Impact of Tariff Protection: Tariffs have provided a cushion for U.S. producers, supporting margins and limiting cheaper imports; if rolled back, this cushion thins, potentially compressing profit margins.
- Potential Cost Relief Opportunity: While metal producers' stocks declined, this shift hints at potential benefits for automakers, machinery manufacturers, and construction firms, as lower steel and aluminum input costs could improve downstream margins.
- Significance of Policy Changes: Policy shifts can reshape entire sectors overnight, with tariffs having defined the earnings power of U.S. steel and aluminum companies in recent years, and any hint of reversal could introduce significant market volatility.
See More
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- Regulatory Termination Impact: The Trump administration officially terminates the 2009 'endangerment finding,' effectively dismantling the legal foundation for federal climate regulations, which immediately eliminates greenhouse gas emission standards for cars and trucks, signaling the end of the government-led push for mandatory electric vehicle transitions.
- Tesla Revenue Risk: With the EPA losing authority to enforce tailpipe standards, Tesla's reliance on selling billions in regulatory credits will vanish, and analysts estimate this rollback could erase margin revenue for Tesla as competitors no longer need to pay for compliance.
- Traditional Manufacturers Benefit: Traditional automakers like Ford and General Motors are projected to save over $2,400 per vehicle, providing them with an immediate competitive advantage to pivot capital from high-cost EV mandates back into their high-margin gas-powered SUV and truck lineups.
- Climate Policy Shift: The EPA administrator announced the end of federal credits for automatic start-stop technology, marking the conclusion of 'climate participation trophies' for manufacturers, emphasizing that there will be no more incentives for technologies that cause cars to stall at red lights.
See More
