Will SpaceX Compete with AST SpaceMobile to Achieve Its 2026 Launch Goals?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 05 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ASTS?
Source: Marketbeat
Company Performance: AST Space Mobile has seen a significant increase in its stock, climbing over 240% since 2025, with shares up 24% year-to-date despite some volatility and setbacks in its launch schedule.
Government Contracts: The company was awarded a government contract for its scalable homeland defense services, which is expected to bolster its operations and credibility in the space communications sector.
Upcoming Launches: AST Space Mobile is preparing for the launch of its Bluebird 7 satellite, which is set to transport its next-generation technology into low Earth orbit, aiming to meet ambitious launch targets by the end of 2026.
Market Position and Challenges: Despite its growth, analysts express skepticism about AST's ability to meet its launch goals, with concerns about its current pace and the potential for missing targets, which could impact its long-term market position against competitors like SpaceX.
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Analyst Views on ASTS
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTS stock price to fall
9 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 82.220
Low
43.00
Averages
74.26
High
100.00
Current: 82.220
Low
43.00
Averages
74.26
High
100.00
About ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is engaged in building a global cellular broadband network in space to operate directly with standard, unmodified mobile devices based on its intellectual property (IP) and patent portfolio and designed for both commercial and government applications. The Company is engaged in designing and developing the constellation of BlueBird (BB) satellites and has planned space-based Cellular Broadband network distributed through a constellation of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Its SpaceMobile Service is being designed to provide high-speed cellular broadband services to end-users who are out of terrestrial cellular coverage using existing mobile devices. The Company intends to continue testing capabilities of the BW3 test satellite, including further testing with cellular service providers and the government. The Company has operations in India, Scotland, Spain, and Israel.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Medpace Holdings: Medpace Holdings (NASDAQ:MEDP) experienced a slump of 20.69% this week, driven by disappointing fourth-quarter results and multiple analyst firms lowering their price targets, which intensified negative sentiment around the stock.
- Zillow Group: Zillow Group (NASDAQ:Z) decreased by 20.89% this week due to mixed fourth-quarter financial results that failed to boost investor confidence, leading to downward pressure on its stock price.
- AST SpaceMobile: AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) fell 17.9% this week after announcing a $1 billion convertible senior notes offering, which was met with negative market reactions due to concerns over the implications of its financing plans.
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- Market Valuation Surge: Post-IPO, SpaceX's valuation is expected to reach $1.5 trillion, nearly doubling its recent $800 billion valuation, which will attract momentum traders and elevate the relative value of other space companies.
- Clear Funding Utilization: The raised funds will be directed towards developing AI data centers and the Starship reusable rocket, helping to reduce launch costs and advance NASA's lunar lander project, further solidifying SpaceX's leadership in the space industry.
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- Potential for Largest IPO: Musk aims to raise up to $50 billion through this IPO, which, if successful, would surpass Saudi Aramco's record of $29.4 billion set in 2019, marking it as the largest IPO in history and enhancing SpaceX's market position.
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- Financing Announcement: AST SpaceMobile revealed plans to repurchase approximately $300 million of existing convertible senior notes while concurrently offering about $1 billion in new notes, expected to occur next week, which triggered a negative reaction from shareholders and an 18.9% drop in stock price this week.
- Shareholder Dilution Risk: The financing will result in the issuance of approximately 1.15 million additional shares, and while it will reduce $300 million in debt and save over $50 million in interest payments, existing shareholders face the risk of direct dilution, potentially impacting their equity value.
- Capital Expenditure Needs: AST SpaceMobile still requires significant capital to complete its satellite array construction, planning to use part of the additional capital to accelerate the deployment of controlled spectrum bands globally, indicating urgency in expanding service capabilities.
- Market Volatility Warning: The company cautioned that common stock could experience
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- Starlink User Growth: The Starlink business has surpassed 9.2 million paying customers and generates over $10 billion in annual revenue, indicating strong growth potential in the satellite internet market and solidifying its market leadership.
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- Infrastructure Competition: The number of Starlink
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- IPO Plans: SpaceX is set to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) in 2026, with a projected valuation of $1.5 trillion, significantly enhancing its competitive edge in the space launch market, particularly against rivals like United Launch Alliance and Rocket Lab.
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- Infrastructure Competition: Starlink DTC is not only competing with AT&T and Verizon in wireless communications but is also expanding into internet backhaul services by activating 20 community gateways, which could reshape regulatory frameworks in the telecom industry.
- Market Impact: The impending IPO and rapid growth of Starlink DTC may exert significant pressure on AST SpaceMobile and its partners, especially as they have yet to launch beta services, indicating that SpaceX is swiftly establishing a dominant market position.
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- Astera Labs: Astera Labs (NASDAQ:ALAB) saw a significant decline of 23.74% this week after reporting fourth-quarter financial results that fell short of market expectations, raising investor concerns about its future profitability.
- Medpace Holdings: Medpace Holdings (NASDAQ:MEDP) experienced a slump of 20.69% this week, driven by disappointing fourth-quarter results and multiple analyst firms lowering their price targets, which intensified negative sentiment around the stock.
- Zillow Group: Zillow Group (NASDAQ:Z) decreased by 20.89% this week due to mixed fourth-quarter financial results that failed to boost investor confidence, leading to downward pressure on its stock price.
- AST SpaceMobile: AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) fell 17.9% this week after announcing a $1 billion convertible senior notes offering, which was met with negative market reactions due to concerns over the implications of its financing plans.
See More
Musk Proposes SpaceX IPO in 2026, Aiming for $50 Billion
- Historic IPO Anticipation: Musk plans a SpaceX IPO in 2026, aiming to raise up to $50 billion, which, if successful, would surpass Saudi Aramco's 2019 record of $29.4 billion, marking a significant milestone in space investing.
- Market Valuation Surge: Post-IPO, SpaceX's valuation is expected to reach $1.5 trillion, nearly doubling its recent $800 billion valuation, which will attract momentum traders and elevate the relative value of other space companies.
- Clear Funding Utilization: The raised funds will be directed towards developing AI data centers and the Starship reusable rocket, helping to reduce launch costs and advance NASA's lunar lander project, further solidifying SpaceX's leadership in the space industry.
- Market Competition Impact: While the SpaceX IPO may elevate the valuations of other space stocks, it could also lead to diminished investor confidence in these stocks, prompting them to sell off to raise funds for SpaceX, thereby affecting the dynamics of the entire space stock market.
See More
SpaceX's Planned IPO Could Become the Largest in History
- Investor Attention: SpaceX's planned IPO in 2026 is expected to draw investor interest towards other space stocks, potentially leading to a sell-off of those stocks in favor of SpaceX, thereby reshaping the space investment landscape.
- Potential for Largest IPO: Musk aims to raise up to $50 billion through this IPO, which, if successful, would surpass Saudi Aramco's record of $29.4 billion set in 2019, marking it as the largest IPO in history and enhancing SpaceX's market position.
- Market Valuation Impact: With a projected market valuation of $1.5 trillion, SpaceX's valuation at over 60 times sales will make other space companies like Firefly Aerospace and Planet Labs appear highly attractive, potentially driving their stock prices higher.
- Funding Utilization and Tech Development: The raised funds will be allocated towards developing AI data centers and refining the Starship reusable rocket, helping SpaceX reduce launch costs and solidify its dominant position in the space market, further widening the gap with competitors.
See More
AST SpaceMobile's Financing Plans Trigger Shareholder Sell-Off
- Financing Announcement: AST SpaceMobile revealed plans to repurchase approximately $300 million of existing convertible senior notes while concurrently offering about $1 billion in new notes, expected to occur next week, which triggered a negative reaction from shareholders and an 18.9% drop in stock price this week.
- Shareholder Dilution Risk: The financing will result in the issuance of approximately 1.15 million additional shares, and while it will reduce $300 million in debt and save over $50 million in interest payments, existing shareholders face the risk of direct dilution, potentially impacting their equity value.
- Capital Expenditure Needs: AST SpaceMobile still requires significant capital to complete its satellite array construction, planning to use part of the additional capital to accelerate the deployment of controlled spectrum bands globally, indicating urgency in expanding service capabilities.
- Market Volatility Warning: The company cautioned that common stock could experience
See More
SpaceX Plans 2026 IPO, Intensifying Competition
- IPO Valuation Impact: SpaceX is set to hold an IPO in 2026 with an expected valuation of $1.5 trillion, significantly enhancing its competitive edge, particularly against rivals like ULA and Rocket Lab, who will face increased pressure.
- Starlink User Growth: The Starlink business has surpassed 9.2 million paying customers and generates over $10 billion in annual revenue, indicating strong growth potential in the satellite internet market and solidifying its market leadership.
- DTC Satellite Expansion: SpaceX has launched 650 satellites for its direct-to-cell (DTC) service, covering 22 countries and becoming the largest 4G coverage provider globally, showcasing rapid expansion in the telecommunications sector.
- Infrastructure Competition: The number of Starlink
See More
SpaceX Plans IPO in 2026, Threatens Competitors
- IPO Plans: SpaceX is set to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) in 2026, with a projected valuation of $1.5 trillion, significantly enhancing its competitive edge in the space launch market, particularly against rivals like United Launch Alliance and Rocket Lab.
- Starlink DTC Growth: SpaceX's Starlink DTC business now covers over 12 million users across 22 countries, generating more than $10 billion in annual revenue, showcasing rapid expansion potential in the telecom sector, with a total addressable market projected at 400 million users.
- Infrastructure Competition: Starlink DTC is not only competing with AT&T and Verizon in wireless communications but is also expanding into internet backhaul services by activating 20 community gateways, which could reshape regulatory frameworks in the telecom industry.
- Market Impact: The impending IPO and rapid growth of Starlink DTC may exert significant pressure on AST SpaceMobile and its partners, especially as they have yet to launch beta services, indicating that SpaceX is swiftly establishing a dominant market position.
See More
