What's Going On With Marathon Petroleum Shares Today?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 30 2024
0mins
Should l Buy MPLX?
Source: earning
- Marathon Petroleum Corporation Q1 FY24 Results: MPC shares are trading lower after reporting revenue of $33.211 billion, beating expectations, but with a decline in adjusted EBITDA to $3.26 billion.
- Refining & Marketing Performance: Refining operating costs per barrel increased to $6.14, refined product sales volume decreased, and adjusted EBITDA for this segment dropped sharply to $1.874 billion.
- Financials and Shareholder Returns: Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $2.78, above consensus, with the company returning $2.2 billion through share repurchases and $299 million via dividends in Q1.
- Cash Position and Share Repurchase Authorization: Marathon Petroleum had $7.6 billion in cash as of March-end, repurchased $0.8 billion of company shares through April 26, and approved an additional $5 billion share repurchase authorization.
- Outlook and Stock Exposure: The company expects second-quarter refining operating costs per barrel of $4.95 and refinery throughputs of 2,965 mbpd. Investors can access the stock through ETFs like IEO and FTXN.
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Analyst Views on MPLX
Wall Street analysts forecast MPLX stock price to rise
7 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 57.170
Low
55.00
Averages
58.14
High
62.00
Current: 57.170
Low
55.00
Averages
58.14
High
62.00
About MPLX
MPLX LP is a diversified, large-cap master limited partnership that owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets and provides fuels distribution services. The Company's segments include Crude Oil and Products Logistics, and Natural Gas and NGL Services. The Crude Oil and Products Logistics segment is primarily engaged in the gathering, transportation, storage and distribution of crude oil, refined products, other hydrocarbon-based products, and renewables. These assets consist of a network of approximately 14,766 miles of wholly and jointly-owned pipelines and associated storage assets, refining logistics assets at 13 refineries, 88 terminals including rail and truck racks, one export terminal, storage caverns, tank farm assets, an inland marine business and a fuels distribution business. The Natural Gas and NGL Services segment provides wellhead to market services including gathering, processing and transportation of natural gas and natural gas liquids.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
MPLX Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights Highlight Growth and Distribution Plans
- Strong Financial Performance: MPLX reported over $1.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026, enabling a return of over $1.1 billion to unitholders, which reflects robust cash flow and profitability, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Project Progress: With Secretariat I expected to come online in April, Harmon Creek III entering service in Q3, and the Titan gas treating facility achieving over 400 million cubic feet per day capacity, the successful execution of these projects is set to drive year-over-year growth in 2026 beyond that of 2025.
- Pipeline Expansion Plans: The Blackcomb natural gas pipeline is anticipated to enter service in Q4, alongside the BANGL pipeline expansion to 300,000 barrels per day, which will further enhance the company's transportation capacity and market competitiveness.
- Increased Distribution Confidence: Management reiterated confidence in a 12.5% distribution increase, setting a financial metric of coverage not falling below 1.3x, indicating stability and sustainability in future cash flows and distribution policies.
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MPLX Q1 Earnings Miss Expectations with $0.90 EPS
- Earnings Performance: MPLX's Q1 GAAP earnings per unit of $0.90 missed expectations by $0.15, indicating challenges in profitability that may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Revenue Decline: The company reported revenue of $3.04 billion, a 2.6% year-over-year decrease, falling short by $50 million, reflecting weak market demand that could negatively impact future growth prospects.
- Strong Cash Flow: Despite the revenue decline, MPLX generated $1.4 billion in distributable cash flow, enabling a return of $1.1 billion in capital, demonstrating robust cash management that helps maintain shareholder trust.
- Ongoing Strategic Execution: The company is expanding its Permian sour gas treating capacity and natural gas pipelines while progressing on the Harmon Creek III processing plant, indicating that despite short-term performance issues, its long-term strategy remains on track.
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MPLX Reports Q1 2026 Net Income Decline Amid Market Challenges
- Net Income Decline: MPLX reported a net income of $912 million for Q1 2026, down 19.9% from $1,126 million in Q1 2025, primarily due to impacts from derivatives and interest expenses, reflecting challenges in the market environment.
- Adjusted EBITDA Changes: The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 was $1.729 billion, slightly down from $1.757 billion in Q1 2025, despite an increase in the crude oil and products logistics segment, indicating the company's efforts in cost control.
- Cash Flow and Distribution: MPLX generated $1.347 billion in net cash from operating activities this quarter, with distributable cash flow at $1.408 billion and a distribution coverage ratio of 1.3x, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain distributions while sustaining healthy cash flow.
- Strategic Investment Plans: MPLX plans to invest $2.4 billion in its organic growth capital program in 2026, focusing on natural gas infrastructure in Texas and Pennsylvania to support a projected 12.5% annual distribution growth, reflecting confidence in long-term market demand.
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MPLX to Announce Q1 Earnings on May 5
- Earnings Announcement: MPLX is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings report on May 5 before market open, with consensus EPS estimated at $1.08 and revenue expected at $3.09 billion, reflecting a 1% year-over-year decline.
- Performance Analysis: Over the past year, MPLX has exceeded EPS and revenue estimates 75% of the time, indicating strong profitability and market confidence in its operations.
- Revision Trends: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates, with two downward adjustments, while revenue estimates also saw no upward revisions and three downward adjustments, suggesting a cautious market outlook.
- Capital Plan Outlook: MPLX signals a $2.4 billion capital plan for 2026, with 90% allocated to natural gas and NGL services, aiming for mid-teens return targets, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth opportunities.
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Energy Transfer's Unit Price Poised for Significant Upside
- Price Surge Potential: Energy Transfer's unit price has already increased over 20% this year, nearing $20, and is expected to rise further due to higher oil prices, with a target of $25 representing a more than 25% increase.
- Earnings Growth Drivers: Although Energy Transfer does not produce oil, approximately 10% of its earnings are commodity price-linked, which are expected to rise with oil prices, while increased volumes through its liquids pipelines and marine export terminals will further boost revenue.
- LNG Project Restart Possibility: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global LNG supplies, prompting Energy Transfer to reconsider its Lake Charles LNG project, with potential discussions with partners that could add long-term value to its gas pipeline business.
- Valuation Upside Potential: Despite the price surge, Energy Transfer still trades at a low valuation, and as its financial position improves and expansion projects come online, the market is likely to reassess its valuation, driving it closer to peer averages.
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Energy Transfer's Optimistic Outlook Amid Rising Oil Prices
- Oil Price Growth Catalyst: Energy Transfer (ET) is projected to achieve earnings growth of 9% to 11.5% this year, driven by rising oil prices, particularly as potential U.S. military actions against Iran could lead to significant price spikes, enhancing the company's profitability.
- LNG Project Restart Potential: Although the Lake Charles LNG project was suspended last year, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting 20% of global LNG supplies, may prompt Energy Transfer to find a new partner to restart the project, adding long-term value to its gas pipeline business.
- Increased Pipeline Volumes: With U.S. energy exports surging due to geopolitical tensions, Energy Transfer expects significant increases in volumes across its liquids pipelines and marine export terminals, which will drive higher fee-based income and further boost unit prices.
- Valuation Upside Anticipation: Despite a more than 20% rise in unit price this year, Energy Transfer still trades at a discount compared to large-scale energy midstream companies, suggesting that the market may soon recognize its strong financial position and growth prospects, potentially driving unit prices towards the $25 target.
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MPLX Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights Highlight Growth and Distribution Plans
- Strong Financial Performance: MPLX reported over $1.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026, enabling a return of over $1.1 billion to unitholders, which reflects robust cash flow and profitability, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Project Progress: With Secretariat I expected to come online in April, Harmon Creek III entering service in Q3, and the Titan gas treating facility achieving over 400 million cubic feet per day capacity, the successful execution of these projects is set to drive year-over-year growth in 2026 beyond that of 2025.
- Pipeline Expansion Plans: The Blackcomb natural gas pipeline is anticipated to enter service in Q4, alongside the BANGL pipeline expansion to 300,000 barrels per day, which will further enhance the company's transportation capacity and market competitiveness.
- Increased Distribution Confidence: Management reiterated confidence in a 12.5% distribution increase, setting a financial metric of coverage not falling below 1.3x, indicating stability and sustainability in future cash flows and distribution policies.
See More
MPLX Q1 Earnings Miss Expectations with $0.90 EPS
- Earnings Performance: MPLX's Q1 GAAP earnings per unit of $0.90 missed expectations by $0.15, indicating challenges in profitability that may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Revenue Decline: The company reported revenue of $3.04 billion, a 2.6% year-over-year decrease, falling short by $50 million, reflecting weak market demand that could negatively impact future growth prospects.
- Strong Cash Flow: Despite the revenue decline, MPLX generated $1.4 billion in distributable cash flow, enabling a return of $1.1 billion in capital, demonstrating robust cash management that helps maintain shareholder trust.
- Ongoing Strategic Execution: The company is expanding its Permian sour gas treating capacity and natural gas pipelines while progressing on the Harmon Creek III processing plant, indicating that despite short-term performance issues, its long-term strategy remains on track.
See More
MPLX Reports Q1 2026 Net Income Decline Amid Market Challenges
- Net Income Decline: MPLX reported a net income of $912 million for Q1 2026, down 19.9% from $1,126 million in Q1 2025, primarily due to impacts from derivatives and interest expenses, reflecting challenges in the market environment.
- Adjusted EBITDA Changes: The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 was $1.729 billion, slightly down from $1.757 billion in Q1 2025, despite an increase in the crude oil and products logistics segment, indicating the company's efforts in cost control.
- Cash Flow and Distribution: MPLX generated $1.347 billion in net cash from operating activities this quarter, with distributable cash flow at $1.408 billion and a distribution coverage ratio of 1.3x, demonstrating the company's ability to maintain distributions while sustaining healthy cash flow.
- Strategic Investment Plans: MPLX plans to invest $2.4 billion in its organic growth capital program in 2026, focusing on natural gas infrastructure in Texas and Pennsylvania to support a projected 12.5% annual distribution growth, reflecting confidence in long-term market demand.
See More
MPLX to Announce Q1 Earnings on May 5
- Earnings Announcement: MPLX is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings report on May 5 before market open, with consensus EPS estimated at $1.08 and revenue expected at $3.09 billion, reflecting a 1% year-over-year decline.
- Performance Analysis: Over the past year, MPLX has exceeded EPS and revenue estimates 75% of the time, indicating strong profitability and market confidence in its operations.
- Revision Trends: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates, with two downward adjustments, while revenue estimates also saw no upward revisions and three downward adjustments, suggesting a cautious market outlook.
- Capital Plan Outlook: MPLX signals a $2.4 billion capital plan for 2026, with 90% allocated to natural gas and NGL services, aiming for mid-teens return targets, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth opportunities.
See More
Energy Transfer's Unit Price Poised for Significant Upside
- Price Surge Potential: Energy Transfer's unit price has already increased over 20% this year, nearing $20, and is expected to rise further due to higher oil prices, with a target of $25 representing a more than 25% increase.
- Earnings Growth Drivers: Although Energy Transfer does not produce oil, approximately 10% of its earnings are commodity price-linked, which are expected to rise with oil prices, while increased volumes through its liquids pipelines and marine export terminals will further boost revenue.
- LNG Project Restart Possibility: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global LNG supplies, prompting Energy Transfer to reconsider its Lake Charles LNG project, with potential discussions with partners that could add long-term value to its gas pipeline business.
- Valuation Upside Potential: Despite the price surge, Energy Transfer still trades at a low valuation, and as its financial position improves and expansion projects come online, the market is likely to reassess its valuation, driving it closer to peer averages.
See More
Energy Transfer's Optimistic Outlook Amid Rising Oil Prices
- Oil Price Growth Catalyst: Energy Transfer (ET) is projected to achieve earnings growth of 9% to 11.5% this year, driven by rising oil prices, particularly as potential U.S. military actions against Iran could lead to significant price spikes, enhancing the company's profitability.
- LNG Project Restart Potential: Although the Lake Charles LNG project was suspended last year, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting 20% of global LNG supplies, may prompt Energy Transfer to find a new partner to restart the project, adding long-term value to its gas pipeline business.
- Increased Pipeline Volumes: With U.S. energy exports surging due to geopolitical tensions, Energy Transfer expects significant increases in volumes across its liquids pipelines and marine export terminals, which will drive higher fee-based income and further boost unit prices.
- Valuation Upside Anticipation: Despite a more than 20% rise in unit price this year, Energy Transfer still trades at a discount compared to large-scale energy midstream companies, suggesting that the market may soon recognize its strong financial position and growth prospects, potentially driving unit prices towards the $25 target.
See More
