Should You Buy MPLX LP (MPLX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
56.240
1 Day change
0.88%
52 Week Range
54.870
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
MPLX is NOT a good buy right now for an impatient investor. Despite being short-term oversold, the prevailing trend signals are bearish (negative/expanding MACD, bearish moving-average stack), options tape shows heavy put volume, and the pattern-based forward probabilities skew negative over the next week/month. I would wait rather than buy pre-market here; if already holding, this is a HOLD (income/supportive distribution), not an add.
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Bearish. The moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying price is in a broader downtrend and rallies may be sold.
Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.216 and negatively expanding, confirming downside momentum is strengthening.
Mean-reversion signal: RSI(6) at 14.52 is deeply oversold, which can produce a short-term bounce, but oversold conditions can persist in downtrends.
Levels: Provided pivot/resistance band (Pivot 49.801; R1 51.21; R2 52.081) sits well below the current pre-market (~56.09), suggesting price is extended vs those reference levels and vulnerable to pullback toward prior support zones.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Quant/Pattern read-through: Similar candlestick-pattern analysis implies a 70% chance of -0.6% next day, -5.66% next week, and -4.75% next month—skewing risk/reward against an impatient entry today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning vs flow: Open-interest put/call of 0.63 suggests more call positioning outstanding (mildly bullish/less hedged longer-term), but today’s put/call volume of 4.45 signals aggressive near-term put demand (bearish/hedging).
Volatility: 30D IV ~24.09 vs historical vol ~15.4, but IV percentile is only 4 (very low vs its own history), indicating the options market is relatively complacent/cheap-vol—often not the best setup if downside risk is rising into catalysts.
Liquidity/flow context: Today’s options volume (1979) is below the 5D avg (2417) and near the 10D avg (1909), so the bearish put skew stands out even without a volume surge.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
- Income support: MPLX declared a quarterly distribution of $1.0765/unit (Q4 2025), reinforcing the yield/income thesis.
- Prior operational/financial momentum: Last reported quarter showed strong YoY EPS and net income growth.
- Some supportive Wall St views: RBC maintained Outperform and raised PT to $60; Morgan Stanley raised PT to $62 (Equal Weight).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
indicates near-term caution.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue $2.949B (+4.46% YoY) shows modest top-line growth; Net income $1.544B (+49.76% YoY) and EPS $1.52 (+50.50% YoY) show strong bottom-line expansion. Gross margin declined to 43.85% (-2.14% YoY), indicating some margin compression even as earnings rose.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Mixed to slightly less bullish at the margin. Into late 2025, multiple firms raised price targets (Barclays to $55, RBC to $60, Morgan Stanley to $62), but on 2026-01-05 Raymond James downgraded MPLX to Market Perform from Outperform (no PT), signaling reduced conviction after prior momentum.
Wall St pros: Visible distribution/income appeal, contracted/cash-flow characteristics typical of midstream, and guided growth visibility (per RBC).
Wall St cons: After a strong run/momentum year, execution and cash-flow delivery become the key differentiator; the downgrade suggests upside may be more limited from here versus peers.
Wall Street analysts forecast MPLX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MPLX is 58.14 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 62 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MPLX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MPLX is 58.14 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 62 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 55.750
Low
55
Averages
58.14
High
62
Current: 55.750
Low
55
Averages
58.14
High
62
Raymond James
Justin Jenkins
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
Reason
Raymond James
Justin Jenkins
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Raymond James analyst Justin Jenkins downgraded MPLX to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target. The firm adjusted ratings in the midstream supplier group heading into 2026. Midstream enters 2026 with momentum, but "constructive" share performances 2025 "means the real work now shifts to execution," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Raymond James believes investor focus is now centered on how individual companies translate macro tailwinds into realizable cash flow.
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
maintain
$60 -> $62
2025-11-25
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$60 -> $62
2025-11-25
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on MPLX to $62 from $60 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. AI scrutiny has influenced recent broader market direction, but midstream and renewable infrastructure stocks offer contracted cash flow protection, the analyst argues in the firm's latest "Infrastructure Weekly."
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for MPLX
