US-Iran Tensions May Not Impact Stock Market
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 19 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Market Resilience: Despite rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the stock market has shown strong performance, with the S&P 500 up about 0.6% this week, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq gained 0.3% and 0.9%, respectively, indicating investor resilience to geopolitical conflicts.
- Rising Oil Prices: Crude oil prices have surged, with West Texas Intermediate futures increasing approximately 6% this week to trade above $66 per barrel, while Brent futures also rose about 6%, reflecting concerns over potential supply disruptions due to military conflict.
- Historical Data Insights: Barclays' trading desk analysis shows that since September 1980, the S&P 500 has remained largely unchanged the day after geopolitical events, with slight gains on the day before and the day of such events, suggesting a generally optimistic market response.
- Investor Strategy Adjustments: Although the stock market is performing well, the S&P 500 is less than 2% below record levels, indicating that investors may consider trimming equity positions in anticipation of potential military escalation and its impact on market volatility.
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Analyst Views on XOM
Wall Street analysts forecast XOM stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 160.780
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
Current: 160.780
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
About XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation is an energy provider and chemical manufacturer. The Company’s principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas; the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a wide variety of specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and other new business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima systems, carbon materials, and lithium. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments manufacture and sell petroleum products and petrochemicals. Energy Products segment includes fuels, aromatics, and catalysts and licensing. Chemical Products segment consists of olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. Specialty Products segment includes finished lubricants, basestocks and waxes, synthetics, and elastomers and resins.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Asia-Pacific Market Reaction: While the Australian and Hong Kong markets were closed for the Easter holiday, Japan's Nikkei 225 futures rose to 53,285 in Chicago, demonstrating investor optimism about market prospects.
- U.S. Market Volatility: U.S. major indexes experienced volatility amid rising oil prices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining by 61.07 points, yet the S&P 500 managed a slight increase of 0.11%, showcasing the market's adaptability to oil price fluctuations.
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See More
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- Dividend Stability: Chevron has raised its dividend for 39 consecutive years, currently offering a forward yield of 3.6%, which not only reflects the company's strong cash flow management but also boosts investor confidence in its long-term investment value, especially amid oil price volatility.
- Cost Control Measures: To stabilize margins, Chevron plans to cut structural costs by $3 billion to $4 billion by the end of 2026, a move that will help enhance its profitability in a competitive energy market and provide funding for future investments.
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See More
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- Changing Market Expectations: Initially, the market expected the conflict with Iran to be short-lived, but it now appears the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed for an extended period, leading to sustained high oil prices and delays in restarting production once shipping resumes.
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See More
