US Stagflation Risk Rises to 40% Amid High Inflation and Unemployment
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 14 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Rising Stagflation Risk: Kalshi traders indicate that the likelihood of the US economy facing stagflation has surged from 11% to nearly 40%, reflecting the dual pressures of high inflation and unemployment that could hinder economic growth.
- Dismal Inflation Data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.8% year-on-year increase in the consumer price index for April, the highest since May 2023, while wholesale prices also saw their largest annual rise since 2022, indicating escalating inflationary pressures.
- Stable Unemployment Rate: The latest data shows the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in April, remaining above 4% since May 2024, suggesting a weak labor market that could adversely affect consumer spending and economic recovery.
- Pessimistic Economic Outlook: Kalshi traders estimate the chances of a soft landing at only 21%, a significant drop from 55% in early March, reflecting diminished market confidence in future economic performance and potentially prompting investors to adopt more cautious strategies.
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Analyst Views on RJF
Wall Street analysts forecast RJF stock price to rise
9 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 142.000
Low
176.00
Averages
184.00
High
196.00
Current: 142.000
Low
176.00
Averages
184.00
High
196.00
About RJF
Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a diversified financial services company that provides services to individuals, corporations and municipalities. The Company's segments include Private Client Group (PCG), Capital Markets, Asset Management, Bank and Other. PCG segment provides financial planning, investment advisory, and securities transaction services to clients through financial advisors. Capital Markets segment conducts investment banking, institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients. Bank segment includes Raymond James Bank, a Florida-chartered state member bank, and TriState Capital Bank, a Pennsylvania-chartered state member bank. Other segment includes corporate cash balances and its private equity investments.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Rising Stagflation Risk: Kalshi traders indicate that the likelihood of the US economy facing stagflation has surged from 11% to nearly 40%, reflecting the dual pressures of high inflation and unemployment that could hinder economic growth.
- Dismal Inflation Data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.8% year-on-year increase in the consumer price index for April, the highest since May 2023, while wholesale prices also saw their largest annual rise since 2022, indicating escalating inflationary pressures.
- Stable Unemployment Rate: The latest data shows the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in April, remaining above 4% since May 2024, suggesting a weak labor market that could adversely affect consumer spending and economic recovery.
- Pessimistic Economic Outlook: Kalshi traders estimate the chances of a soft landing at only 21%, a significant drop from 55% in early March, reflecting diminished market confidence in future economic performance and potentially prompting investors to adopt more cautious strategies.
See More
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- Dividend Yield: The forward yield of 1.4% reflects the company's appeal in the current market environment, potentially enhancing investor interest in its stock and supporting price stability.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend will be payable on July 15, with a record date of July 1 and an ex-dividend date also set for July 1, providing investors with a clear timeline to inform their investment decisions.
- Expense Target and Growth Outlook: Raymond James has set a non-compensation expense target of approximately $2.3 billion while expecting about 1% fee growth in Q3, indicating the company's focus on cost control while remaining optimistic about future revenue growth potential.
See More
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- Challenges for Cummins: Cummins (CMI), with a market cap of $92.16 billion, has seen flat sales over the past two years, indicating a lack of growth, while its gross margin of 24.7% reflects high production costs that impact profitability, and declining returns on capital suggest its historical profit centers are aging.
- Masco's Growth Struggles: Masco (MAS), valued at $13.85 billion, has shown no organic revenue growth over the past two years, with projected sales growth of only 1.7% for the next 12 months, indicating sluggish demand, while shrinking returns on capital suggest increasing competition is eroding profitability, with a stock price of $69.87 implying a forward P/E ratio of 15.9.
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- Market Trends Analysis: While the S&P 500 includes industry leaders, not all stocks are performing well, prompting investors to be cautious about the potential risks associated with Cummins and Masco, while Raymond James emerges as a stock to watch, demonstrating strong fundamentals and market momentum.
See More
Analysts Raise Price Target for Disney Amid Strong Q2 Results
- Strong Earnings Beat: On May 7, Raymond James raised the price target for The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) from $115 to $119, indicating that the company delivered better-than-expected Q2 results and slightly increased FY26 EPS guidance to 12% growth, which bolsters market confidence in its future performance.
- Double-Digit Growth Outlook: Analysts anticipate a double-digit EPS CAGR for FY26-FY27, supported by Disney's strong franchise IP, resilient sports exposure, scaled streaming ecosystem, and robust cash flows from Parks and Experiences, highlighting the company's diverse revenue streams.
- Streaming as Growth Driver: While Experiences remain the largest profit contributor, analysts noted that growth in streaming is increasingly driving operating income, showcasing Disney's successful diversification of its revenue sources and adaptation to changing market dynamics.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: With moderating macro concerns, analysts are increasingly optimistic about the FY26 outlook for the second half, believing that Disney's business model and market positioning will continue to provide substantial growth opportunities.
See More
Raymond James Financial Reports Record Operating Data for April 2026
- Client Asset Growth: Raymond James Financial reported client assets under administration reaching $1.87 trillion in April 2026, reflecting a 22% year-over-year increase and a 6% month-over-month rise, indicating strong market performance and client confidence.
- Private Client Group Performance: The Private Client Group's fee-based account assets surged 28% year-over-year to $1.12 trillion, showcasing the company's appeal among high-net-worth clients and an increase in market share.
- Financial Assets Management: Financial assets under management rose 22% to $298.6 billion, highlighting the company's robust growth potential in asset management, despite flat cash sweep balances year-over-year.
- Future Outlook: While investment banking pipelines and client activity remain strong, CEO Paul Shoukry noted that deal closings may face timing uncertainties, which could impact future performance.
See More
Can the AI Rally Sustain Amid Inflation Fears?
- Market Performance Review: The S&P 500 has surged approximately 19% since its March low, surpassing 7,500 for the first time this week, reflecting a revival in enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, yet the absence of cyclical sectors raises concerns.
- Internal and External Pressures: Despite a 3% rise in the S&P 500 this month, it remains nearly flat on an equal-weight basis, with the financial sector being the worst performer year-to-date, down over 6%, indicating potential impacts of high inflation on the economy.
- Nvidia Earnings Outlook: Nvidia is set to report earnings, with high expectations that CEO Jensen Huang will once again deliver a beat, although its market cap nearing $6 trillion marks a historic high, its valuation appears relatively attractive compared to peers.
- Retail Market Dynamics: Retailers like Walmart and Target are about to release earnings, and the low consumer sentiment may affect sales performance, particularly for lower-income consumers under pressure from rising oil prices, with Walmart's low-price strategy potentially giving it a competitive edge.
See More
US Stagflation Risk Rises to 40% Amid High Inflation and Unemployment
- Rising Stagflation Risk: Kalshi traders indicate that the likelihood of the US economy facing stagflation has surged from 11% to nearly 40%, reflecting the dual pressures of high inflation and unemployment that could hinder economic growth.
- Dismal Inflation Data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.8% year-on-year increase in the consumer price index for April, the highest since May 2023, while wholesale prices also saw their largest annual rise since 2022, indicating escalating inflationary pressures.
- Stable Unemployment Rate: The latest data shows the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in April, remaining above 4% since May 2024, suggesting a weak labor market that could adversely affect consumer spending and economic recovery.
- Pessimistic Economic Outlook: Kalshi traders estimate the chances of a soft landing at only 21%, a significant drop from 55% in early March, reflecting diminished market confidence in future economic performance and potentially prompting investors to adopt more cautious strategies.
See More
Raymond James Financial Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.54
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Raymond James Financial has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.54 per share, consistent with previous distributions, indicating the company's stable cash flow and profitability, which is likely to attract income-seeking investors.
- Dividend Yield: The forward yield of 1.4% reflects the company's appeal in the current market environment, potentially enhancing investor interest in its stock and supporting price stability.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend will be payable on July 15, with a record date of July 1 and an ex-dividend date also set for July 1, providing investors with a clear timeline to inform their investment decisions.
- Expense Target and Growth Outlook: Raymond James has set a non-compensation expense target of approximately $2.3 billion while expecting about 1% fee growth in Q3, indicating the company's focus on cost control while remaining optimistic about future revenue growth potential.
See More
