United Airlines Lowers 2026 Earnings Forecast Amid Fuel Cost Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 22 2026
0mins
Source: stocktwits
- Earnings Forecast Cut: United Airlines now expects second quarter earnings of $1-$2 per share and full year earnings of $7-$11, a significant reduction from the previous forecast of $12-$14, reflecting increased pressure from fuel costs.
- Fuel Cost Pressure: The company reported a $340 million increase in fuel expenses compared to the same quarter in 2025, and anticipates recovering 40-50% of these costs by the second quarter of 2026; however, if oil prices escalate, earnings could fall to the lower end of the guidance range.
- Flight Schedule Adjustments: To manage rising fuel costs, United plans to fly about 5% less in 2026, resulting in flat total capacity in the third and fourth quarters compared to last year, with potential for further flight cuts or additions based on customer demand.
- Market Opportunities: Despite uncertainties, CEO Scott Kirby expressed optimism that changes in the airline industry could create opportunities for United, reiterating the company's commitment to future growth.
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Analyst Views on UAL
Wall Street analysts forecast UAL stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 105.730
Low
115.00
Averages
139.07
High
156.00
Current: 105.730
Low
115.00
Averages
139.07
High
156.00
About UAL
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is a holding company. The Company transports people and cargo throughout North America and to destinations in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East and Latin America. The Company, through United Airlines, Inc., and its regional carriers, operates across over six continents, with hubs at Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD), Denver International Airport (DEN), George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH), Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), San Francisco International Airport (SFO), Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) and A.B. Won Pat International Airport (GUM). Its hub and spoke system allow it to transport passengers between a large number of destinations with frequent services. The Company has contractual relationships with various regional carriers to provide regional aircraft service branded as United Express. It provides freight and mail transportation services (Air Cargo).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Defense of American Airlines Bid: Kirby defended the failed bid for American Airlines, asserting that the deal would have benefited consumers, yet the opposition from American's management rendered the transaction impractical, highlighting the complexities of competition and collaboration within the industry.
- Position on JetBlue Airways: When asked about the potential acquisition of JetBlue if it enters Chapter 11, Kirby expressed that it is unlikely due to JetBlue's cash flow and unencumbered assets, reflecting United's stringent criteria for potential acquisition targets.
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- Rising Maintenance Costs: The higher-than-expected failure rates of new engines have led airlines to face more frequent unscheduled maintenance, eroding the anticipated 15% fuel savings and negatively impacting overall profitability.
- Market Supply-Demand Imbalance: Despite improvements in new engine production capabilities, ongoing delays in aircraft production have driven up the market value of older engines, with prices for the CFM56 engine increasing by 17% since 2019, exacerbating financial pressures on airlines.
- Manufacturers' Insufficient Investment: While manufacturers like GE Aerospace claim to be increasing output and improving product quality, industry leaders express disappointment over the profitability of manufacturers, urging them to stop high pricing strategies and focus on producing more reliable engines to meet airline demands.
See More
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- Strong Market Demand: Despite rising fares, travel demand remains robust, and the revenue lost from grounded aircraft adds financial pressure on the industry, particularly with an anticipated $100 billion increase in fuel expenses this year.
- Manufacturers' Insufficient Investment: Although engine manufacturers have heavily invested in expanding maintenance capabilities, production delays have kept older engine values high, leading to a shortage of engines that affects future production plans and overall industry stability.
See More
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- Tight Engine Supply: Despite RTX's Pratt & Whitney and GE Aerospace ramping up investments to enhance repair and production capacity, hundreds of A320neo planes are grounded globally due to long wait times for engine inspections and repairs, indicating that supply pressures are expected to continue for at least another couple of years.
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