Trump Pushes Venezuelan Oil Production, Pressuring U.S. Oil Company Profits
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 09 2026
0mins
Source: Newsfilter
- Market Pressure Intensifies: Trump has urged U.S. oil companies to boost Venezuelan oil production, with an expected influx of 30 to 50 million barrels into the U.S. market, which will exacerbate domestic price pressures and further squeeze profit margins for American oil firms.
- Industry Response: With U.S. oil prices already below $65 per barrel, many companies are facing layoffs and spending cuts, and U.S. production is projected to decline from 13.61 million bpd in 2025 to 13.53 million bpd in 2026, highlighting the industry's fragility.
- Technological and Market Challenges: Although technological advancements have allowed producers to extract more oil at lower prices, analysts warn that the marginal benefits of these technologies may be nearing their limits, restricting future production growth.
- OPEC Strategy Adjustment: OPEC+ has opted to pause production target increases for the first quarter of 2026, indicating that with ample global supplies, the competition for market share will intensify, potentially further impacting the market position of U.S. shale producers.
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Analyst Views on COP
Wall Street analysts forecast COP stock price to rise
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 110.830
Low
98.00
Averages
115.67
High
133.00
Current: 110.830
Low
98.00
Averages
115.67
High
133.00
About COP
ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company. Its Alaska segment primarily explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. The Lower 48 segment consists of operations located in the 48 contiguous states in the United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Canadian operations consist of the Surmont oil sands development in Alberta, the liquids-rich Montney unconventional play in British Columbia and commercial operations. The Europe, Middle East and North Africa segment consists of operations principally located in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, Qatar, Libya, Equatorial Guinea and commercial and terminalling operations in the United Kingdom. Asia Pacific segment has exploration and production operations in China, Malaysia, Australia and commercial operations in China, Singapore and Japan. Other International segment includes interests in Colombia as well as contingencies associated with prior operations in other countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Surge in Oil Sales Revenue: Wright revealed that Venezuelan oil sales revenue has now topped $1 billion, with an expected additional $5 billion in crude sales through short-term agreements in the coming months, indicating strong U.S. interest and intent to rebuild Venezuela's oil market.
- Political Recognition Complexity: Although the U.S. does not officially recognize the government led by Delcy Rodríguez, Wright indicated that elections and a transition of power may occur during Trump's term, which will influence the U.S.'s ultimate recognition of the Venezuelan government.
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See More
