Treasury yields inch higher as traders absorb Fed minutes, await economic data
- U.S. bond yields: Rose slightly as investors awaited jobless benefit claims data and sector surveys for insights on the U.S. economy's health.
- Federal Reserve's May FOMC meeting: Minutes revealed officials' cautious approach, indicating a need to wait for more disinflation signs before considering rate cuts.
- Investors' reaction: Continuation of absorbing information from the Fed meeting minutes released on Wednesday.
- Market outlook: Investors are closely monitoring economic indicators and Fed's stance on potential policy changes.
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- Political Struggles: Prime Minister Keir Starmer is currently facing significant challenges regarding his political future.
- Market Sentiment: There is a prevailing belief in the market that Starmer's departure from leadership is imminent.
- Budget Expectations: The U.K. government aimed to present a budget with minimal controversy to maintain political stability.
- Economic Credibility: There was a focus on demonstrating economic credibility to alleviate concerns from voters and the bond market.
Bank of England's Rate Decision: The Bank of England has kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.75%, diverging from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, which recently cut rates, as the U.K. faces stagnant growth and rising inflation.
Economic Outlook for the U.K.: With inflation increasing to 2.6% and GDP declining, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey indicated potential future rate cuts in 2025, while the dollar strengthens against the pound due to differing monetary policies.
Bank of England's Rate Decision: The Bank of England is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 4.75% this month, diverging from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank due to a challenging economic outlook for the U.K., characterized by stagnant growth and rising inflation.
Economic Indicators: Recent data shows U.K. inflation increased to 2.6% in November, while GDP fell by 0.1% in October, contributing to a stronger dollar as investors find U.S. assets more attractive compared to the U.K.
- CPI Day Observance: Mention of CPI day and a promise of more information on the key report.
- Brief Window to Bet Against USD: Karen Reichgott Fishman from Goldman Sachs suggests a brief opportunity to bet against the U.S. dollar if inflation behaves as expected.
- Dollar Surpasses 2023 Highs: The dollar has exceeded highs from 2023 according to the senior currency strategist.
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